Conference Preview: Ohio Valley

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OHIO VALLEY

With two games to go in the regular season last year, the Austin Peay Governors sat at 5-9 in OVC play and did not look like they would even qualify for the 8 team Ohio Valley Conference Tournament.  They won those last two games, however, and snuck into the league’s 8th and final spot.  With a double-bye system in the conference tournament, the Governors started with a 5 vs 8 game against a Tennessee Tech team that would end up in the Vegas 16 tournament.  They won by 20.  Next, the Governors got 4 seed Tennessee State, a team that had 20 wins and would end up in the CIT.  When they pulled off the 2 point upset, we started paying attention.  Of course, up next was the #1 seed in the conference, Belmont, who ended up in the NIT.  It was incredible, and the Governors won 97-96 in overtime to advance to the conference tournament finals and a matchup with #2 seed Tennessee-Martin.  Austin Peay then won their 6th straight game, and fourth in four days to capture the title and automatic bid, sending UT-Martin to the CIT.  The magic ended there as they wound up a 16 seed and lost by 26 to Kansas in the Round of 64.  But it was an absolutely amazing run through the conference tournament, and a run in which they faced the toughest possible road seed-wise.  In fact, the only OVC team that played in the postseason that the Governors did not defeat during their run was Morehead State, who played in the CBI, advancing to the Best-of-Three finals and losing in Game 3 overtime to Nevada.

This year, Austin Peay is one of four teams that could be in the mix to win the conference.  The Governors, along with a Murray State team that we expect to bounce back after a disappointing season, will be the top two contenders in the conference’s West Division.  In the East, Belmont is favored once again and should get their toughest challenge from Tennessee State.  If a dark horse candidate has to be picked, keep an eye on Southeast Missouri State in the West and Jacksonville State, under new head coach Ray Harper, in the East.  In the end, however, we expect Belmont to be the team representing the OVC in this year’s Big Dance.

Predicted Order of Finish

East Division

1. Belmont – Evan Bradds is back for his senior season after capturing last year’s OVC Player of the Year award.  He is complemented by guard Austin Luke who was among the nation’s best assist men, averaging 6.2 per game.  The Bruins have enough pieces to win the conference.

2. Tennessee State – Tahjere McCall is one of the best guards in the conference, but his team will need to find a way to make up for the loss of Keron DeShields’ 16.5 points per game.

3. Eastern Kentucky – The Colonels bring back Nick Mayo, last year’s OVC Freshman of the Year, but do not bring back their top two scorers. Given that they were sub-.500 last year, even hitting that mark may be tough this one.

4. Morehead State – Three starters are gone from last year’s CBI finalist.  The Eagles will need Xavier Moon to lead the way, but there are probably not enough pieces here to challenge this season.

5. Jacksonville State – Ray Harper (formerly of Western Kentucky) takes over as head coach and, given his track record, should have the Gamecocks in contention in a few years.  He does have three starters returning this season, but don’t expect this season much from a team that lost 23 times last year.

6. Tennessee Tech – With three of the top four players gone and a serous lack of size and depth down low, this could be a very long season.

West Division

1. Murray State – Bryce Jones and Damarcus Croaker in the backcourt, plus having big man Bryan Sanchious healthy, should make the Racers better than last year’s disappointing 17-14 record.

2. Austin Peay – The Governors made an incredible run in last year’s conference tournament, and should be able to carry over some of that momentum this season.  Two of their top three scorers are gone, but returnee Josh Robinson can light up the scoreboard.

3. Southeast Missouri State – The good news is that four starters, including three double-digit scorers return.  The bad news is that the other 8 players on the roster are all newcomers.  If they can all develop and gel together, there is a chance that the Redhawks could surprise.

4. Eastern Illinois – 5-7 Cornell Johnston and backcourt mate Demetrius McReynolds are returning double-digit scorers, but the Panthers lack size, depth and experience down low.

5. SIU Edwardsville – The Cougars do return their top two scorers, but the team lost 22 games last year and was among the worst in the nation in shooting percentage.  The good news is that it probably cannot get much worse.

6. Tennessee-Martin – After back-to-back 20+ win seasons, the Skyhawks lost four starters and head coach Heath Schroyer left for an assistant job at North Carolina State.  This looks like it will be a long first year for new head coach Anthony Stewart.

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