Below is my projected bracket through games of January 8, 2017, together with my notes on the field. Below the bracket, other members of our HoopsHD panel have taken the time to rip it apart and tell me how crazy I am. This bracket is built as if the season ended today and makes no attempts to project future game results.
NOTES
– I have an ACC team on the 1 line. It is not Duke. It is not North Carolina. It isn’t even Virginia or Louisville. Yes, that is how good I think Florida State’s profile is this year. They are the best team in the best conference at this point, and as a result, they deserve a 1 seed. I never thought in a million years I would ever say that about a Leonard Hamilton team. But I just did.
– West Virginia is on my 2 line and may be underrated. This team is scary good and I would not be shocked at all to see them in the Final Four.
– There are 6 ACC teams on the top four lines, which would be a record. I expect one or two to fall off the pace a bit as they beat each other up.
– I hereby officially apologize for every criticism I have ever had of “little” Richard Pitino. Minnesota is good this year, and looking more like a protected seed and Big Ten title contender than a bubble team.
– USC lost for the second time all year late last night, and promptly fell down to the 7 line. They simply do not have the quality wins to justify anything higher than that in my opinion.
– Northwestern is in. And solidly. This could be the year!!!
– Michigan State is clinging to a 9 seed. This could be the year for their streak to end as well. They have not missed the field since 1997.
– Wichita State, Middle Tennessee and UNC-Wilmington all have at-large caliber profiles at the moment and belong in above the First Four teams.
– There are 11 ACC teams in this field. There are 9 Big Ten teams in as well. Beyond those, the Big 12 got 6, the Big East got 5, the Pac-12 and SEC had 4 each, and the American, A-10 and WCC had 2 each. Every other conference has a single bid.
– My last six teams in, in order, were Illinois, Nebraska, Miami, Texas Tech, NC State and Oklahoma State.
– Yes, I know NC State lost by 51 points on Sunday. Yes, I do still have them in my field. Why? Well who the hell else was there to put in there? My top four teams out were TCU, Michigan, Rhode Island and Memphis. All four of those make my stomach turn in disgust. I also gave consideration to such garbage as Marquette, California, Utah, Houston, Providence, Wake Forest and Kansas State. We really need to drop back down to 64 teams.
– As a final note, I hope Oregon fans are not too upset about having to play Oakland in Sacramento . . . 😉
COMMENTS FROM JOHN
– It does sound crazy at first glance for Florida State to be high on the top line, but they’ve cashed in on almost all of the opportunities in front of them so far. UCLA and Kentucky won’t have the same opportunities to get this high in their own conferences, short of the Noles or another 1-seed losing.
– I also suspect some of the same rationale applies to Oregon just missing the top 4 seed lines for the time being. They started slow with Dillon Brooks not even playing against Baylor, and they paid for his absence earlier in the year. He would do well to not have similar flagrant-2 fouls like the one he had against Washington State on Saturday. If he does it again, he’ll be facing a one-game suspension similar to He Who Must Not Be Named.
– Xavier is another 5 seed based on what they’ve accomplished so far, but probably more eye test has them this high for now. Their gauntlet is now before them – at Villanova, at Butler, and at home against Creighton.
– USC may be a 7 right now, but I get a feeling they’re headed in the wrong direction. Losing to Cal at home isn’t a cardinal sin, but a nice road win would really help to offset that. A more talented USC team really didn’t have a signature road win last season that sticks out for me. I actually like all the 8-seed teams more than the Trojans right now – like South Carolina last year, they no longer have the luxury of an unbeaten record overall or in conference to fall back on.
– I don’t have a problem with teams like UNC-Wilmington and Middle Tennessee above the First Four cut-line for now, although I have a feeling other bubble teams will jump over them later on this season with quality wins. (Wichita has already proven they can collect rent from the rest of dues-paying Missouri Valley members.) My only other UTR quibble would be the MAC representative; I still give Ohio a slight edge thanks to their win at Georgia Tech earlier this year. I know the Jackets aren’t great, but it’s still a better win than anything Akron has so far.
NOTES FROM DAVID
-I hate saying this, but Chad actually did a pretty good job.
-I personally would not have Florida State on the #1 line, but I don’t think it’s all that crazy to have them up there. I could make a case for them if I had to. They have just one loss, and they have a very good win at Virginia. A case could easily be made.
-The one team that I seem to be bigger on than everyone else at Hoops HD is UCLA. Now, you will have had to have followed us for several years to see the ultimate irony in that because I normally like UCLA less than everyone else, but I really like them this year. The win at Kentucky is the single greatest win that anyone one has on their profile. Their one loss was at the buzzer on the road against a very good Oregon team. They have beaten everyone else. I realize that the number of wins against teams in the field is lacking, so I can’t say that it’s too far off base to not have them on the #1 line, but they are still currently on my #1 line and I do think they are good enough to ultimately end up there.
-Kind of an Under the Radar comment, but I am now convinced that Oakland, and not Valpo, is not only the king of the Horizon League, but if they run the table they’ll be squarely on the bubble. They just won at Valpo rather easily, and that is the toughest remaining game on their schedule, so it’s not too far fetched to think that they can win out. If they do, then they will be right there in the discussion.
-I do not understand NC State. Why does everyone think NC State is good? It’s not that they lost by a million at UNC on a given day. It’s that they aren’t really capable of playing any better than that, and at no point have they given any indication that they’re a good team. They beat Virginia Tech at home, and they won a bunch of home buy games. That is their entire profile. I don’t think UCF should be in the field at this point, but at least they’ve, on occasion, looked like an NCAA Tournament team. NC State really hasn’t. Davidson doesn’t belong in the field either, but I believe them to be a better team than NC State.