NEWS AND NOTES
-For Chad Sherwood’s UTR Game of the Day featuring the Bayou Classic – CLICK HERE
-UNC Wilmington, who is a team whose tournament chances we’ve liked all season long, lost their second straight game on Thursday night. It came at home against Charleston in an exciting game that seesawed back and forth. If UNCW can win out until the CAA Championship game their chances of getting in are probably still around fifty percent, but as good as they are and as good as they’ve been the quality wins just aren’t on their profile and they’ll need the automatic bid in order to feel safe.
-Other than that, it was a chalky Thursday and Friday. California won an overtime thriller against Utah in an exciting game between two bubble teams. Gonzaga, Arizona, Oregon, and Saint Mary’s all won as well, although Oregon and Saint Mary’s had to sweat a lot more than we were expecting.
-Notre Dame’s game at North Carolina has been rescheduled for tomorrow afternoon due to a water main break in Chapel Hill.
BUBBLICIOUS SATURDAY
-MIAMI FL AT NC STATE (ACC). This is another bubblicious game. When two teams who are trying to land on the right side of the bubble are facing each other, it’s always a big game because it’s a good win for the resume, but it also gives the winner a leg up on a specific team they’re fighting against to make the field.
-GEORGIA TECH AT WAKE FOREST (ACC). Another bubblcious game!! Same story, but two different teams. Both are trying to land on the right side of the bubble, and both could really use this win.
-ILLINOIS STATE AT WICHITA STATE (Missouri Valley). Both teams are right on the bubble, and with limited opportunities at notable wins you kind of get the feeling that there is only room for one of them, and that the other will end up needing the automatic bid. I think the winner of this game has a great chance of making the field if they win out. In fact we’ve been putting Illinois State inside our bubble for the last couple of weeks and this road win would look great on their profile. This has also turned in to one of the more heated games in this conference, so the fact that it’s both heated and of high stakes should make it fun.
-SETON HALL AT GEORGETOWN (Big East). This is a bubblicious game between a Georgetown team that’s been playing really well and trending up, and a Seton Hall team that has completely lost their grip and needs to string together some wins just to shore themselves up.
OTHER HIGHLIGHTED GAMES
-PURDUE AT MARYLAND (Big Ten). We currently have both teams safely in the top half of the bracket, and in the case of Maryland they’re on the fringe of getting a protected seed, but despite their bloated record they don’t have a lot in the way of protected seed caliber wins yet.
-VIRGINIA AT SYRACUSE (ACC). Some feel that Syracuse is starting to inch toward the bubble. A win in a game like this would be a huge step forward. I still like Virginia to win the ACC and think they’ll get this win on the road today.
-AKRON AT OHIO U (MAC). If Akron wins out they should end up inside the bubble. They’re running away from the MAC, and in the past that’s been very hard to do.
-DUQUESNE AT DAYTON (Atlantic Ten). Dayton is a team that’s inside the bubble, but they’re not far enough inside to where they can’t get knocked out if they lose a couple of games like this.
-TEXAS AT TCU (Big Twelve). TCU is squarely on the bubble and must take care of business in games when they are at home and playing non-tournament teams.
-PITTSBURGH AT DUKE (ACC). Pitt has just one conference win, and although they have some good wins at the top of their profile I still think they’re a mile from the tournament. Duke is suddenly playing a lot better and will end up as a protected seed if they keep it up.
-VALPARAISO AT GREEN BAY (Horizon League). i don’t think Valpo can make the NCAAs without an automatic bid, but if they win out through the regular season, which they are definitely good enough to do, the committee will at least look at them.
-GEORGIA AT SOUTH CAROLINA (SEC). Georgia may have an outside shot at reaching the bubble, but They’ll need a strong finish with wins like this in order to do it. South Carolina seems like they’re on pace to end up in the top half of the bracket.
-IOWA STATE AT KANSAS (Big Twelve). Kansas is almost unbeatable at home, and while Iowa State is a likely tournament team, they seem to be overmatched today.
-MARQUETTE AT DEPAUL (Big East). Marquette has lost two straight, which is surprising after they won two straight against protected seeds, which was…well…also surprising. This is their most winnable remaining road game so they don’t want to waste this opportunity.
-LOUISVILLE AT BOSTON COLLEGE (ACC). I really like how this Louisville team is playing and I expect that their resume will continue to improve.
-KANSAS STATE AT BAYLOR (Big Twelve). Baylor is coming off a very impressive performance against Kansas despite the loss. They’re still in the hunt for a #1 seed, and are facing a K State team that’s squarely on the bubble. K State has come close to winning some big games, so while they appear to be overmatched I wouldn’t entirely count them out.
