Bracket Racket 02/23/14

HHDpodsOn our latest edition of the Bracket Racket, we recap what was a busy week in college basketball, focusing on:

  • Jim Boeheim’s silly meltdown at the end of Duke-Syracuse, and Cuse’s danger zone to end the season
  • Michigan’s surprise sweep of Michigan State and the implications it had for the Big Ten race
  • Wisconsin’s sudden resurrection
  • Nebraska’s tournament chances
  • The still-existent possibility of a 2-bid SEC
  • The muddle of the Atlantic 10 and Big East

We also preview the upcoming games this week, with special looks at St Joseph’s vs Dayton, Iowa vs Minnesota, and Nebraska vs Illinois.

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Small Conference Game of the Day – February 23

YALE at COLUMBIA, 1:30 PM Eastern, NBC Sports Network

Heading into the season, Harvard appeared to be the clear favorite to run away with the Ivy League regular season title and the automatic bid that comes with it.  After the first month of the year, Princeton looked like the one team that might be able to challenge the Crimson.  As we got closer to the start of the conference season, Columbia looked like it might be the team instead.  However, the Ivy League regular season was disastrous for both.  Princeton has already been mathematically eliminated from the conference title race and Columbia sits three games back in the standings with only five games left to play.

With Princeton and Columbia’s failings in Ivy League play, most people would not have been surprised if Harvard had already clinched the conference title by now.  That has not happened.  The Yale Bulldogs, a team given up for all but dead after a 5-8 non-conference record that included losses to the likes of Bryant and Albany and no win better than Hartford, have streaked through the Ivy League season, standing at 8-1 in conference heading into today’s game including a 74-67 win at Harvard (their lone loss is a somewhat mystifying 73-56 loss at Brown).

Yale’s 8-1 Ivy league mark places them half a game behind Harvard with a chance to move back into a first place tie with a win today at Columbia.  Yale controls their own destiny, as winning all remaining games would give them an outright first place finish in the Ivy.  They could even afford one loss, as long as it is not their home contest March 7 against Harvard, and guarantee no worse than a tie and a one game playoff for the Ivy League title.  However, they do need to win games, and today’s game at Columbia plus their next game, Friday night at Princeton, are their two toughest contests in conference other than the Harvard games.

Columbia enters today’s game at 5-4 in the Ivy and 16-10 overall.  The Lions’ 147 RPI is third best in the Ivy behind only Harvard and Yale.  Kyle Smith’s team has been competitive all season, including a game back in November at Michigan State that they were in almost all the way and a six point loss to St. John’s in December.  While the Lions will probably not be in postseason play this year unless the CIT comes calling, they have definitely shown the ability to play with the “big boys” this season.  And they will definitely impact the balance of the Ivy League schedule as they not only host Yale today, but have a trip to Harvard (whom they lost to in double OT last weekend) next Saturday.

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Highlighted Games for Saturday, Feb 22nd

SYRACUSE AT DUKE (ACC). This is the showcase game of the day. Everyone is expecting a great game because of what happened the first time they met, but it wouldn’t shock me if Duke won big. Both teams are coming off losses and looking to rebound, but Syracuse lost to a really bad Boston College team, and hadn’t been playing all that well prior to that loss. I wouldn’t be surprised if they don’t end up on the #1 line. Having said that, if they win tonight, it’s hard to say that they shouldn’t be a #1 seed.

-XAVIER AT GEORGETOWN (Big East). I think both of these teams are on the bubble, but Xavier is probably in better shape than Georgetown. They desperately need a decent road win, though. Georgetown desperately needs a win of any kind. It’s a very pivotal and very important game for both teams.

-FLORIDA AT OLE MISS (SEC). Florida will likely get the top #1 seed if they win out.

-LOUISVILLE AT CINCINNATI (American). The big knock on Louisville is a lack of quality wins. This would be HUGE quality win if they’re able to pull it off.

-WISCONSIN AT IOWA (Big Ten). Really good showcase game between two teams with great profiles that could both end up as protected seeds.

-WAKE FOREST AT NORTH CAROLINA (ACC). UNC’s win streak will likely continue, and if it does their profile will continue to improve.

-CLEMSON AT GEORGIA TECH (ACC). Clemson is outside the bubble, and making the field will require a strong finish to the season.

