Joby’s Nitty Gritty Rankings

Joby’s Nitty Gritty Rankings Explained

Joby’s Nitty Gritty (JNG) rankings were created as an attempt to quantify the characteristics the selection committee has always stated and shown to be important as key factors in their analysis.  He actually draws from what is known as the “Nitty Gritty Sheet” that the NCAA Selection Committee uses in taking the inputs for the statistics that make up these ratings.  This is why it is known as his Nitty Gritty Ratings.

In 2017, the JNG was the most accurate published “rating” at predicting the Committee.  It got all 68 teams correct and all but 9 teams within 4 spots of the official seed list released by the Committee (http://www.ncaa.com/news/basketball-men/article/2017-03-12/march-madness-bracket-every-seed-ranked-68-1).  Among protected seeds, only Louisville (8th vs 14th) was missed.  Otherwise, it was perfect through not only the top 4 seeds but the top 6 seed lines.  In 2018, it was second to the KPI among the 100+ published ratings with 66 of 68 teams and 8 teams within 4 spots of the official seed list.

UPDATE:  In 2019, the JNG was once again the #1 Computer-based Metric in predicting the actual field IN THE ENTIRE WORLD!

The ratings have a strong history of picking dismissed outliers.  When nobody thought UCLA should even get close to a bid in 2015, the ratings revealed that they actually were in the thick of the discussion (further proof the ratings are meant to mimic the Committee, NOT evaluate merit in a manner that should be adopted).  The big surprise by the committee in 2016 was the inclusion of the Tulsa Golden Hurricane and, once again, the JNG called it.  In 2017,  the biggest surprise was not an inclusion but the seeding of Vanderbilt.  Many did not even have the Commodores in the field, but the Committee gave them a 9 seed and 33rd overall mimicking the JNG’s 9 seed and 34th overall.   Last year, the JNG not only had the slumping Sooners in the field but nailed their 10 seed absolutely correct.  We know of few other “formulas” that have the ability to accomplish this task.

The baseline for strength used to be the RPI.  The Committee, rightfully or wrongfully, has now switched to the new “NET” formula as the primary baseline to determine what a “good win” or a “bad loss” is.  To determine this distinction the JNG feeds off a weighted matrix that incorporates the “quadrant” system, influenced by fellow HoopsHD contributor Kyle Lamb, and adopted by the Committee for 2018.

Other factors such as high level wins away from home, wins against “the field,” conference leaders, overall records, out of conference SOS, and “recency bias” are all components that comprise the ratings.   The JNG is “advanced” as it recalculates until stabilized.  This is a crucial trait as one of the key criteria, wins against the “at large” field, is reliant on the rating system repeatedly recalculating upon itself until the exact number that fits an “at large” field is matched up with potential conference champion spots to create a cut line.  One can see this critical junction in the ratings listed below with a gap in the list, usually in a spot between 45th and 50th in the ratings.  One can use this cut line to easily eyeball a “last 4 in” (above) and “first 4 out” (below) the gap.   A similar gap exists on the chart below for the NIT and CBI cutoffs, typically around 85-95 and 105-115 respectively.

We will try to update the ratings daily in the morning so you can see the ebb and flow of where teams land.