-XAVIER AT CREIGHTON (Big East). Both teams have lost key players for the season, and both are trying to show that they can still win big games without those players. Creighton has arguably done so, most recently knocking off Butler on the road. A win for Xavier will go a long way in assuring that they end up in the top half of the bracket, but that’s going to be much easier said than done.
-TENNESSEE AT MISSISSIPPI STATE (SEC). I really like how this Tennessee team is playing. I think they’re currently inside the bubble and that their resume will continue to improve between now and the end of the year. This is a winnable road game for the Vols.
-MINNESOTA AT ILLINOIS (Big Ten). The Gophers have really hit the skids, and could use a road win like this to help get themselves turned back around. Illinois’s chances of playing their way back onto the bubble are looking smaller and smaller.
-ARIZONA AT OREGON (Pac Twelve). I still really like this Oregon team, but not quite as much as I liked them last week after they beat Utah. The reason is that they have since lost to Colorado, and didn’t exactly bury a rather weak Arizona State team the other night. Some of us feel that Arizona can end up on the #1 line. I think that in order for that to happen they need to win this game. If they don’t, they’re still in great shape, but I don’t see them getting all the way up to a #1 seed without this win.
-CONNECTICUT AT CINCINNATI (American). Cincinnati escaped at Tulsa the other night, but at the end of the day a win is a win. They are cruising toward the top half of the bracket, and shouldn’t have too much trouble at home today against a UConn team that has had nothing go right for them.
-VCU AT SAINT BONAVENTURE (Atlantic Ten). We have VCU inside the bubble, but also feel they need a strong finish in order to feel safe. This isn’t the easiest game in the world to win, but it’s also the kind of game that a tournament team should be able to win.
-WYOMING AT AIR FORCE (Mountain West, Front Range). Okay, this game has no meaning whatsoever other than being a Front Range game, and we love the Front Range!!
-UTAH AT STANFORD (Pac Twelve). Utah just suffered a loss to California in an overtime thriller that they really needed to win. They’re on the wrong side of the bubble right now and need to string together some wins if they want to make the field. Picking this one up on the road is kind of a must.
-OKLAHOMA STATE AT WEST VIRGINIA (Big Twelve). Oklahoma State is on the fringe of the bubble, and although a loss really won’t hurt them, a win would help the immensely. West Virginia appears to be cruising toward a protected seed so long as they hold serve in games like this.
-MEMPHIS AT UCF (American). Memphis’s at-large hopes have been mostly extinguished, but I suppose if they win out and pick up a notable win in the conference tournament they’ll get a look.
-ARKANSAS AT MISSOURI (SEC). Arkansas can add to their total number of road wins. In fact, if they fail to do that, they should probably be out of our next bracket projection.
-OHIO STATE AT MICHIGAN (Big Ten). It’s a rivalry game, but what’s more important is that it involves a Michigan team that is right on the bubble and needs a strong finish to the season in order to feel safe.
-SAINT MARY’S AT SAN DIEGO (West Coast). Like all conference games that aren’t against Gonzaga, this is a game that SMC should win without too much trouble.
-OKLAHOMA AT TEXAS TECH (Big Twelve). Texas Tech has enough big wins to keep them within reach of the bubble, but they still have a lot of work to do and can’t afford to lose games like this.
-SMU AT TULSA (American). Tulsa isn’t the easiest team to beat at home, but they’re a team that solid NCAA Tournament teams like SMU should be expected to beat at home.
-DELAWARE AT UNC WILMINGTON (Colonial). UNCW has lost two straight, which likely kills their chances to get an at-large, but the committee should at least consider them, and may still take them, if they win out and lose to Charleston in the finals.
-USC AT WASHINGTON STATE (Pac Twelve). USC has a good resume, but they appear to have gotten better in the last week or two, and could really come thundering down the stretch. I’ll be surprised if they don’t add another road win to their resume today.
-MIDDLE TENNESSEE AT UTEP (Conference USA). Same story and a different day with Middle Tennessee. If they win out they should be safely in the field.
-SAINT JOHN’S AT VILLANOVA (Big East). Saint John’s is an amazing 5-6 in Big East play after showing all the signs of not being able to beat anyone other than DePaul prior to league play starting. They’re swinging way over their heads today against a Nova team that seems to be heading for the #1 line, but the Johnnies have been a bit of a surprise.
-KENTUCKY AT FLORIDA (SEC). Kentucky has lost two straight, which may have killed their chances at a #1 seed, but this is still a big game for them. Whenever you can pick up a road win against a ranked team it’s a big game.
-SANTA CLARA AT GONZAGA (West Coast). BYU came back and made it exciting, but you still never felt that the Zags were in any danger of losing at any point in that game. Tonight will most likely end up looking very much like a buy game.
-UCLA AT WASHINGTON (Pac Twelve). UCLA is looking to pick up their second straight road win, which is a nice way to rebound after two straight losses.