Joby’s Nitty Gritty Rankings Explained
ONCE AGAIN, in 2023 the JNG was the #1 100% Computer-based Metric in predicting the actual NCAA Tournament field IN THE ENTIRE WORLD!
Out of the 10 computer based metrics submitted to bracketmatrix.com; the JNG comes out on top with its best all-time score of 359, matching well-known human bracketologists, such as ESPN’s Joe Lunardi.
SUMMARY: Joby’s Nitty Gritty (JNG) rankings were created as an attempt to quantify the characteristics the selection committee has always stated and shown to be important as key factors in their analysis. He actually draws from what is known as the “Nitty Gritty Sheet” that the NCAA Selection Committee uses in taking the inputs for the statistics that make up these ratings. This is why it is known as his Nitty Gritty Ratings.
Soon we will we show a formal seed list gathered from the ratings and submitted to the bracketmatrix.com.
After that list are the ratings for all 363 teams. Once the season begins, if one wants to eyeball the at-large field, look around the 40th-55th spot. The gap there allows one to see who is in and who is out. Similarly the NIT field break can be seen between 75th and 95th. For fun we added a CBI break about 20 spots later. In addition, you may see some daily dramatic jumps and drops around the NIT cut line even if a team does not play due to specific requirements and traits taken that subtly change a team’s merits but have a dramatic effect on their profile.
PROJECTED SEED LIST – last updated Sunday March 17 at 4:20pm
SEED | TEAM |
1 | Connecticut |
1 | Houston |
1 | Purdue |
1 | North Carolina |
2 | Tennessee |
2 | Iowa State |
2 | Marquette |
2 | Arizona |
3 | Baylor |
3 | Creighton |
3 | Kansas |
3 | Illinois |
4 | Kentucky |
4 | Alabama |
4 | Auburn |
4 | Duke |
5 | BYU |
5 | Wisconsin |
5 | South Carolina |
5 | San Diego State |
6 | Utah State |
6 | Florida |
6 | Texas Tech |
6 | St. Mary’s |
7 | Nevada |
7 | Gonzaga |
7 | Clemson |
7 | Washington State |
8 | Boise State |
8 | Dayton |
8 | Texas |
8 | Nebraska |
9 | TCU |
9 | Colorado State |
9 | Mississippi State |
9 | Northwestern |
10 | Colorado |
10 | New Mexico |
10 | Texas A&M |
10 | Florida Atlantic |
10 | St. John’s |
10 | Michigan State |
11 | Oregon |
11 | Drake |
11 | North Carolina State |
11 | James Madison |
12 | Grand Canyon |
12 | McNeese State |
12 | Duquesne |
12 | UAB |
13 | Yale |
13 | Samford |
13 | College of Charleston |
13 | Vermont |
14 | Morehead State |
14 | Akron |
14 | Oakland |
14 | Colgate |
15 | South Dakota State |
15 | Stetson |
15 | Western Kentucky |
15 | Long Beach State |
16 | Longwood |
16 | Saint Peter’s |
16 | Grambling |
16 | Montana State |
16 | Howard |
16 | Wagner |
COMPLETE JNG RATINGS – last updated Sunday March 17 at 4:30pm
RANK | Final Rating | Conf | +/- | Ystdy | |
1 | Connecticut | 11.47081279 | BE | 1 | 2 |
2 | Houston | 11.39496962 | BXII | -1 | 1 |
3 | Purdue | 10.95372842 | BIG | – | 3 |
4 | North Carolina | 9.445474734 | ACC | – | 4 |
5 | Tennessee | 8.925748412 | SEC | – | 5 |
6 | Iowa State | 8.375062627 | BXII | 2 | 8 |
7 | Marquette | 8.238439039 | BE | -1 | 6 |
8 | Arizona | 8.120016664 | P12 | -1 | 7 |
9 | Baylor | 7.529531314 | BXII | – | 9 |
10 | Creighton | 7.174033583 | BE | – | 10 |
11 | Kansas | 7.116150883 | BXII | – | 11 |
12 | Illinois | 6.983091524 | BIG | 1 | 13 |
13 | Kentucky | 6.768134111 | SEC | -1 | 12 |