Last updated on Sunday, MARCH 17th at 9:25pm, est

RANK Final Rating Conf
1 Virginia 5.517689555 ACC
2 North Carolina 5.15017407 ACC
3 DUKE 4.958742359 ACC
4 MICHIGAN  STATE 4.48089347 BIG
5 Kentucky 4.27134483 SEC
6 Tennessee 4.026416188 SEC
7 Gonzaga 3.838812266 WCC
8 Michigan 3.620183313 BIG
9 Houston 3.604240036 AAC
10 LSU 3.25686149 SEC
11 Kansas 3.152110702 BXII
12 Texas Tech 2.926877357 BXII
13 Kansas State 2.647036775 BXII
14 Purdue 2.613005076 BIG
15 Florida State 2.579718261 ACC
16 Wisconsin 2.357008398 BIG
17 VILLANOVA 2.150305827 BE
18 Marquette 1.984257526 BE
19 Virginia Tech 1.971094557 ACC
20 IOWA STATE 1.970131099 BXII
21 AUBURN 1.882522788 SEC
22 Mississippi State 1.86397439 SEC
23 BUFFALO 1.794295316 MAC
24 Maryland 1.772212581 BIG
25 WOFFORD 1.76501157 SoCON
26 CINCINNATI 1.669988074 AAC
27 Louisville 1.370610306 ACC
28 Minnesota 1.362723907 BIG
29 Seton Hall 1.35097144 BE
30 Washington 1.269662207 P12
31 Iowa 1.256910873 BIG
32 Nevada 1.251738214 MWC
33 Ole Miss 1.164231681 SEC
34 Central Florida 1.098119522 AAC
35 Baylor 1.082628244 BXII
36 Oklahoma 1.053450522 BXII
37 Temple 1.018514443 AAC
38 TCU 0.946215688 BXII
39 UTAH STATE 0.929545454 MWC
40 UNC-Greensboro 0.909514487 SoCON
41 Florida 0.84456681 SEC
42 Syracuse 0.800025707 ACC
43 VCU 0.756775568 A10
44 St. John’s 0.701847055 BE
45 Arizona State 0.68132439 P12
46 NEW MEXICO ST 0.666780193 WAC
47 Ohio State 0.642628394 BIG
48 MURRAY STATE 0.608860128 OVC
49 North Carolina State 0.586245964 ACC
50 ST. MARY’S 0.580702371 WCC
51 Clemson 0.568978176 ACC
52 UC IRVINE 0.567833324 BW
53 Creighton 0.555399938 BE
54 Belmont 0.5485031 OVC
55 Alabama 0.531849319 SEC
56 Memphis 0.484337919 AAC
57 Lipscomb 0.473871202 ASUN
58 OREGON 0.467270945 P12
59 Furman 0.40961226 SoCON
60 Indiana 0.344341827 BIG
61 Xavier 0.312773777 BE
62 Georgetown 0.287261652 BE
63 LIBERTY 0.203752756 ASUN
64 Toledo 0.090643012 MAC
65 VERMONT 0.058835584 AmE
66 Wichita State 0.054157367 AAC
67 East Tennessee State 0.044625272 SoCON
68 Dayton -0.018535569 A10
69 Providence -0.040640136 BE
70 Nebraska -0.040993723 BIG
71 Texas -0.070647942 BXII
72 Davidson -0.081116467 A10
73 Hofstra -0.194381522 CAA
74 Utah Valley -0.217979604 WAC
75 NORTHEASTERN -0.268108515 CAA
76 YALE -0.294797083 IVY
77 Fresno State -0.300746263 MWC
78 Arkansas -0.316321466 SEC
79 Colorado -0.325352765 P12
80 OLD DOMINION -0.377622242 CUSA
81 BYU -0.383879503 WCC
82 San Francisco -0.399154946 WCC
83 San Diego -0.458585767 WCC
84 College of Charleston -0.480420547 CAA
85 San Diego State -0.500268243 MWC
86 GEORGIA STATE -0.531124838 SBC
87 Tulsa -0.585956024 AAC
88 Drake -0.601386249 MVC
89 SAINT LOUIS -0.622770625 A10
90 Oregon State -0.649284874 P12
91 Kent State -0.667925185 MAC
92 MONTANA -0.684915954 BSKY
93 Western Kentucky -0.760723848 CUSA
94 NORTHERN KENTUCKY -0.779140663 HZN
95 South Florida -0.843197641 AAC
