Most who follow us are diehard college hoops fans, so I’m going to assume that if you’re reading this that you already know. The NCAA will, almost assuredly, expand the tournament field to 76 teams. The announcement will likely come some time in May, and it will go into effect immediately for next season.
The response from the fans has been about 99% viscerally bad. The 1% where that isn’t the case is mostly among the NCAA itself. They are literally the only ones who think this is a good idea. The NCAA has a long history of doing stupid things, and over the last five years or so they’ve outdone themselves when it comes to stupid decisions, stupid actions, and stupid inactions. So, should we really be surprised that they are about to do something else that’s really stupid, and that everyone thinks is stupid, and that no one really wants?? Of course not!!
Why is it stupid to expand the NCAA Tournament?? Most of you reading this already know the answer to that. You don’t need me to explain it to you. But I know that the NCAA Selection Committee Members and Staffers sometimes venture over here, so I’m going to try my best to explain a few things to them….
-The first thing I’d like to point out is that when it comes to sports and entertainment, your audience tends to know what they like. If your audience says they like something, you should believe them! If your audience says they don’t like something, you should believe them as well! They CLEARLY DO NOT LIKE THIS!! You need to realize that you are very reliant on your audience! They are the people who watch the games and buy the tickets. The reason the NCAA Tournament is so popular is because people are watching. And…they DO NOT LIKE THIS!! Hopefully that will give you SOME sort of pause as to what the ratings and interest will be in these extra games that are being added.
-College basketball has something (at least up until now) that is very under-appreciated by the NCAA itself. It’s also something that almost no other major sport in the United States has. A very compelling four-and-a-half month regular season. I know this because I write up all the meaningful games every day. No other sport provides that kind of content with those kinds of storylines and those kinds of stakes. When you watch games as early as November, you know you’re watching important games that will have a great impact on the NCAA Tournament selection and seeding process. Expanding the field to 76 means teams don’t have to play as hard of an OOC schedule to get inside the bubble. It also means the P4 teams don’t have to perform as well in league play in order to make the field. If the committee is going to start routinely taking P4 teams that only manage a 6-12 or 7-13 record in conference play, which would be the case in this new format, then how compelling is that? The urgency that exists now would be gone, and the general interest in those games would also be gone. When was the last time you saw a really important regular season MLB or NBA game where teams that are barely .500 are able to make the playoffs?? You haven’t. College basketball has that urgency all season long! Or…at least it did.
-The Round of. 64 is AMAZING!! I don’t think this is something that was done by design because the NCAA has proven time after time after time that they just aren’t smart enough to design something like that, but it somehow happened by accident. There are 32 games. Roughly 24 or 25 of those 32 games feature a really good non-power team against a really good power team or brand name team. Fans LOVE this!! They’d MUCH rather see this type of game in the 1st round of the NCAA Tournament that see the kinds of games that we already see in the pre-quarterfinal rounds of the power conference tournaments. TRUST ME ON THIS!! If the power conference pre-quarterfinal round tournament games are what people wanted to watch, they’d…yunno…watch them. But they don’t. Even if it is being played on an LED video glass floor. Check the ratings if you don’t believe me. Check the attendance in the buildings as well. While expanding the field may mean more teams, it means less of the types of games that people really enjoy watching. This past year, people don’t want to watch a game like Cal v Oklahoma. They’d much rather see High Point, or Northern Iowa, or McNeese, or any number of high caliber non-power schools get their shot. That’s what we have in abundance right now, and that’s why people love the first weekend of the tournament.
-Doing this makes the Under the Radar conferences a smaller part of the NCAA Tournament. Now I know none of the powers that be really care about this, but maybe they should for this reason. The NCAA Tournament as an event is a lot like Olympic Gymnastics. By that I mean how much the tournament transcends the actual sport itself. There are people who love watching it, and who get very excited for it, but who aren’t college basketball fans throughout the year. I love the Olympics. I have no idea who the best gymnast in Honduras is. But, if I turned on the Olympics and it was reported that the best gymnast in Honduras was not invited because the “bigger” countries wanted more spots for themselves, my response would naturally be “Well, THAT sucks!” And I’d be right. It would suck. A lot of the NCAA Tournament audience would feel the same. Just keep that in mind.
-Last, but not least, I’m going to circle back to the audience again. People are on occasion collectively stupid, but not when it comes to the things that they collectively like. This insinuation that expanding the NCAA Tournament is a good thing because it opens up more chances to mid-majors is COMPLETE nonsense, and EVERYBODY knows it. You’re insulting thier intelligence (and yours) when you say that. We all know that of the 8 teams being added, a minimum of 7 (and usually all 8) will go to power programs and not to mid-majors.
But…
I’m going to pretend for a second that you’re actually being honest when you say that you think this is how it will play out. I’m also going to say something now that may surprise you. I would actually advocate for and support expanding the tournament to 80 teams (four more than you have) with the following very important stipulation. Every conference is capped at half its membership. No exceptions. It doesn’t necessarily mean a team has to go .500 in conference. We see teams that end up lower in the standings but who clearly have a better profile all the time. They just can’t select more than half the teams.
-The ACC and B1G get no more than 9
-The SEC and Big 12 get no more than 8
-The Big East gets no more than 5
-The Ohio Valley Conference gets no more than 4. Max! No matter how good the league is they only get 4!
And, of course, all 32 conference keep their AQ status to ensure that every conference gets at least one team.
If you do the math, that’s a maximum 39 out of 80 bids that go to the P4/Big East. That’s still nearly half the field for just 5 of the 32 conferences if each conference is able to earn their maximum number of bids. That seems like a reasonable portion, don’t you think? With 27 additional AQs, that’s 66 of the 80 teams. That leaves 14 more bids for the other 27 conferences. That averages out to about one bid for every two conferences. The P4/BE get up to half their teams. Everyone else gets (on average) gets one-and-a-half teams. That’s still hugely proportionally in the favor of the power programs, but it at least gives a fair shot for the good non-power programs to attain a bid.
Why should the NCAA this?? Well…it does expand the tournament, which is something the NCAA is hellbent on doing, presumably because they think more NCAA Tournament games will mean more money from the TV contracts.
Why should the P4 support this? While there would potentially be fewer power conference teams in the NCAA Tournament, and that would for one week give them a spotlight that isn’t quite as big, it would probably also brighten the spotlight during November, December, January, and February, and certainly during the conference tournament as teams are battling it out for spots. The intrigue and urgency that would create would increase your audience for four months!! That’s better than having it only sort of increased for one week.
Will the NCAA do this?? Will they agree to this?? I’m guessing not. And we already know that. When someone is absolutely determined to do something stupid, they’re oftentimes too stupid to be dissuaded.