14 | Alabama | 6.621059685 | SEC | 1 | 15 |
15 | Auburn | 6.53585341 | SEC | 1 | 16 |
16 | Duke | 6.451406531 | ACC | -2 | 14 |
17 | BYU | 5.619605644 | BXII | 1 | 18 |
18 | Wisconsin | 5.61829641 | BIG | 3 | 21 |
19 | South Carolina | 5.513307796 | SEC | – | 19 |
20 | San Diego State | 5.465766224 | MWC | -3 | 17 |
21 | Utah State | 5.339784421 | MWC | 1 | 22 |
22 | Florida | 5.218105827 | SEC | 3 | 25 |
23 | Texas Tech | 5.168406934 | BXII | -3 | 20 |
24 | St. Mary’s | 5.143199656 | WCC | -1 | 23 |
25 | Nevada | 4.993045577 | MWC | 1 | 26 |
26 | Gonzaga | 4.896596079 | WCC | -2 | 24 |
27 | Clemson | 4.501509259 | ACC | – | 27 |
28 | Washington State | 4.420041404 | P12 | – | 28 |
29 | Boise State | 4.393026882 | MWC | – | 29 |
30 | Dayton | 4.313811362 | A10 | – | 30 |
31 | Texas | 4.297526734 | BXII | – | 31 |
32 | Nebraska | 4.17569193 | BIG | 2 | 34 |
33 | TCU | 4.011538038 | BXII | – | 33 |
34 | Colorado State | 3.994731451 | MWC | -2 | 32 |
35 | Mississippi State | 3.908755686 | SEC | 2 | 37 |
36 | Northwestern | 3.459250679 | BIG | 5 | 41 |
37 | Colorado | 3.457812993 | P12 | 2 | 39 |
38 | New Mexico | 3.439704014 | MWC | 4 | 42 |
39 | Texas A&M | 3.374619787 | SEC | 7 | 46 |
40 | Florida Atlantic | 3.357599036 | AAC | -5 | 35 |
41 | St. John’s | 3.309285241 | BE | -3 | 38 |
42 | Michigan State | 3.286065774 | BIG | -2 | 40 |
43 | Oklahoma | 3.19612445 | BXII | -7 | 36 |
44 | Oregon | 3.158272274 | P12 | 7 | 51 |
45 | Drake | 3.067176258 | MVC | – | 45 |
46 | North Carolina State | 3.001969011 | ACC | 10 | 56 |
47 | Providence | 2.878556692 | BE | – | 47 |
48 | Seton Hall | 2.806692398 | BE | -4 | 44 |
49 | Virginia | 2.761439707 | ACC | -6 | 43 |
50 | Kansas State | 2.546410119 | BXII | -2 | 48 |
51 | James Madison | 2.528952165 | SunB | 9 | 60 |
52 | Indiana State | 2.527222555 | MVC | -3 | 49 |
53 | Ohio State | 2.463338522 | BIG | 2 | 55 |
54 | Pittsburgh | 2.440684745 | ACC | -4 | 50 |
55 | Iowa | 2.417993638 | BIG | 2 | 57 |
56 | Villanova | 2.405133753 | BE | -4 | 52 |
57 | Wake Forest | 2.394590138 | ACC | -4 | 53 |
58 | Cincinnati | 2.340185502 | BXII | – | 58 |
59 | Grand Canyon | 2.327045463 | WAC | – | 59 |
60 | Butler | 2.288595571 | BE | 1 | 61 |
61 | Syracuse | 2.28316245 | ACC | 1 | 62 |
62 | Utah | 2.282168924 | P12 | 1 | 63 |
63 | UNLV | 2.088477881 | MWC | 1 | 64 |
64 | Virginia Tech | 2.068321088 | ACC | 1 | 65 |
65 | Richmond | 2.049676649 | A10 | 1 | 66 |
66 | McNeese State | 2.029654053 | SLC | 3 | 69 |
67 | Indiana | 1.911763245 | BIG | – | 67 |
68 | Memphis | 1.848510481 | AAC | – | 68 |
69 | VCU | 1.648684007 | A10 | 2 | 71 |
70 | Appalachian State | 1.611651077 | SunB | – | 70 |
71 | Princeton | 1.604150847 | IVY | -17 | 54 |
72 | Duquesne | 1.501503194 | A10 | 1 | 73 |
73 | Loyola-Chicago | 1.422770777 | A10 | 1 | 74 |
74 | Ole Miss | 1.40705962 | SEC | 1 | 75 |
75 | Central Florida | 1.297498246 | BXII | 1 | 76 |
76 | Bradley | 1.248088554 | MVC | 1 | 77 |
77 | LSU | 1.170886638 | SEC | 3 | 80 |
78 | South Florida | 1.166359225 | AAC | -6 | 72 |
79 | Boston College | 1.151461881 | ACC | – | 79 |
80 | UAB | 1.137219146 | AAC | 9 | 89 |
81 | Washington | 1.129751885 | P12 | – | 81 |
82 | Santa Clara | 1.020912174 | WCC | 1 | 83 |
83 | St. Joseph’s | 0.984166776 | A10 | -1 | 82 |
84 | Yale | 0.959085651 | IVY | 4 | 88 |
85 | Minnesota | 0.925566684 | BIG | – | 85 |
86 | Samford | 0.915709553 | SoCON | -2 | 84 |