96 Utah -0.843581695 P12
97 Harvard -0.846755119 IVY
98 Grand Canyon -0.858053451 WAC
99 South Carolina -0.86821025 SEC
100 Bowling Green -0.906178619 MAC
101 Butler -0.919315745 BE
102 Arizona -0.931180402 P12
103 Jacksonville State -0.933268043 OVC
104 Pennsylvania -0.938459432 IVY
105 Texas Southern -0.939593231 SWAC
106 DePaul -0.939945913 BE
107 Oklahoma State -0.940039226 BXII
108 Penn State -0.940380519 BIG
109 West Virginia -0.940737005 BXII
110 Missouri -0.942369637 SEC
111 Austin Peay -0.962648211 OVC
112 COLGATE -0.980826223 PAT
113 Texas A&M -1.002443991 SEC
114 South Dakota State -1.006135085 SUM
115 Radford -1.010086221 BSo
116 Rhode Island -1.025159178 A10
117 Stony Brook -1.051392385 AmE
118 UMBC -1.055507341 AmE
119 Rutgers -1.056287784 BIG
120 ABILENE CHRISTIAN -1.074790425 SLC
121 Loyola Marymount -1.083832961 WCC
122 Central Michigan -1.090430261 MAC
123 Princeton -1.09591657 IVY
124 Southern Miss -1.155565004 CUSA
125 Georgia Southern -1.158136886 SBC
126 Bucknell -1.16809472 PAT
127 Texas State -1.250006409 SBC
128 Omaha -1.251228569 SUM
129 Marshall -1.307947541 CUSA
130 NJIT -1.313550361 WAC
131 Connecticut -1.315071241 AAC
132 GARDNER-WEBB -1.322071947 BSo
133 Louisiana Tech -1.352917339 CUSA
134 UAB -1.362977298 CUSA
135 Wright State -1.379058447 HZN
136 Loyola-Chicago -1.398543776 MVC
137 Lehigh -1.399652598 PAT
138 PRAIRIE VIEW -1.415918407 SWAC
139 Sam Houston State -1.435166135 SLC
140 UC-Santa Barbara -1.475008796 BW
141 UCLA -1.504449615 P12
142 Illinois -1.541944968 BIG
143 George Mason -1.563548454 A10
144 Louisiana -1.5878193 SBC
145 Northern Colorado -1.628183796 BSKY
146 Duquesne -1.635153373 A10
147 Boston College -1.649658027 ACC
148 Georgia Tech -1.672149112 ACC
149 Texas-Rio Grande Valley -1.696555597 WAC
150 Winthrop -1.71458588 BSo
151 St. Bonaventure -1.715336154 A10
152 North Texas -1.720115181 CUSA
153 USC -1.834204487 P12
154 BRADLEY -1.838134311 MVC
155 Campbell -1.843424058 BSo
156 Pittsburgh -1.848033525 ACC
157 UNLV -1.865201357 MWC
158 Stanford -1.868488008 P12
159 Norfolk State -1.915391943 MEAC
160 Cal Baptist -1.935121019 WAC
161 Lamar -1.945848542 SLC
162 North Carolina A&T -1.959902546 MEAC
163 New Orleans -1.975247546 SLC
164 FAIRLEIGH DICKINSON -1.982780945 NEC
165 Hawai’i -1.9947917 BW
166 Florida Atlantic -2.035872352 CUSA
167 Florida International -2.035934039 CUSA
168 Texas-Arlington -2.036518364 SBC
169 Notre Dame -2.058235698 ACC
170 Seattle -2.059801619 WAC
171 Louisiana-Monroe -2.075687285 SBC
172 Texas-San Antonio -2.092838231 CUSA
173 Southern Illinois -2.102233231 MVC
174 Hartford -2.148696939 AmE
175 St. Francis (PA) -2.159271377 NEC
176 Brown -2.159884636 IVY
177 SMU -2.263159808 AAC
178 Northern Illinois -2.275827546 MAC
179 Samford -2.294476245 SoCON
180 Miami -2.300910992 ACC
181 Akron -2.343665025 MAC
182 Santa Clara -2.390689726 WCC
