Bracket Projections: November 30th


-It is important to understand that these brackets are CHECKPOINTS on CURRENT MERIT.  They are not a forecast of what I think things will look like in March, or for that matter how good I actually think teams currently are.

For example, I believe that Iowa State and Villanova are both top ten teams, but they don’t have any really big wins yet, so they’re seeded below team who have won big games, especially if they’ve done it away from home.

On the flip side, I do not foresee Syracuse earning a #1 seed, but they won three big games away from home last week, and no one behind him has three wins of that caliber away from home.

-Bracket s this early really aren’t practical, but neither are April batting averages in baseball and there are people that like to look at those.  I do them this early for two reasons:  1) It’s fun to look at, and 2) This is a season long evaluation process, and doing them this early helps me evaluate.

-It’s also impossible to COMPLETELY eliminate suppositions when ranking the teams.  You need to play at least a football season (twelve games) before you have enough data to simply go off the data.  We’ve played just about half that, as most teams have played six games.



-The week of Thanksgiving is one of the biggest weeks of the season, because most teams play more games than they do in any other single week, and so many of them are away from home in tournaments.  Tournaments have a natural structure of winners playing winners, so it’s a good chance for them to get quality wins away from home, which is especially important for teams who don’t play strong conferences.  So, while the final bracket probably won’t look anything like this, a lot of what happened this past week will definitely come into play.

-It’s also a week where we see teams that were nowhere near the rankings when the season started explode onto the national scene.  Providence and Xavier come to mind this year.  Monmouth also had a huge week and an argument could be made that they belong in the rankings, but I’m not expecting them to end up there.  But, for now, they have wins against USC, Notre Dame, and UCLA all away from home.  There are teams that make the NCAAs who don’t manage three wins away from home that are that good.  Their margin for error is small, but they’ve put themselves in a great position if they can run over their conference.

-Things are bad for Notre Dame right now.  They’re infinitely worse for Wichita State.  At full strength the Shockers are easily a top 25 team, but they’re without so many key players due to injury that they’re going to have trouble finishing in the upper half of the Missouri Valley as it currently stands.  They lost all three games in the Advocare Classic, and didn’t look particularly impressive in any of them.

-UALR and TX Arlington had huge weeks.  Arlington won at Memphis and at Ohio State, and Little Rock picked up notable wins at Tulsa and San Diego State.  Both are currently inside the bubble, but again, it’s early.  By the end of the year, the win at Ohio State won’t look like much if the Buckeyes keep playing the way they did this past week.

-I think Valparaiso and William & Mary are both good enough to land inside the bubble and not need the automatic bid to make the field.  Having said that, both had awful losses this past weekend.  Valpo went down at Ball State, and W&M fell at Howard.  Those losses are particularly damaging because they won’t have a whole lot of opportunities to offset them with quality wins.

-Northeastern was having a bad year until this past weekend, but finally picked up a big win at Miami FL and looked like the kind of team we thought they could be.  That changed the entire complex of their season.  They went from looking like a team who was sweating out weak opponents to being a team with just one loss and a huge win at Miami FL.

-The seed list and notes are located below the bracket.

