Championship Week Notebook and Other Highlighted Games (3/3/2012)

-250 teams remain…I think. For a list of all of today’s action, please see Chad’s very informative post below.

-A couple of surprises last night, but nothing to Earth shattering. LMU fell to San Francisco in the WCC quarters. LMU’s profile is nowhere close to being tournament worthy, but they’d played so well down the stretch that I thought they may actually be able to win the conference tournament and capture the automatic bid. Nevertheless, the best they can hope for now is the NIT. The semis of this tournament should be great. San Francisco will face Saint Mary’s, and Gonzaga will face BYU. Some great storylines. San Francisco needs the automatic bid, BYU is on the bubble and could use another big win to feel safe, and Saint Mary’s and Gonzaga potentially facing each other in the finals.

-Florida Gulf Coast University first opened their doors as an institution in 1997. They’ve had athletics for even less time, and have never had a winning season in men’s basketball. Unless they reach the Sweet Sixteen, they won’t this year either, but they do have a shot at making the NCAA Tournament if they can pull off the upset against Belmont. For Belmont, not having to play Mercer at Mercer for the conference championship is a welcome scenario, I’m sure.

-UNC Asheville is at home against VMI for the Big South Championship. VMI isn’t a team that anyone really expected to see in this game. UNCA won both regular season meetings, but by a combined total of just 12 points. It may not be the cakewalk that they’re hoping for, even though VMI finished just 8-10 in league play.

-Two not so exciting games in the OVC semis. Murray State won easily, and Tennessee State didn’t have too much trouble either. As much fun as Murray v Morehead usually is, Tennessee State stands the best chance of beating Murray. Murry is on the first ballot no matter what happens in this game.

-The Missouri Valley is down to the semis. Wichita State did not sleepwalk through their first game, as teams who are safely in the tournament tend to do in the quarterfinals. These games feature Wichita and Creighton, who are safely in, and Illinois State and Evansville, who need the automatic bid.

-Butler is just six wins away from the Final Four. Just sayin’. They play at Valpo tonight, which should be a jacked up environment for the conference semis. Butler is the lowest remaining seed, so they have no hope at playing at home for the championship, but still. They’ve looked good lately, and are just six wins away from the Final Four. Just sayin’

-Patriot Semis are potentially exciting with three of the top four seeds still alive, in what became an exciting conference race down the stretch.

-The Colonial Quarters get underway as well. With teams like VCU, George Mason, Drexel, and Old Dominion, this could be very exciting if all make it to the semis. Another team to keep an eye on is Georgia State. It is Ron Hunter’s first year there, and he’s got a team of scrappers that gets the maximum out of the sum of their parts. Mason may have their hands full.

-The Summit quarters get underway. The setup is kind of unfair to Oral Roberts as they may have to potentially play South Dakota State (who is a good team) on their floor for the automatic bid, but in order to get screwed by the scenario, they have to avoid screwing themselves and losing early in the tournament.

-SoCon quarters are also today. Davidson is potentially a dangerous NCAA Tournament team, but they need to win the automatic bid first.

OTHER HIGHLIGHTED GAMES

-NORTH CAROLINA AT DUKE (ACC). The two teams are deadlocked atop the ACC Standings, and the winner will be the outright first place finisher. If it’s Duke, they will be one step closer to locking up the #1 seed. UNC can still possibly get a #1 if they win this game and win the conference tournament, but even that will cut it close. Still, they’ll probably do no worse than a #2. It’s great to see these two teams play in a high stakes game like this. It’s also great that the rivalry will continue, unlike a certain rivalry known as the Border War.

-COLORADO STATE AT AIR FORCE (Mountain West). Pundits are saying that Colorado State is a lock. They do have some decent wins and a good RPI, but they have been awful away from home. They have just two road wins, and only one was against the RPI top 250. I REALLY think they need this one today.

-LSU AT AUBURN (SEC). LSU is outside the bubble, and it will take a huge run in the conference tournament to get them into the discussion.

-PITT AT UCONN (Big East). UConn is on the bubble and can’t afford losses at home to non-tournament teams.

-HARVARD AT CORNELL (Ivy). Harvard and Penn are deadlocked. A win by one team and a loss by the other will clinch the automatic bid.

-YALE AT PENN (Ivy). Penn is in the same boat as Harvard.

-LONG BEACH AT CS FULLTERON (Big West). If Long Beach wins today and wraps up the perfect season in Big West play, I don’t think it matters what happens next week in the conference tourney. Why penalize a team for losing to a team they’ve already beaten twice??

-GEORGE WASHINGTON AT DAYTON (Atlantic Ten). Dayton is outside the bubble, and will need a run in the conference tournament in order to get any serious consideration.