183 Presbyterian -2.395914254 BSo
184 Georgia -2.40135121 SEC
185 Weber State -2.45020209 BSKY
186 Charleston Southern -2.477027446 BSo
187 Fort Wayne -2.506670315 SUM
188 Northwestern -2.534128545 BIG
189 IONA -2.588867869 MAAC
190 Bakersfield -2.628466641 WAC
191 Wake Forest -2.649331037 ACC
192 Green Bay -2.65950914 HZN
193 Illinois State -2.726042423 MVC
194 NORTH CAROLINA CENTRAL -2.7742046 MEAC
195 New Mexico -2.837086007 MWC
196 North Florida -2.841452385 ASUN
197 Delaware -2.88136607 CAA
198 Vanderbilt -2.966449061 SEC
199 Rider -3.009251943 MAAC
200 Eastern Michigan -3.022032508 MAC
201 Southeastern Louisiana -3.025415464 SLC
202 Cal State-Fullerton -3.071494962 BW
203 Ball State -3.148216018 MAC
204 Quinnipiac -3.155252608 MAAC
205 Missouri State -3.160765754 MVC
206 High Point -3.186751157 BSo
207 Miami-Ohio -3.216690562 MAC
208 Grambling -3.223563927 SWAC
209 Siena -3.258012412 MAAC
210 Ohio -3.326734162 MAC
211 Robert Morris -3.351428277 NEC
212 Illinois-Chicago -3.492545754 HZN
213 Pepperdine -3.529702143 WCC
214 Indiana State -3.546939283 MVC
215 Pacific -3.55062915 WCC
216 South Alabama -3.576576805 SBC
217 NORTH DAKOTA STATE -3.585818845 SUM
218 Portland State -3.586825754 BSKY
219 Oakland -3.623508306 HZN
220 Northern Iowa -3.63755036 MVC
221 St. Joseph’s -3.647150631 A10
222 Howard -3.651818277 MEAC
223 Air Force -3.660057731 MWC
224 Cornell -3.676954895 IVY
225 Long Beach State -3.684767317 BW
226 IUPUI -3.692124585 HZN
227 Washington State -3.723519682 P12
228 Southern Utah -3.728602085 BSKY
229 Florida Gulf Coast -3.740482024 ASUN
230 Holy Cross -3.746057387 PAT
231 Citadel -3.758776767 SoCON
232 Coastal Carolina -3.788959021 SBC
233 Eastern Washington -3.820683301 BSKY
234 East Carolina -3.886293399 AAC
235 Canisius -3.887873154 MAAC
236 Boise State -3.911264781 MWC
237 American -3.92166308 PAT
238 William & Mary -3.922075453 CAA
239 Mercer -3.987628175 SoCON
240 LIU Brooklyn -4.034400916 NEC
241 Montana State -4.04046757 BSKY
242 California -4.102335209 P12
243 Hampton -4.159642368 BSo
244 Sacramento State -4.16306392 BSKY
245 Stephen F. Austin -4.179361178 SLC
246 Chattanooga -4.206692923 SoCON
247 Morehead State -4.237549808 OVC
248 Colorado State -4.278646139 MWC
249 South Dakota -4.280743316 SUM
250 St. Francis (BK) -4.288864647 NEC
251 Massachusetts-Lowell -4.3058614 AmE
252 Valparaiso -4.329206432 MVC
253 Eastern Illinois -4.330177308 OVC
254 Rice -4.348308477 CUSA
255 Middle Tennessee -4.370656008 CUSA
256 Sacred Heart -4.3838264 NEC
257 VMI -4.393810585 SoCON
258 Arkansas State -4.420573477 SBC
259 Boston University -4.426546129 PAT
260 Drexel -4.442183185 CAA
261 Texas A&M-CC -4.469883316 SLC
262 Central Arkansas -4.499963402 SLC
263 Navy -4.534474002 PAT
264 Richmond -4.561943855 A10
265 UMKC -4.562528216 WAC
266 Eastern Kentucky -4.584770454 OVC
267 James Madison -4.589721345 CAA
268 Bethune-Cookman -4.606001884 MEAC