87 | San Francisco | 0.888890933 | WCC | -1 | 86 |
88 | Xavier | 0.873873128 | BE | -1 | 87 |
89 | Florida State | 0.783983348 | ACC | 2 | 91 |
90 | St. Bonaventure | 0.669956665 | A10 | – | 90 |
91 | UC-Irvine | 0.653001882 | BW | 1 | 92 |
92 | Cornell | 0.597987473 | IVY | -14 | 78 |
93 | George Mason | 0.547081713 | A10 | – | 93 |
94 | SMU | 0.467530457 | AAC | – | 94 |
95 | College of Charleston | 0.354164558 | CAA | – | 95 |
96 | Vermont | 0.281205734 | AmE | 2 | 98 |
97 | Massachusetts | 0.264846138 | A10 | – | 97 |
98 | Northern Iowa | 0.249802419 | MVC | -2 | 96 |
99 | Belmont | 0.181965284 | MVC | – | 99 |
100 | Charlotte | 0.103949132 | AAC | – | 100 |
101 | UNC-Wilmington | 0.014418307 | CAA | – | 101 |
102 | North Texas | -0.001171719 | AAC | – | 102 |
103 | Georgia | -0.065432113 | SEC | – | 103 |
104 | Morehead State | -0.124015621 | OVC | – | 104 |
105 | Louisiana Tech | -0.13380952 | CUSA | – | 105 |
106 | Akron | -0.136699634 | MAC | 1 | 107 |
107 | Oakland | -0.16297636 | HZN | -1 | 106 |
108 | Penn State | -0.218292036 | BIG | – | 108 |
109 | Colgate | -0.285444717 | PAT | – | 109 |
110 | Tarleton | -0.292263334 | WAC | – | 110 |
111 | Southern Illinois | -0.32493292 | MVC | – | 111 |
112 | USC | -0.374457993 | P12 | – | 112 |
113 | Maryland | -0.383309065 | BIG | – | 113 |
114 | Miami | -0.514309159 | ACC | – | 114 |
115 | Rutgers | -0.567355666 | BIG | 2 | 117 |
116 | High Point | -0.617523831 | BSo | 2 | 118 |
117 | Georgia Tech | -0.619891642 | ACC | -1 | 116 |
118 | Arkansas | -0.633413405 | SEC | -3 | 115 |
119 | Bryant | -0.653336913 | AmE | – | 119 |
120 | UCLA | -0.661249154 | P12 | 10 | 130 |
121 | Hofstra | -0.664833526 | CAA | 2 | 123 |
122 | Western Carolina | -0.677196898 | SoCON | -1 | 121 |
123 | Eastern Washington | -0.680674774 | BSKY | -1 | 122 |
124 | Texas-Arlington | -0.702991487 | WAC | -4 | 120 |
125 | Weber State | -0.727327763 | BSKY | -1 | 124 |
126 | Toledo | -0.762922354 | MAC | -1 | 125 |
127 | UC-San Diego | -0.818075244 | BW | -1 | 126 |
128 | Arizona State | -0.867039229 | P12 | 3 | 131 |
129 | UNC-Greensboro | -0.869802612 | SoCON | -2 | 127 |
130 | Youngstown State | -0.921048421 | HZN | -2 | 128 |
131 | Sam Houston State | -0.922266135 | CUSA | -2 | 129 |
132 | Drexel | -0.927989099 | CAA | – | 132 |
133 | Montana | -0.98301812 | BSKY | – | 133 |
134 | Quinnipiac | -1.016311578 | MAAC | – | 134 |
135 | Chattanooga | -1.054992705 | SoCON | – | 135 |
136 | South Dakota State | -1.07851938 | SUM | – | 136 |
137 | Towson | -1.088642395 | CAA | – | 137 |
138 | Missouri State | -1.113606447 | MVC | – | 138 |
139 | Seattle | -1.120051554 | WAC | – | 139 |
140 | UNC-Asheville | -1.134615474 | BSo | 1 | 141 |
141 | Oklahoma State | -1.18492615 | BXII | 1 | 142 |
142 | Massachusetts-Lowell | -1.201346179 | AmE | -2 | 140 |
143 | Texas A&M-CC | -1.244551588 | SLC | – | 143 |
144 | Stanford | -1.264095576 | P12 | – | 144 |
145 | Troy | -1.311835637 | SunB | – | 145 |
146 | Wyoming | -1.331790471 | MWC | – | 146 |
147 | Stetson | -1.359679532 | ASUN | – | 147 |
148 | Stony Brook | -1.381207629 | CAA | 2 | 150 |
149 | Lipscomb | -1.400564925 | ASUN | – | 149 |
150 | California | -1.402231469 | P12 | 2 | 152 |
151 | Notre Dame | -1.411383552 | ACC | -3 | 148 |
152 | Western Kentucky | -1.431174472 | CUSA | 8 | 160 |
153 | Stephen F. Austin | -1.449924066 | WAC | 2 | 155 |
