HoopsHD is ready for the greatest month of the year, and we start it off with a 2-part preview of every single conference tourney in the nation. Jon Teitel’s predictions for the 13 tourneys kicking off this week is below, and check back next week for his predictions of the remaining 18 tourneys and the Ivy regular season champ.
1. America East tourney predicted champ: Albany
Last year’s tourney champ: Albany (#1-seed)
The Great Danes have won this tourney each of the past 3 years. While the Seawolves have come oh-so-close in losing 4 of the past 5 title games by a combined 20 PTS but have never won it. Stony Brook has lost only 1 game since mid-December…at Albany on 2/17. They beat Albany by 6 PTS at home on 1/22 and will have the home-court advantage since the higher-seeded school hosts each tourney game, but the reason the Danes are Great is that they have won each of the past 3 title games in 3 different gyms (Patrick Gym in Burlington, Pritchard Gymnasium in Stony Brook, and SEFCU Arena in Albany). Their top-3 scorers are all senior guards (including 2-time defending America East tourney MVP Peter Hooley) and they are among the best in the nation at making FTs and defending threes.
2. Atlantic Sun tourney predicted champ: North Florida
Last year’s tourney champ: North Florida (#1-seed)
This tourney has featured 5 different winners during the past 6 years, but only 2 of the 5 remain in the conference (Florida Gulf Coast and North Florida). Stetson will participate but cannot win due to APR violations. Only 4 teams have overall winning records, and the Ospreys are the only team to beat each of the other 3 at home this season, which will come in handy if they are the regular season champ because they would get to host each of their tourney games. North Florida’s offense is 1 of the top-5 in the country thanks to each of their top-6 scorers being juniors or seniors. Despite having 2 separate players averaging 2+ BPG their defense is among the bottom 10% in the country, and they need to hit the boards a little harder since their opponents have a season rebound advantage of well over 100.
3. Big South tourney predicted champ: High Point
Last year’s tourney champ: Coastal Carolina (#3-seed)
If the Chanticleers were to host the tourney for the 4th straight year in Conway then I would pick them to win their 3rd straight title, but after announcing last August that they will join the Sun Belt this July the tourney changed hosts to Campbell. The top of this league is bunched up with several teams only separated by a game or 2, but since the tourney is back in North Carolina for only the 2nd time since 2008 I will go with a home-state team like the Panthers. They will get a 1st round bye if they can maintain their status as a top-5 seed, and after losing 5 of 7 from mid-January through mid-February they seemed to have turned the corner with 4 straight wins (including 3 on the road). High Point has a senior star in John Brown, and their 4 other leading scorers are each juniors or seniors. They are top-30 in the nation in 3P%, FT%, STL, and fewest TO, so even if they have a cold shooting night or do not get a lot of steals there are plenty of other areas in which they can compensate.
4. CAA tourney predicted champ: UNC Wilmington
Last year’s tourney champ: Northeastern (#3-seed)
The sentimental pick is William & Mary because they are 1 of only 5 schools to have never made the NCAA tourney, but history is not on the Tribe’s side. This tourney has featured a different winner in each of the past 5 years and the Seahawks are poised to make it 6-for-6. After losing back-to-back games to begin January they have won 12 of 13 to get back in the hunt. Their offense is a little guard-heavy with each of their top-5 scorers standing 6’5” or shorter, but their next 8 leading scorers are each 6’6” or taller. Their key to success is ball-control: they have dominated their opponents this year in SPG/TO.
5. Horizon tourney predicted champ: Valparaiso
Last year’s tourney champ: Valparaiso (#1-seed)
If there is anyone who knows what it takes to win games in March it is Valpo head coach Bryce Drew, the author of 1 of the most famous buzzer-beaters in history back in the 1998 NCAA tourney. The Crusaders have won 2 of the past 3 tourneys, will get a double-bye if they can hold onto a top-2 seed, and are led by defending tourney MVP Alec Peters. I am tempted to pick Wright ST because they swept Valpo during the regular season, but the Raiders will probably have to face an Oakland team in the semis who beat them by an average of 21 PTS this year. Even if Kay Felder leads Oakland to the title game, his own team was swept by the Crusaders this year. Valpo is 1 of the best defensive teams in the nation, and with 7 players averaging 3+ RPG they allow very few 2nd-chance opportunities.