269 Massachusetts -4.6080013 A10
270 Detroit -4.627706502 HZN
271 La Salle -4.644183901 A10
272 Wagner -4.656973023 NEC
273 Tennessee-Martin -4.669657591 OVC
274 Houston Baptist -4.677317644 SLC
275 Longwood -4.696144062 BSo
276 North Dakota -4.700553434 SUM
277 Alabama State -4.725306582 SWAC
278 UC-Davis -4.746002691 BW
279 Cal State-Northridge -4.748283487 BW
280 Army -4.756220393 PAT
281 Arkansas-Pine Bluff -4.760355977 SWAC
282 Monmouth -4.812065522 MAAC
283 Jackson State -4.815093477 SWAC
284 Jacksonville -4.876889547 ASUN
285 Appalachian State -4.907806008 SBC
286 Florida A&M -4.915913417 MEAC
287 North Alabama -4.92840617 ASUN
288 Evansville -4.984233216 MVC
289 Nicholls State -4.999392329 SLC
290 Idaho State -5.042345013 BSKY
291 Troy -5.098565952 SBC
292 Albany -5.108641885 AmE
293 Oral Roberts -5.131902923 SUM
294 Fordham -5.138929547 A10
295 Elon -5.142650423 CAA
296 Youngstown State -5.159843216 HZN
297 Savannah State -5.164664627 MEAC
298 Loyola -5.184110293 PAT
299 UNC-Wilmington -5.236638561 CAA
300 Marist -5.245444183 MAAC
301 Dartmouth -5.248525485 IVY
302 Niagara -5.26692497 MAAC
303 George Washington -5.296004707 A10
304 Western Michigan -5.39616107 MAC
305 Western Carolina -5.409021654 SoCON
306 Towson -5.49314 CAA
307 Lafayette -5.545218172 PAT
308 Binghamton -5.554739231 AmE
309 Alcorn State -5.563855161 SWAC
310 Northern Arizona -5.617918801 BSKY
311 SIU Edwardsville -5.634012622 OVC
312 Bryant -5.645098465 NEC
313 St. Peter’s -5.648703377 MAAC
314 Manhattan -5.659992047 MAAC
315 Tennessee State -5.714865018 OVC
316 Northwestern State -5.73561361 SLC
317 Columbia -5.751204575 IVY
318 Central Connecticut -5.773669034 NEC
319 Wyoming -5.781327239 MWC
320 Tulane -5.799583711 AAC
321 Little Rock -5.807927693 SBC
322 UC-Riverside -5.838000183 BW
323 Western Illinois -5.86644494 SUM
324 Morgan State -5.902907003 MEAC
325 Southeast Missouri State -5.921515848 OVC
326 UTEP -5.95476736 CUSA
327 Cleveland State -5.960609921 HZN
328 Coppin State -5.964851763 MEAC
329 Kennesaw State -6.016631816 ASUN
330 Portland -6.020988731 WCC
331 Charlotte -6.113172982 CUSA
332 Fairfield -6.138915585 MAAC
333 Mount St. Mary’s -6.22882597 NEC
334 Tennessee Tech -6.254876534 OVC
335 Southern -6.314159154 SWAC
336 South Carolina State -6.344909596 MEAC
337 Denver -6.378722972 SUM
338 Milwaukee -6.403253772 HZN
339 McNeese State -6.41921855 SLC
340 Maryland-Eastern Shore -6.509591654 MEAC
341 Mississippi Valley -6.663566816 SWAC
342 Cal Poly -6.677351557 BW
343 Stetson -6.704006112 ASUN
344 San Jose State -6.829914478 MWC
345 Maine -6.846948893 CAA
346 Chicago State -6.889386278 WAC
347 USC-Upstate -7.082635224 BSo
348 UNC-Asheville -7.163146529 BSo
349 Delaware State -7.172880384 MEAC
350 Alabama A&M -7.372058893 SWAC
351 Idaho -7.401666393 BSKY
352 Incarnate Word -7.43079655 SLC
353 New Hampshire -7.68718063 AmE