154 | Long Beach State | -1.456603682 | BW | -1 | 153 |
155 | Liberty | -1.458222509 | CUSA | 1 | 156 |
156 | Fort Wayne | -1.463869274 | HZN | -2 | 154 |
157 | Fairfield | -1.489124097 | MAAC | -6 | 151 |
158 | Louisiana | -1.495735056 | SunB | – | 158 |
159 | Oregon State | -1.502759114 | P12 | 2 | 161 |
160 | Tennessee-Martin | -1.548828308 | OVC | 2 | 162 |
161 | Merrimack | -1.578919927 | NEC | 2 | 163 |
162 | UC-Davis | -1.605784944 | BW | -5 | 157 |
163 | Norfolk State | -1.609868699 | MEAC | -4 | 159 |
164 | Nicholls State | -1.699467466 | SLC | 2 | 166 |
165 | Longwood | -1.705946309 | BSo | -1 | 164 |
166 | Ohio | -1.727529194 | MAC | 1 | 167 |
167 | Wright State | -1.754798186 | HZN | 1 | 168 |
168 | Hawai’i | -1.756191041 | BW | -3 | 165 |
169 | Southern | -1.779778592 | SWAC | 1 | 170 |
170 | Arkansas State | -1.780379111 | SunB | -1 | 169 |
171 | Michigan | -1.798480501 | BIG | 1 | 172 |
172 | East Tennessee State | -1.817437906 | SoCON | -1 | 171 |
173 | Cleveland State | -1.859755893 | HZN | – | 173 |
174 | Delaware | -1.865276512 | CAA | – | 174 |
175 | Monmouth | -1.868196389 | CAA | 1 | 176 |
176 | St. Thomas | -1.868447083 | SUM | -1 | 175 |
177 | Milwaukee | -2.007038325 | HZN | – | 177 |
178 | St. Peter’s | -2.029798667 | MAAC | 4 | 182 |
179 | West Virginia | -2.031296543 | BXII | -1 | 178 |
180 | Grambling | -2.064900418 | SWAC | 10 | 190 |
181 | Western Illinois | -2.066170843 | OVC | -2 | 179 |
182 | Northern Kentucky | -2.067578285 | HZN | -2 | 180 |
183 | Wofford | -2.112263916 | SoCON | -2 | 181 |
184 | Little Rock | -2.142200912 | OVC | -1 | 183 |
185 | San Diego | -2.161125813 | WCC | -1 | 184 |
186 | Central Michigan | -2.200392351 | MAC | 3 | 189 |
187 | Winthrop | -2.24678813 | BSo | -1 | 186 |
188 | Central Connecticut | -2.248424777 | NEC | -1 | 187 |
189 | Green Bay | -2.277878069 | HZN | -1 | 188 |
190 | Furman | -2.323432005 | SoCON | 2 | 192 |
191 | Northern Colorado | -2.324276926 | BSKY | 2 | 193 |
192 | Davidson | -2.3248981 | A10 | -7 | 185 |
193 | Bowling Green | -2.351303849 | MAC | 1 | 194 |
194 | Austin Peay | -2.353764464 | ASUN | 2 | 196 |
195 | Lamar | -2.358855562 | SLC | -4 | 191 |
196 | Harvard | -2.418697461 | IVY | 1 | 197 |
197 | Eastern Kentucky | -2.442401979 | ASUN | 1 | 198 |
198 | Marist | -2.52374124 | MAAC | 1 | 199 |
199 | UTEP | -2.582155146 | CUSA | -4 | 195 |
200 | Vanderbilt | -2.634594336 | SEC | 3 | 203 |
201 | Saint Louis | -2.639121835 | A10 | -1 | 200 |
202 | Cal State-Northridge | -2.653311781 | BW | -1 | 201 |
203 | Gardner-Webb | -2.653962552 | BSo | 1 | 204 |
204 | North Dakota | -2.724755581 | SUM | 1 | 205 |
205 | Illinois State | -2.747406997 | MVC | 1 | 206 |
206 | Utah Valley | -2.79664435 | WAC | 2 | 208 |
207 | Temple | -2.83652805 | AAC | 18 | 225 |
208 | Tulane | -2.88531891 | AAC | 1 | 209 |
209 | North Carolina Central | -2.891818372 | MEAC | -2 | 207 |
210 | Evansville | -2.916597002 | MVC | – | 210 |
211 | Tulsa | -2.922208288 | AAC | – | 211 |
212 | New Hampshire | -3.017633075 | AmE | – | 212 |
213 | Kent State | -3.02135278 | MAC | -11 | 202 |
214 | Wichita State | -3.074536351 | AAC | -1 | 213 |
215 | Tennessee State | -3.130206285 | OVC | -1 | 214 |
216 | La Salle | -3.130798038 | A10 | -1 | 215 |
217 | UC-Santa Barbara | -3.156699658 | BW | -1 | 216 |
218 | Howard | -3.302953917 | MEAC | 14 | 232 |
219 | Portland State | -3.30721608 | BSKY | -1 | 218 |