6. MAAC tourney predicted champ: Iona
Last year’s tourney champ: Manhattan (#3-seed)
Iona and Manhattan have met in each of the past 3 tourney title games but there is a good chance that Monmouth will not have to face either of them until the title game. Everyone in America is probably picking the Hawks, but the Gaels scored an average of 96.5 PPG during their season split with Monmouth. Iona’s only loss since late-January was by 3 PTS to Siena on 2/13 and their balanced scoring (4 guys scoring 12+ PPG) means that even if you can neutralize 1 guy the rest of the team can beat you. SR G AJ English missed a few games in December (including 3 consecutive losses away from home), but has been healthy during conference play and scored 76 PTS in 2 games against Monmouth.
7. MVC tourney predicted champ: Wichita State
Last year’s tourney champ: Northern Iowa (#2-seed)
Wichita State’s string of 3 straight 30-win seasons might have come to an end but the senior leadership of Ron Baker and Fred VanVleet continues to make them the class of the conference. Some people might have pushed the panic button in November after the Shockers finished the month with a 2-4 record, but you can chalk that up to a challenging non-conference schedule and an injury to VanVleet that limited him to only 33 minutes the entire month. Since the start of December they have lost 3 games by a combined 12 PTS and swept each of their 2 conference opponents with 20+ wins (Evansville and Southern Illinois). Their defense is 1 of the best in the nation and their turnover margin advantage is simply amazing.
8. NEC predicted champ: Wagner
Last year’s tourney champ: Robert Morris (#2-seed)
3 schools have combined to win each of the past 8 conference tourneys (Long Island, Mount St. Mary’s, and Robert Morris), but the Mountaineers might be the only 1 of the 3 to play a home game in this year’s tourney. The Seahawks swept Mount St. Mary’s within an 8-day span this year and have fared pretty well at home all season long. Unlike many mid-major teams they do not rely on senior leadership due to 3 of their top-4 scorers being sophomores or juniors (all of whom are guards). Their calling card is defense so if all goes well then no sleep til…Staten Island!
9. OVC predicted champ: Belmont
Last year’s tourney champ: Belmont (#3-seed)
Murray ST owned this conference until the Bruins became a member in 2012, and all Belmont has done since then is win 4 straight East Division titles and a pair of tourney titles in Nashville. They will face some stiff competition this month from every other school in Tennessee, but since their only in-state conference loss was at Tennessee Tech on 1/30 they have to be considered the favorite. Their long-range offense is unstoppable as they make more than 10 threes/game, but their 400+ TO this year could come back to bite them in the butt.
10. Patriot predicted champ: Lehigh
Last year’s tourney champ: Lafayette (#4-seed)
This conference is a hot mess with nobody winning 20 regular season games, and 4 different tourney champs over the past 4 years, so good luck picking a winner. Bucknell won 9 of its 1st 10 conference games before a trio of double-digit losses during the 1st 2 weeks of February. On the other end of the momentum spectrum, Lehigh entered February with an overall record of 6-14 but somehow flipped the switch and has won 8 straight including a 15-PT win at Bucknell. Each of the Mountain Hawks top-5 scorers are averaging double-digits but nobody else is even scoring 4 PPG, so if they have a game that involves foul trouble or OT then they might not have anything left in the tank or on the bench. They are also ridiculous from behind the arc: each of their 9 players who have made a 3-PT shot are shooting at least 32 3P%!
11. Southern predicted champ: Chattanooga
Last year’s tourney champ: Wofford (#1-seed)
Unlike a lot of conferences that have a different champ every March, the SoCon has had only 4 different winners since 2002 (Chattanooga, Davidson, East Tennessee ST, and Wofford). The Terriers have won 4 of the past 6 tourneys but are only hovering around .500 this year. Chattanooga was 22-3 in early February and looked capable of getting an automatic bid thanks to non-conference wins over Georgia/Illinois/Dayton, but after dropping 2 of 4 in mid-February it appears they will need a tourney title to keep playing deep into March. The Mocs’ combination of depth and experience is incredible: each of their top-9 scorers are juniors or seniors scoring between 6 and 13 PPG.
