For Jon Teitel’s latest interview with Bill Thomas about Curtis Perry – CLICK HERE
For Today’s Under the Radar Game of the Day between Lehigh and Bucknell, as well as the rest of today’s News and Notes – CLICK HERE
Let me explain to everyone what they are looking at. This is a CHECKPOINT of what I WANT based on what teams have done SO FAR, not a prediction of what I think the actual committee will do on Selection Sunday. Jon Teitel is our Selection Committee Guessing Expert. He is one of the best at it in the world, and he’s certainly way better at it than I am. If you want to look at his latest picks, you can CLICK HERE
-Based on what the actual committee did on Saturday, I am certain that I have made selections and seedings that are nowhere near what they are doing. I’ll explain much of that in the notes below the bracket. Other members of the staff are free to comment as well, even though they are COMPLETELY WRONG about anything they disagree with!!
OTHERS CONSIDERED: Georgetown, Indiana, Florida, UCF, Arkansas, Davidson, South Florida, Oklahoma, San Francisco, Toledo
-First off, I have taken an extreme executive privilege with this bracket. I openly admit that I have perhaps abused my executive privilege, and will face serious brushback from the comments of the other staff members. The rules are that these are MY picks, and that I can do what I want! I have opted to select Bellarmine from Division 2 as the last team in. I am rather certain that the actual committee will not do this, but I’m not trying to guess the actual committee. The reason is because that the bubble sucks so badly, that I just don’t like the idea of putting any of the div1 teams in the field. The First Four games are down on the 13 line, and although it has been that low before, even in those years the teams looked better than the ones we have this year. It was so bad that I had to go back and double check it to make sure I didn’t leave anyone out. I’m still not entirely convinced that I didn’t. If there is an oversight and I left out someone obvious, I’m sure I’ll here about it.
-Everyone is probably falling out of their chairs when they see where I have Kansas State. I know the committee didn’t like them either, and they are not without their warts. But, they are the first place team in the Big 12, and they have a lot of good wins away from home. I don’t see why they shouldn’t be a protected seed.
-New Mexico State and Old Dominion are in as conference champions, but both are actually inside my bubble right now. Wofford, Lipscomb, and Belmont are teams that are also safely inside the bubble. They may not have wins against top 50 teams, but beating a top 50 team at home isn’t necessarily that hard to do if that team only has one or two road wins on the season. The games that the above mentioned teams have won are not easy games to win.
-Kansas has won just one true road game. I cannot give a protected seed to a team that’s just one won true road game, and that’s playing the way they are. If they win tonight then I’ll feel a little better about them.
-Auburn has won just one true road game. I would almost never have a team like that as high as the #10 line, but…who do I put ahead of them.
COMMENTS FROM STAFF
FROM JOHN:
– I honestly can’t complain too much about the top 5 seed lines here – but I think a team like Florida State is on the verge of breaking through here after surviving a tough test at home against Louisville over the weekend. Also keep an eye on LSU – they’ve clearly established themselves as the third best SEC team and can vault even further if they’re somehow able to win at Kentucky later this week. Easier said than done.
– Saint John’s is one of the more perplexing teams around. They are talented enough to the point where they can sweep Marquette, but it’s also a team that has trouble staying healthy. They have home losses to DePaul, Georgetown and Providence – in recent years this would be potentially disastrous for the Johnnies. Their win against VCU is looking better, though.
– I’m not ready to drop a team like Central Florida into the NIT just yet, but they’re running out of opportunities to make their case. They’ve got a stave off a challenge from in-state foe South Florida who is suddenly looking to make their case as a longshot from the American.
– This is more of a UTRish nitpick, but why is Rider still assumed to be the MAAC autobid? They’ve now lost 4 in a row and are not only behind Monmouth who is suddenly leading the conference, they’re now behind Siena, Canisius and Quinnipiac as well. We’ve said this off the air, but how ironic would it be to see Monmouth finally break through into the NCAA Tournament and end up going to Dayton (not as one of the last four at-larges, but as one of the last four NCAA teams period).
– We really, really need chaos to ensue on Championship Week. Or we just need teams like Georgetown, Florida, Butler, etc. to win enough games to snatch away at-large bids this season.
FROM CHAD:
– I know I am out on my own here, but quite frankly I still like Michigan’s profile enough to have them on the 1 line. I know the Virginia’s only losses have been to #1 overall Duke, but someone has to drop down a line and I am just about ready to accept the Zags as a 1 seed. So, for now, I would have Virginia #5 overall. I would have Michigan #3 overall, by the way, still better than Gonzaga.
– Like John, the rest of the top 5 lines do not offend me, even K State on the 3 line. I would have had them as a 4 myself, but I see and understand the argument. I do think there is an argument for Iowa as a top 5 seed, and even a protected seed right now, but David has them on the 6 line.
– I would have made an argument a week ago that TCU may not even belong in the field, After picking up a ROAD WIN against a protected seed caliber Iowa State team this weekend, their resume suddenly has exactly what it was missing all season. I like the Horned Frogs in a 7/10 game, but would have them wearing white as the 7 seed. They now have a huge road win, a high volume of wins and nothing bad on the profile.
– I do not understand David’s obsession with Belmont being this high. I like thus Bruins team a ton, but at the end of the day they are a mid-major with three sub-130 losses, one of which came at home, and no wins against anyone that is solidly in the field. If they win out until the OVC title game and lose there, an argument cold be made that they belong in the First Four in Dayton, but that’s their best argument.
– I also am a little shocked to do this, but I think David, who has been dogging Auburn all season, has OVERRANKED them. The Tigers have, quite frankly, beaten no one and only have one true road win, which came at lowly Texas A&M. The only thing in their favor is the predictive metrics, like KenPom and BPI and the NET. That doesn’t pass the test for me. Send this team to Dayton too!
– I actually like the Clemson pick. After the heartbreaker against NC State, the Tigers have won four straight and belong in the field as of today.
– Utah State is a very BLAH pick to me, but the Board to choose from is such garbage I understand it. I think David completely overlooked a team that I would have either in or right on the bubble line right now — the suddenly red hot (4 straight wins) Furman Paladins. I am ready to join the 3-bid SoCon bandwagon and David doesn’t even know that the team exists!
– Finally, I have no idea what David was smoking when he put Bellarmine in the field. Everyone knows that both Northwest Missouri State and St. Edward’s (Texas) are better D2 teams right now and either one should be in over the Knights.