220 | Missouri | -3.347530825 | SEC | – | 220 |
221 | George Washington | -3.349178912 | A10 | -2 | 219 |
222 | East Carolina | -3.411512033 | AAC | -1 | 221 |
223 | Fresno State | -3.465780207 | MWC | -1 | 222 |
224 | Texas State | -3.545683476 | SunB | -1 | 223 |
225 | Georgetown | -3.58117291 | BE | -1 | 224 |
226 | Texas Southern | -3.593726344 | SWAC | -9 | 217 |
227 | Southern Miss | -3.620836552 | SunB | -1 | 226 |
228 | Murray State | -3.623107174 | MVC | -1 | 227 |
229 | Brown | -3.671049108 | IVY | 22 | 251 |
230 | Mercer | -3.698208591 | SoCON | -1 | 229 |
231 | Loyola Marymount | -3.702660496 | WCC | -3 | 228 |
232 | Montana State | -3.703731993 | BSKY | -2 | 230 |
233 | South Alabama | -3.717080053 | SunB | -2 | 231 |
234 | Pepperdine | -3.752331696 | WCC | -1 | 233 |
235 | Kansas City | -3.756653062 | WAC | -1 | 234 |
236 | Rhode Island | -3.76408222 | A10 | 1 | 237 |
237 | North Florida | -3.772438757 | ASUN | -1 | 236 |
238 | Radford | -3.77539294 | BSo | -3 | 235 |
239 | Fordham | -3.781431381 | A10 | -1 | 238 |
240 | Binghamton | -3.802093648 | AmE | -1 | 239 |
241 | UC-Riverside | -3.814449403 | BW | -1 | 240 |
242 | Rider | -3.835431777 | MAAC | – | 242 |
243 | Florida Gulf Coast | -3.854364796 | ASUN | -2 | 241 |
244 | California Baptist | -3.861431985 | WAC | 2 | 246 |
245 | Wagner | -3.873618735 | NEC | -1 | 244 |
246 | Denver | -3.876724335 | SUM | -3 | 243 |
247 | Columbia | -3.887085546 | IVY | 1 | 248 |
248 | SIU Edwardsville | -3.889102998 | OVC | -1 | 247 |
249 | Iona | -3.895106425 | MAAC | 1 | 250 |
250 | Abilene Christian | -3.898629419 | WAC | 2 | 252 |
251 | Bethune-Cookman | -3.911186266 | SWAC | -2 | 249 |
252 | Georgia State | -3.926070988 | SunB | 1 | 253 |
253 | Pennsylvania | -3.944259319 | IVY | 1 | 254 |
254 | Cal State-Fullerton | -3.953175757 | BW | -9 | 245 |
255 | Illinois-Chicago | -3.969401636 | MVC | – | 255 |
256 | Northern Illinois | -4.047594257 | MAC | 1 | 257 |
257 | Louisville | -4.065266237 | ACC | -1 | 256 |
258 | Maine | -4.121343913 | CAA | 2 | 260 |
259 | Air Force | -4.145667027 | MWC | -1 | 258 |
260 | Niagara | -4.157046991 | MAAC | -1 | 259 |
261 | Rice | -4.198707146 | AAC | 3 | 264 |
262 | North Alabama | -4.204749513 | ASUN | -1 | 261 |
263 | American | -4.228323317 | PAT | – | 263 |
264 | Miami-Ohio | -4.234011055 | MAC | 1 | 265 |
265 | Jacksonville | -4.248271224 | ASUN | -3 | 262 |
266 | North Dakota State | -4.26132777 | SUM | – | 266 |
267 | Sacred Heart | -4.262546689 | NEC | – | 267 |
268 | Alcorn State | -4.309317612 | SWAC | – | 268 |
269 | Marshall | -4.324200137 | SunB | – | 269 |
270 | Southeastern Louisiana | -4.4136241 | SLC | 1 | 271 |
271 | Chicago State | -4.467069694 | IND | 1 | 272 |
272 | San Jose State | -4.46818555 | MWC | -2 | 270 |
273 | Jacksonville State | -4.479668542 | CUSA | – | 273 |
274 | Queens | -4.49548967 | ASUN | – | 274 |
275 | Ball State | -4.517270236 | MAC | – | 275 |
276 | Lehigh | -4.549210747 | PAT | – | 276 |
277 | Portland | -4.557403445 | WCC | 2 | 279 |
278 | Jackson State | -4.557769802 | SWAC | -1 | 277 |
279 | Omaha | -4.559352201 | SUM | 1 | 280 |
280 | Canisius | -4.560752271 | MAAC | -2 | 278 |
281 | Kennesaw State | -4.622077913 | CUSA | 1 | 282 |
282 | Albany | -4.653142942 | AmE | 2 | 284 |
283 | New Mexico State | -4.689557519 | CUSA | – | 283 |
284 | Bakersfield | -4.699628407 | BW | -3 | 281 |
285 | Northeastern | -4.708411296 | CAA | – | 285 |