-SAINT JOHN’S AT VILLANOVA (Big East). I believe Saint John’s is outside the bubble, but a win like this could get them inside of it really quick. The problem is that they’re not going to be at full strength. The other problem is that even if they were at full strength, winning at Nova isn’t easy.

-TEXAS TECH AT OKLAHOMA STATE (Big Twelve). This is pretty much a must win for Oklahoma State. They can’t afford to lose any more regular season games.

-BAYLOR AT WEST VIRGINIA (Big Twelve). Both teams are on the bubble, so this is hugely important.

-NOTRE DAME AT VIRGINIA (ACC). The way the season is playing out, I wouldn’t be at all surprised if Virginia finished first in the ACC.

-MARQUETTE AT DEPAUL (Big East). I don’t even think Marquette is on the bubble, but some do. If they want to make the field, they’re pretty much down to their last strike.

-DAYTON AT DUQUESNE (Atlantic Ten). Dayton needs to continue their win streak if they want to land inside the bubble.

-FORDHAM AT SAINT JOSEPH’S (Atlantic Ten). Saint Joe’s shouldn’t have any trouble getting the win and improving to 9-3 in the league.

-SOUTH DAKOTA STATE AT NORTH DAKOTA STATE (Summit League). North Dakota State is a long shot for an at-large bid, but they have a healthy RPI and a first place finish should at least get them a look. This is a big game for them at home against an SDSU that is just a game behind them in the standings.

-TENNESSEE AT TEXAS A&M (SEC). Tennessee’s margin for error is pretty much zero.

-IOWA STATE AT TCU (Big Twelve). Iowa State is in great shape and shouldn’t have trouble avoiding the bad loss.

-LSU AT KENTUCKY (SEC). Kentucky is safe and can lock up a good seed if they hold serve. LSU needs to win a game like this if they want to get any sort of a serious look.

-KANSAS STATE AT OKLAHOMA (Big Twelve). K State has been awful on the road, and could really improve their profile if they could get a road win against a tournament caliber team.

-LA SALLE AT RICHMOND (Atlantic Ten). I feel Richmond is outside the bubble and because they’re shorthanded I don’t see them getting the wins they need to get back inside of it. But, as of now, they’re still in the discussion.

-UCLA AT STANFORD (Pac Twelve). This is a big game for UCLA, who could really improve their resume with a good road win, and a bigger game for Stanford, who is on the bubble and needs a notable win.

-MINNESOTA AT OHIO STATE (Big Ten). Minnesota is inside the bubble, but at the rate they’re going they’re going to cut it close….unless they can pick up a huge road win in a game like this.

-UTEP AT SOUTHERN MISS (Conference USA). This has suddenly become a log-jammed conference with five teams who could win it. These are two of the five teams.

-NORTHWESTERN STATE AT SFA (Southland). A win for SFA gets them to 25-2 on the year.

-TEXAS AT KANSAS (Big Twelve). Kansas hasn’t looked as good as we’re used to seeing lately, but this is a showcase game at home for them, and I wouldn’t be surprised if they snapped out of it in a big way. I still think the Jayhawks are on track to get a #1 seed.

-DRAKE AT WICHITA STATE (Missouri Valley). If Wichita State wins out, they’ll get a #1 seed.

-GEORGE WASHINGTON AT SAINT LOUIS (Atlantic Ten). I think GW is pretty safely inside the bubble, so they’re playing with house money tonight. A win would be tremendous, and a loss won’t hurt them at all. SLU will likely end up as a protected seed if they win out.

-HARVARD AT PRINCETON (Ivy League). It’s a two horse race in the Ivy between Harvard and Yale.

-MISSOURI AT ALABAMA (SEC). Missouri isn’t the best road team, but they desperately need this one.

-ARIZONA AT COLORADO (Pac Twelve). This is a really important game. It’s a chance for Colorado to show they are a solid tournament team, and it’s a chance for Arizona to show they should still be a #1 seed despite being shorthanded.

-PORTLAND AT BYU (West Coast). BYU is coming off a big win against Gonzaga, but they’re still right on the bubble and can’t afford a slip up to a weak team like Portland.

-TEMPLE AT MEMPHIS (American). Memphis should win easily.

-SAN DIEGO STATE AT NEW MEXICO (Mountain West). It’s the game of the year in the Mountain West. San Diego State is clearly the better team, but New Mexico may be the better team when the game is in New Mexico. San Diego State is likely a protected seed either way, but a win tonight would pretty much solidify it.