-SETON HALL AT DEPAUL (Big East). Seton Hall is inside the bubble, but a road win would help.

-SAINT LOUIS AT DUQUESNE (Atlantic Ten). I think SLU is safe, and another road win would solidify them even more.

-TEMPLE AT FORDHAM (Atlantic Ten). Temple is a first ballot team. Fordham will not make the conference tournament.

-NORTHWESTERN AT IOWA (Big Ten). Northwestern doesn’t have a great chance at dancing, but they do have a reasonable chance. They MUST win this game, though.

-BAYLOR AT IOWA STATE (Big Twelve). Baylor is most likely a protected seed, and Iowa State is safely inside the bubble, and perhaps even playing their way up to a first ballot team. They’ve been on a hot streak lately.

-TEXAS AT KANSAS (Big Twelve). Kansas has already clinched an outright first place finish and is now playing for a #1 seed. Texas is on the bubble, and a big win like this would be massive.

-OKLAHOMA STATE AT KANSAS STATE (Big Twelve). I think K State is safe and is simply trying to avoid the blemish of a home loss to a non tournament team.

-GEORGETOWN AT MARQUETTE (Big East). These are two likely protected seeds looking to add another quality win to their profile. Marquette is coming off a loss to Cincinnati, but they’re still in the neighborhood of the #3 line.

-SOUTHERN MISS AT MARSHALL (Conference USA). I think Southern Miss is safely inside the bubble and playing for a seed. Adding another notable road win will certainly help.

-BOSTON COLLEGE AT MIAMI FL (ACC). Miami is on the bubble, and cannot afford bad losses at home.

-ALABAMA AT OLE MISS (SEC). Alabama now looks to be safely inside the bubble and playing for seed. A road win at Ole Miss would help.

-ARKANSAS AT MISSISSIPPI STATE (SEC). Mississippi State has been on a major downward spiral and is in danger of missing the dance altogether. They need a win today and a couple of wins next week in order to feel safe.

-LOUISIANA TECH AT NEVADA (WAC). Nevada will be considered if they lose in the conference tournament, but a loss in a game like this will put them outside the bubble.

-BOISE STATE AT NEW MEXICO (Mountain West). New Mexico is likely a first ballot team that is trying to avoid a loss to a non tournament team.

-UTAH AT OREGON (Pac Twelve). Oregon should get a look considering how well they’ve played down the stretch.

-WEST VIRGINIA AT SOUTH FLORIDA (Big East). Both of these teams are close to the bubble, and if I had to guess I’d say South Florida is right on it, and WVU is inside it, but not by much. A very pivotal game for both teams heading into the Big East Tournament.

-LOUISVILLE AT SYRACUSE (Big East). Louisville appeared to be dangerous until a couple of weeks ago. They’re 2-3 in their last five, but their wins were close games against Pitt and DePaul, which is hardly impressive. It may get ugly tonight.

-SAN DIEGO STATE AT TCU (Mountain West). As hard as this is to believe, TCU can finish 8-6 in the conference. If they win, I would go so far to say that it’s not an upset. They’ve been very tough to beat at home. Enjoy this MWC game between two teams that will not be in the MWC next year.

-VANDERBILT AT TENNESSEE (SEC). Don’t look now, but Tennessee is 7-1 in their last eight games, and has a head of steam going. They will be jacked to end the regular season on a high note and take down rival Vanderbilt. As weak as the bubble appears to be, a run in the SEC Tournament MIGHT get them a look.

-MISSOURI AT TEXAS TECH (Big Twelve). Mizzou is very much in the group of #1 and #2 seeds.

-MEMPHIS AT TULSA (Conference USA). Tulsa had been on a roll, but is coming off a close road loss to UAB. Nevertheless, this game is going to be nationally televised on CBS, and the fans should be jacked. I think Memphis is playing like a first ballot team, and even if they lose this game it won’t hurt them much.

-UAB AT UCF (Conference USA). UCF probably cannot get inside the bubble without winning the conference tournament, but winning out until the finals will likely get them a good look.

-WASHINGTON AT UCLA (Pac Twelve). Washington is on the bubble and looking to add another road win to their profile.

-WYOMING AT UNLV (Mountain West ). UNLV is still a game out of first, but will do no worse than third with a win today. In all likelihood, they’re a first ballot team.

-CINCINNATI AT VILLANOVA (Big East). I think Cincinnati is in, and a win today will help keep them inside the bubble.

-CHARLOTTE AT XAVIER (Atlantic Ten). Xavier is on the bubble and can’t afford a loss at home to a non-tournament team.

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