286 | South Carolina State | -4.708667348 | MEAC | – | 286 |
287 | Bucknell | -4.765673379 | PAT | – | 287 |
288 | Eastern Illinois | -4.794109029 | OVC | – | 288 |
289 | Middle Tennessee | -4.820304654 | CUSA | – | 289 |
290 | Delaware State | -4.893626569 | MEAC | – | 290 |
291 | Northern Arizona | -4.906487081 | BSKY | – | 291 |
292 | Utah Tech | -4.935325131 | WAC | 1 | 293 |
293 | Oral Roberts | -4.940191814 | SUM | -1 | 292 |
294 | Texas A&M-Commerce | -4.97035905 | SLC | – | 294 |
295 | Boston University | -4.994755064 | PAT | – | 295 |
296 | Idaho State | -5.002851372 | BSKY | 2 | 298 |
297 | Le Moyne | -5.008089619 | NEC | -1 | 296 |
298 | Mount St. Mary’s | -5.021749449 | MAAC | -1 | 297 |
299 | Alabama State | -5.13130392 | SWAC | 4 | 303 |
300 | Presbyterian | -5.136177106 | BSo | – | 300 |
301 | Elon | -5.137140932 | CAA | -2 | 299 |
302 | Texas-San Antonio | -5.150415855 | AAC | -1 | 301 |
303 | Fairleigh Dickinson | -5.156461168 | NEC | -1 | 302 |
304 | Arkansas-Pine Bluff | -5.201377042 | SWAC | 1 | 305 |
305 | Western Michigan | -5.234336057 | MAC | -1 | 304 |
306 | Citadel | -5.246672868 | SoCON | – | 306 |
307 | Eastern Michigan | -5.256508092 | MAC | – | 307 |
308 | Southern Utah | -5.290006725 | WAC | – | 308 |
309 | Campbell | -5.294024011 | CAA | – | 309 |
310 | Louisiana-Monroe | -5.30136019 | SunB | – | 310 |
311 | DePaul | -5.442038569 | BE | – | 311 |
312 | Charleston Southern | -5.446184437 | BSo | – | 312 |
313 | Navy | -5.627436373 | PAT | – | 313 |
314 | Georgia Southern | -5.691804132 | SunB | 1 | 315 |
315 | Florida International | -5.70526056 | CUSA | -1 | 314 |
316 | USC-Upstate | -5.75781663 | BSo | – | 316 |
317 | Lafayette | -5.783235319 | PAT | 1 | 318 |
318 | UMBC | -5.784321062 | AmE | 1 | 319 |
319 | Morgan State | -5.784435363 | MEAC | -2 | 317 |
320 | Valparaiso | -5.820006287 | MVC | – | 320 |
321 | Alabama A&M | -5.88561539 | SWAC | – | 321 |
322 | Prairie View | -5.950807598 | SWAC | – | 322 |
323 | South Dakota | -5.987591758 | SUM | – | 323 |
324 | Idaho | -6.02719041 | BSKY | – | 324 |
325 | Robert Morris | -6.038386453 | HZN | – | 325 |
326 | Old Dominion | -6.169927502 | SunB | – | 326 |
327 | Bellarmine | -6.207196253 | ASUN | – | 327 |
328 | Coastal Carolina | -6.229335871 | SunB | – | 328 |
329 | Tennessee Tech | -6.29639036 | OVC | – | 329 |
330 | Sacramento State | -6.313638481 | BSKY | – | 330 |
331 | New Orleans | -6.340422696 | SLC | – | 331 |
332 | Florida A&M | -6.396081674 | SWAC | – | 332 |
333 | Southern Indiana | -6.47482447 | OVC | – | 333 |
334 | William & Mary | -6.488150162 | CAA | – | 334 |
335 | NJIT | -6.520963633 | WAC | – | 335 |
336 | Holy Cross | -6.626210354 | PAT | 1 | 337 |
337 | Dartmouth | -6.636864128 | IVY | -1 | 336 |
338 | Maryland-Eastern Shore | -6.638540992 | MEAC | – | 338 |
339 | Texas-Rio Grande Valley | -6.669246123 | WAC | – | 339 |
340 | Manhattan | -6.710805283 | MAAC | 1 | 341 |
341 | Houston Baptist | -6.737626829 | SLC | 1 | 342 |
342 | North Carolina A&T | -6.738660646 | CAA | -2 | 340 |
343 | Central Arkansas | -6.748451742 | ASUN | – | 343 |
344 | Southeast Missouri State | -6.762007337 | OVC | – | 344 |
345 | Lindenwood | -6.765114239 | OVC | – | 345 |
346 | Army West Point | -6.824178909 | PAT | – | 346 |
347 | Northwestern State | -6.860887359 | SLC | – | 347 |
348 | St. Francis (PA) | -6.874308665 | NEC | – | 348 |