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  1. MICHIGAN STATE – win vs Kansas and Providence
  2. SYRACUSE – big wins in Battle 4 Atlantis
  3. KENTUCKY – win vs Duke (N)
  4. Duke – only loss was to Kentucky
  5. KANSAS – neutral floor wins against Vandy and UCLA
  6. PROVIDENCE – win vs Arizona (N). no bad losses
  7. West Virginia – unbeaten. Wins against San Diego St (N), Richmond (N)
  8. Virginia – multiple decent neutral floor wins
  9. Xavier – 4 wins away from home, including @ Michigan and vs Dayton
  10. Maryland – decent wins vs Georgetown (H), Rhody (N), Illinois St. (N)
  11. Texas A&M – neutral wins over Gonzaga and Texas
  12. Miami FL – good wins away from home. Home loss to Northeastern
  13. GONZAGA – neutral floor wins vs UConn and Washiongton
  14. CINCINNATI – unbeaten with win v George Washington
  15. Purdue – unbeaten with decent, but not great wins
  16. North Carolina – some adequate wins, but no big ones
  17. Wake Forest – notable wins against Indiana and UCLA. No bad losses
  18. Connecticut – 2 close losses to Syracuse and Gonzaga. Win vs Michigan
  19. Iowa State – unbeaten with decent wins against Colorado and Illinois
  20. Villanova – unbeaten, but no big wins
  21. GEORGE WASHINGTON – home win vs Virginia. No bad losses
  22. Dayton – decent wins against William & Mary, Iowa, and Monmouth.
  23. Richmond – wins @ Wake Forest and vs Cal. No bad losses.
  24. OREGON – 5 wins, all at home, including Valpo and Baylor
  25. Vanderbilt – neutral floor win vs Wake Forest
  26. Arizona – no bad losses, but best win is vs Boise State (N)
  27. Oklahoma – unbeaten. Best win @ Memphis
  28. MONMOUTH – no bad losses. Wins @UCLA and vs Notre Dame
  29. CHATTANOOGA – no bad losses. Wins @ Georgia and @ Illinois
  30. South Carolina – unbeaten. Neutral floor wins against Hofstra and Tulsa
  31. Butler – no big wins
  32. Utah – no big wins
  33. Louisville – unbeaten, but no big wins
  34. NORTHEASTERN – bad loss to Miami OH, good win against Miami FL
  35. Tulsa
  36. COLORADO STATE – win @ Northern Iowa
  37. NORTHERN IOWA – home wins against North Carolina
  38. LITTLE ROCK – unbeaten. Wins @ San Diego State and Tulsa
  39. Texas Arlington – wins @ Memphis and @ Ohio State
  40. Georgetown – 3 losses by a total of 6pts. Win vs Wisconsin
  41. VALPARAISO – bad loss at Ball St. Decent win @ Oregon St.
  42. UTEP – unbeaten. Neutral wins against Colorado St. and SO Ill
  43. Vcu – no good wins, but no bad losses
  44. Unlv – win vs Indiana
  45. Michigan
  46. San Diego State
  47. RADFORD – win @ Georgetown
  48. Louisiana Tech – unbeaten. Wins against UTA and @ Ohio St.
  49. William & Mary – good win at NC St, bad loss at Howard
  50. NC State – beat LSU
  51. Indiana – No good wins. Losses to Wake Forest and UNLV
  52. WESTERN ILLINOIS – win @ Wisconsin, loss @ Creighton
  53. Wisconsin
  54. Colorado – no bad losses. Win @ Auburn
  55. California – no bad losses, but no good wins
  56. Washington – no bad losses. Neutral floor win vs Texas
  57. Florida – no bad losses, but no good wins
  58. Saint Joseph’s – 4-1 with a win vs Old Dominion
  59. Florida State
  60. Alabama
  61. Notre Dame
  62. Hofstra
  63. Iowa
  64. Evansville
  65. Usc – no bad losses. Home wins against Monmouth and New Mexico
  66. Byu
  67. Seton Hall
  69. Creighton
  70. SACRAMENTO STATE – win @ Arizona St.
  71. Rhode Island
  72. Southern Illinois
  73. Saint Louis
  75. Northwestern
  77. Pittsburgh
  78. Marquette
  79. Baylor – no big wins
  80. Kansas State
  81. Oklahoma State
  82. Unc Wilmington
  83. TOLEDO – 3 div1 wins away from home
  84. Saint Mary’s – unbeaten. Best win vs Stanford (H)
  85. Davidson
  86. Washington State
  87. Houston
  88. Clemson
  89. HOWARD – win vs William & Mary (H)
  90. YALE
  91. BUCKNELL – 2 road wins
  92. ALABAMA A&M – 2 road wins, including @ Tulane
  94. ALBANY
  95. TAMUCC
  96. LIU BROOKLYN – only NEC team with winning record
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2 Responses to Bracket Projections: November 30th

  1. Pingback: News, Notes, and Highlighted Games: Monday, Nov 30th | Hoops HD

  2. David Griggs says:

    I’m starting to think that I shouldn’t have given NC State any credit at all for their win over LSU.

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