12. Summit predicted champ: South Dakota State
Last year’s tourney champ: North Dakota State (#2-seed)
Ever since the tourney moved from Tulsa to Sioux Falls in 2009 there have only been 3 different champs: North Dakota State, Oakland, and South Dakota State. IPFW is on pace for the greatest season in school history and beat the Jackrabbits by 12 PTS on 2/18…but it is just too hard to pick against the home-state team with a 400-win coach in Scott Nagy. South Dakota State has 3 senior guards scoring 10+ PPG, but the X-factor might be PF Mike Daum. The 6’9” 245 pound freshman is 14 PPG/6 RPG this year while only playing 20 minutes/game, so assuming he has a little energy left I cannot wait to see what kind of numbers he puts up if the team needs him to play 35+ MPG.
13. WCC predicted champ: St. Mary’s
Last year’s tourney champ: Gonzaga (#1-seed)
Let me take a moment to review Coach Mark Few’s resume in relation to his conference dominance since taking over the head job in Spokane in 1999: 16 NCAA tourney appearances, 14 regular season titles, 12 tourney titles (including each of the last 3 title games by double-digits), and 11-time COY. Each of the Bulldogs’ 7 losses this year have been by single-digits, but the 2 that cause the most concern are the season sweep at the hands of the Gaels. The fact that a perfectly mediocre Pepperdine team swept St. Mary’s this year is a big red flag, but Gonzaga has a flag of its own in the form of Przemek Karnowski’s season-ending injury. St. Mary’s does not have a single senior on its roster so perhaps they are a year away, but any team that leads the nation in both FG% and opponents’ FTM has to be taken seriously.
Hoops HD Bracket Projections (David Griggs): February 29th
LINKS
-The bracket below makes no attempts to guess the actual committee. It is simply what David thinks the field should look like if the season ended today. To see Jon Teitel’s bracket and seed list, which does guess the committee – CLICK HERE
-For Chad Sherwood’s Under the Radar Game of the Day, as well as the other Highlighted Games – CLICK HERE
NOTES FROM DAVID
-This is the last staff bracket that we will post before conference tournaments begin. The reason I am posting the last bracket is because I am right more than anyone else on the staff. You’ll see comments below from some of the rest of the staff below, and anyone who makes comments disagree with what I’ve done is wrong!
-The First Four games actually needed to be flipped. I had Cincinnati and Michigan ahead of Oregon State and Alabama, but if you look at the bracket you’ll notice something very unusual. All of the 6 v 11 games are on Thursday/Saturday, and all but one of the 5 v 12 games are on Thursday/Saturday. Oregon State cannot play Arizona, so Cincinnati v Michigan had to go to the one and only Friday/Sunday location.
-I like Texas a lot, and I don’t understand why they’re not getting more love. I can only assume it’s because of their record, but the majority of their losses have been road losses to protected seeds, and they have some really big wins as well. I think they’ll end up as a protected seed by the time it’s all over.
-California has made the biggest jump up my seed list over the last few weeks. The reason for that is simple. They went from being a team that had good wins at home, but hardly any wins at all on the road to being a team that had good wins at home and some notable road wins to go along with it.
-Seton Hall is another team that should be valued more than they are. They just knocked off Xavier, and they’re 8-1 in their last nine games.
-The bubble is always weak. I think we say every year that it is weaker than it was the previous year. This year is no exception. The bubble teams from the power conferences that will end up playing their way in will most likely boost their resumes as they go through the rest of the season and conference tournaments. But, having said that, the exclusion of Louisville and SMU means that two teams will get in that otherwise wouldn’t have, so the bubble will be slightly weaker just for that reason alone.
-I also did something that I know Chad hates. The projected conference champions are all current first placed teams.