349 | Pacific | -6.888314265 | WCC | – | 349 |
350 | Incarnate Word | -7.070011955 | SLC | – | 350 |
351 | Loyola | -7.075842077 | PAT | – | 351 |
352 | Hampton | -7.138498804 | CAA | – | 352 |
353 | Long Island | -7.247141052 | NEC | – | 353 |
354 | IUPUI | -7.368570423 | HZN | – | 354 |
355 | Buffalo | -7.39246741 | MAC | – | 355 |
356 | Siena | -7.7317829 | MAAC | – | 356 |
357 | Stonehill | -7.918603141 | NEC | – | 357 |
358 | Cal Poly | -8.100172767 | BW | – | 358 |
359 | VMI | -8.232840548 | SoCON | – | 359 |
360 | Coppin State | -8.704939557 | MEAC | – | 360 |
361 | Mississippi Valley | -8.871639902 | SWAC | – | 361 |
362 | Detroit Mercy | -9.109414326 | HZN | – | 362 |
JNG Once Again at the TOP in 2023!
Accuracy of guessing the Committee (among the dozen final published rating systems on the bracketmatrix.com, 62 published on www.Massey.com on March 12, 2023 or used by the section committee itself, i.e. the KPI and RPI)
TOP TEN
1. JNG – 359 – 67 of 68 teams correct, 46 correct seed, 20 within a seed. (missed Nevada)
2. HaslamMetrics – 356– 66 of 68, 46 seeds correct, 20 w/n a seed (missed NC State & Nevada)
3. Bart Torvik T-Rank – 354 –67 of 68, 45 seeds correct, 18 w/n a seed (missed Nevada)
4. Logan – 348 – 66 of 68 teams correct, 45 seed correct, 15 w/n a seed (missed Pitt & Arizona State)
5. Team Rankings – 339 – 66 of 68, 41 seed correct, 18 w/n a seed (missed Illinois & Pitt)
6. INCC Stats – 331 – 66 of 68, 38 seeds correct, 19 w/n a seed (missed NC State & Pitt)
7. ESPN SOR – 329 – 65 of 68, 39 seeds correct, 17 w/n a seed (missed Utah St, Penn St, & Pitt)
8. Rothman – 323 – 65 of 68, 37 seeds correct, 17 w/n a seed (missed Pitt, Arizona St, & Nevada)
9. Wayward Trends Automative System Bracketology – 321 – 67 of 68, 31 seeds correct 27 w/n a seed (missed Pitt)
10. RAMS – 320 – 65 of 68, 37 seeds correct, 14 w/n a seed (missed Pitt, Arizona St, & Nevada))
Other Ratings of Note
14(tie). Massey – 308 – (missed Mississippi State, Pitt, Arizona St, & Pitt)
33(tie). Donchess Inference (DRatings) – 294 – Uses formula as a baseline for human influenced picks that calculated an impressive 372 on backetmatrix but the strict mathematical basketball formula was lower. (missed Mississippi St, Pitt, Arizona State, & Nevada)
39(tie). Sagarin – 292 – (missed Missouri, Boise St, Mississippi State, Pitt, Arizona St, & Nevada)
47(tie). KenPon – 287 – (missed Missouri, Northwestern, Penn State, NC State, Pitt, & Arizona St)
50(tie). NCAA NET – 285 –(missed Southern California, Penn State, Providence, Mississippi State, Pitt, & Arizona State)
58(tie). BPI – 280 – (missed Missouri, Southern California, Penn State, Utah State, Pitt, Nevada)
63. KPI – 272 – (missed Providence, Mississippi State, Pitt, and Arizona State)
70. Real Time RPI – 260 – (missed Missouri, Northwestern, Southern California, Penn State, Pitt, & Arizona State)
AP Poll Top 25 – 14 teams exact seed, 9 within 1
Coaches Poll Top 25 – 11 teams exact seed, 11 within 1
JNG CALCULATION METHODOLOGY
The baseline for strength used to be the RPI. The Committee, rightfully or wrongfully, has now switched to the “NET” formula as the primary baseline to determine what a “good win” or a “bad loss” is. To determine this distinction the JNG feeds off a weighted matrix that incorporates the “quadrant” system, influenced by fellow HoopsHD contributor Kyle Lamb, and adopted by the Committee in 2018.