-GONZAGA AT SAN DIEGO (West Coast). I think Gonzaga’s margin for error is small, and they don’t have another home game the rest of the year, so it may not be the easiest finish in the world.

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SCGD and Under the Radar: February 21

Tonight’s Small Conference Game of the Day comes from the Atlantic Sun conference where the league leading Mercer Bears will be facing their toughest conference test so far, on the road at Florida Gulf Coast (6:00 PM Eastern, ESPNU).  Mercer enters tonight’s game as the clear favorite in the conference, sitting at 12-2 in league and 21-6 overall.  Their RPI is at 68 and KenPom is at 85 — good enough for us to be projecting them as at least a 14 seed in the NCAA tournament.  The defending conference tournament champions, FGCU, enter at 11-3 in conference and 17-10 overall, but with an RPI down at 155 and KenPom of 179, probably placing them into the 16 seed line should they advance to the Big Dance.  A win by Gulf Coast tonight will tie things up at the top of the conference standings with only 3 games left to play, while a Mercer win would give them a 2 game lead and a sweep of the Eagles, all but locking up the #1 seed in the A-Sun tournament.

For even more information on our predictions for where these two teams, and pretty much every other team in contention for a league title in a single bid conference, could end up in the NCAAs, check out this week’s Under the Radar video podcast.  In addition to going over these teams, David and I take an even closer look at the chaos happening in Baton Rouge with Southern University’s postseason eligibility, discuss the causes of madness that would make someone think the Big East will place seven teams into the NCAA tournament, and run down out Under the Radar Top Ten lists, with a particular focus on BYU’s current resume. All that and more!

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Bracket Rundown: Feb 19th

Due to technical difficulties, the camera is on David Griggs for the entire show and you can only hear Chad, which means it is a much better show!!

There are five teams that look like solid #1 seeds, and Chad and David debate which of the five teams should be moved down to the #2. They also look at teams like Louisville and Gonzaga, who are high in the rankings, but who’s profile just doesn’t match up, and they discuss what the committee will likely do with them.

Nebraska is now on the bubble, and since their schedule was back loaded, all of their remaining games appear to be winnable, so it’s not too crazy to think they can crash the dance.

There is disagreement on the bubble, and how much the committee will value teams that scheduled hard and played a lot of road games vs teams that had better wins, but got those wins at home.

All that, and much more!!

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Small Conference Game of the Day – February 20

PORTLAND STATE at SOUTHERN UTAH, 9:00 PM Eastern, No TV

On November 8, 2013, in their very first game of the season, the Southern Utah Thunderbirds defeated non-D1 Southwestern Arizona 85-78.  While they have had a few close games since then, that was the last time that SUU won a game.  They are 1-22 overall, 0-22 against Division 1, and 0-14 in the Big Sky Conference.  With the Big Sky only taking the top seven teams in its regular season standings into the conference tournament, Southern Utah has already been mathematically eliminated from being able to even tie for the #7 seed.  They are one of only four teams that remain winless in conference play (joining TCU, Illinois-Chicago and The Citadel).  And they are one of 14 teams that has been eliminated form contention for the NCAA championship this season (joining the six transitional teams, five teams on APR postseason ban, Cornell and NJIT).

Tonight, Southern Utah hosts the Portland State Vikings.  Portland State enters tonight’s game at 6-8 in the Big Sky and 11-12 overall.  The Vikings are in 10th place in the Big Sky standings but only one game behind a five way tie for the final spots in the Big Sky tournament field.  Tonight’s game is clearly SUU’s best chance for a win this season.  After tonight they have three more home games left and two road games, though KenPom does not give the Thunderbirds a better than 20% chance to win any of those.  Tonight, they have a 26% chance to win.

Even though Southern Utah has been eliminated from postseason play, they do still have a lot left to play for.  As has been mentioned several times, HoopsHD annually awards the Centenary Award to the worst team in Division I.  With Grambling having picked up their second Division I win of the season earlier this week — and a true road win nonetheless — the award is now clearly Southern Utah’s to lose..er win.  However, if they can find a way to win tonight or in any of their remaining games, the award may not head to Cedar City, Utah.  Tonight’s game will go a long way to making that final decision.

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