TEAMS THAT WERE NEXT IN LINE: Saint Bonaventure, George Washington, Gonzaga, Georgia Tech, Florida State, Tulsa, BYU, Florida
STAFF COMMENTS
CHAD
-I agree with David on the top 8 teams, and that despite their loss this week Oklahoma belongs as a 1 seed. I would not, however, have Virginia as a 1 seed. I know this may sound crazy to some given that they are two games out of first place in their conference, but I really like Michigan State’s overall profile better than anyone other that Kansas, Oklahoma and Villanova. The Spartans would be on my 1 line right now, but it is admittedly a close call with almost all the 2 seeds in contention for that spot.
-I hate agreeing with David, but he is right about Texas and has them exactly where I think they belong.
-All season long I have had Cal way higher ranked than David. I am shocked that he has them on the 5 line suddenly (I would argue they are a 6 at best and maybe still a 7). The Golden Bears still don’t have a win away from home against a team that is in this field.
-VCU not only in but on the 10 line and inside the First Four makes no sense at all. Yes, they won at G.W., but the Colonials are not an NCAA Tournament team. The Rams simply have nothing tournament worthy on their profile and are not outright in first place in their conference. Even if you have them in as an auto-bid winner, they don’t belong above the 12 line.
-Oregon State in the First Four. I think David and I disagree “slightly” here as I would have them wearing white in the Round of 64. Three top 20 wins, wins away from home against teams that are in the field or on the bubble (Tulsa and Stanford), 9 Top 100 wins and no bad losses. There is noone anywhere close to the Bubble with a resume that solid.
-I would have had Michigan out and St. Bonaventure in, but that is a very close call and I fully understand going the other way there. The other team I would have had in that David left out was Stanford. I am amazed that David did not even consider them! The Cardinal have a lot of losses, but they have three Top 20 wins, two more in the Top 50 one of which was on the road, and only one loss outside of the Top 50. In fact, 10 of their 12 losses were to teams in this field above them, and a 11th was to an SMU team that would also outrank them if they were eligible. Five wins over teams that are above you in the field and only one loss to a team below you gets you a serious look in my book.
JOHN
-Michigan State and Virginia makes for a fascinating debate – the way things stand right now, I’d personally have Sparty #4 overall and Virginia #5 overall. I just think the Hoos have too many iffy losses (within their conference) for a #1 seed. (I’m also waiting for the punchline from Griggs that losing to Tim Miles doesn’t hurt whatsoever)
-I would also argue that Miami deserves better than a 4 seed; I’d even argue that they could be the last 2-seed with 8 wins (could be 9 if Princeton wins the Ivy) against the NCAA Tournament field and 4 wins against teams that could be protected seeds. The Hurricanes are also a co-leader in the ACC thanks to wins against Virginia and Louisville last week; I think they’re being judged a little harshly after one bad outing at North Carolina.
-I’m also surprised that Arizona isn’t dropping further down the seed list; their only wins against teams that may end up making the field are USC and Oregon State, both of which took place in Tuscon. They have a lot of wins against teams that appear to be in the 51-100 RPI range. Contrast that to a team like California who’s blasting teams left and right in Berkeley regardless of quality. If Arizona can’t beat California or even Stanford at home this week, I’ll be submitting a first ballot that won’t include the Wildcats.
-After getting to see a few NCAA Tournament teams up close and personal yesterday, I’d submit that Seton Hall belongs at least a seed line higher and Monmouth a seed line lower. If Monmouth isn’t hitting their shots, they don’t have the confidence in their inside game that they’ll need to spring an upset in the NCAA Tournament. They’re certainly resilient – Niagara hit an ungodly 28 out of 29 free throws before missing a crucial pair in the final minute yesterday.
-Butler has a lot of work to do to end up as a 9 seed, but they get another shot at home against Seton Hall (and later Marquette) to bolster their profile. Matchups seem to dictate Butler’s level of play; if they face a team like Seton Hall in the Big East tournament, they should be able to get a win. If they match up against a team like Xavier, they’re in trouble.
-I don’t have any problem with the teams that David left out of the field, either. Gonzaga does have a share of the WCC title, but if they finally beat St. Mary’s, they’ll wind up with the auto bid. Lose a 3rd time and they’ll be NIT bound; beating BYU twice won’t be enough this year under such a scenario.