Other factors such as high level wins away from home, wins against “the field,” conference leaders, overall records, out of conference SOS, and “recency bias” are all components that comprise the ratings. The JNG is “advanced” as it recalculates until stabilized. This is a crucial trait as one of the key criteria, “wins against the ‘at large’ field,” is reliant on the rating system repeatedly recalculating upon itself until the exact number that fits an “at large” field that matches up with potential conference champion spots to create a cut line. As mentioned earlier, one can see this critical junction in the ratings listed below with a gap in the list, usually in a spot between 45th and 50th in the ratings. One can use this cut line to easily eyeball a “last 4 in” (above) and “first 4 out” (below) the gap. A similar gap exists on the chart below for the NIT and CBI cutoffs, typically around 85-95 and 105-115 respectively.
HISTORY:
2015: First year of the JNG and showed immediate promise. When nobody thought UCLA should even get close to a bid, the ratings revealed that they actually were in the thick of the discussion (further proof the ratings are meant to mimic the Committee, NOT evaluate merit in a manner that should be adopted).
2016: JNG claims the top spot among ratings. The big surprise by the committee was the inclusion of the Tulsa Golden Hurricane and, once again, the JNG called it.
2017: The JNG was perfect and the #1 most accurate rating with a score that rivaled the top human bracketologists. It got all 68 teams correct and 59 of 68 teams within 4 spots of the official seed list released by the Committee. The biggest surprise was not an inclusion but the seeding of Vanderbilt. Many did not even have the Commodores in the field, but the Committee gave them a 9 seed and 33rd overall mimicking the JNG’s 9 seed and 34th overall.
2018: Second only to the KPI among the published ratings with 66 of 68 teams and 60 teams within 4 spots of the official seed list. The JNG not only had the slumping Sooners in the field but nailed their 10 seed on the nose.
2019: JNG reclaimed its top spot. 66 of 68 and 59 within 4 of the seed list (58 within 3 and 52 within 2!). St. John’s was such a surprise, only 2 ratings had them even in the field. The JNG was one of them. Likewise, Arizona St was only in 6 computer fields, and the JNG was one of them. Temple was only in the field in 9 ratings, and the JNG once again caught the outlier. It gets even better considering that Ohio St was one of the 2 “misses” and barely missed the JNG field to UNC-Greensboro. The Committee said UNC-G was one of the first teams out and nobody else human or computer had UNC-G in or near the field.
2020: Most similar to top bracketologists. As we all know there was no NCAA Tournament in 2020 so there was no absolute measuring stick. As a general guide though, the JNG was compared to the top human baracketologists on bracketmatrix.com (of a note, the JNG is one of the only a dozen formulas accepted as an entrant on the bracketmatrix.com). The JNG was easily the closest to the mean.
2021: JNG still in the top spot. The JNG tied for the top spot with well-respected stat guru Bart Torvik’s T-Rank. While most bracketologists on the bracketmatrix.com missed the inclusion of Wichita St, the JNG nailed the selection and seed perfectly. The only miss was the JNG’s 2nd team out (Utah St).
2022: JNG makes giant leap in score. Not only did the JNG keep its spot as top of class among computer projections, but it also beat the majority of human bracketologists on bracketmatrix.com commanding an impressive 352 score. It was the only computer in the entire world to have Rutgers in its field. Only 40% of all professional human bracketologists had the Scarlet Knights but the JNG had them in.
2023: JNG on top with highest all time score. The JNG made it 7 out of 8 years as the top computer ratings guessing the Committee. The JNG’s improvement led to a score of 359. While most human bracketologists did a simple swap for Princeton’s upset of Yale in the Ivy, the JNG recognized that the Tigers were actually a 15 seed and the Committee agreed. Compared to other computer programs, the JNG did not punish the ACC at the expense of the MWC, correctly identifying the true traits the Committee sees in a resume, not just efficiency ratings, which can be gamed by preseason scheduling. As a result, correctly placed every ACC school and every MWC school for seeding purposes.
We will try to update the ratings daily in the morning during the season so you can see the ebb and flow of where teams land.