Monday Morning Bracketology – February 24

It is time for some more Monday Morning Bracketology.  Here is my projected bracket through games of February 23, plus some notes on this week’s field.  Please note that I am predicting what the committee will do as of today:

WEST REGION
San Diego
(1) Arizona vs (16) Davidson
(8) George Washington vs (9) Baylor

Spokane
(5) San Diego State vs (12) BYU
(4) Louisville vs (13) Belmont

Orlando
(6) Massachusetts vs (11) Minnesota/Missouri
(3) Virginia vs (14) Mercer

Buffalo
(7) Stanford vs (10) Gonzaga
(2) Villanova vs (15) Boston University

EAST REGION
St. Louis
(1) Kansas vs (16) Robert Morris/Southern
(8) California vs (9) SMU

San Diego
(5) Kentucky vs (12) Green Bay
(4) Saint Louis vs (13) Stephen F. Austin

Raleigh
(6) North Carolina vs (11) St. Joseph’s
(3) Michigan State vs (14) Iona

Buffalo
(7) Connecticut vs (10) Nebraska
(2) Syracuse vs (15) North Carolina Central

SOUTH REGION
Orlando
(1) Florida vs (16) Vermont
(8) VCU vs (9) Arizona State

Spokane
(5) Iowa vs (12) Toledo
(4) Cincinnati vs (13) North Dakota State

San Antonio
(6) Texas vs (11) Louisiana Tech
(3) Wisconsin vs (14) New Mexico State

Raleigh
(7) New Mexico vs (10) Pittsburgh
(2) Duke vs (15) Georgia State

MIDWEST REGION
St. Louis
(1) Wichita State vs (16) Weber State/VMI
(8) Memphis vs (9) Kansas State

San Antonio
(5) Ohio State vs (12) Providence/Florida State
(4) Iowa State vs (13) Harvard

Milwaukee
(6) UCLA vs (11) Dayton
(3) Michigan vs (14) UC-Santa Barbara

Milwaukee
(7) Oklahoma vs (10) Colorado
(2) Creighton vs (15) Towson

National Semifinals: West vs East, South vs Midwest

Last four in: Minnesota, Providence, Missouri, Florida State
First four out: Georgetown, Oklahoma State, West Virginia, Arkansas
Others considered: Richmond, Clemson, St. John’s, Marquette, Xavier, Middle Tennessee, Southern Miss, Oregon, Utah, Tennessee

A few notes about this week’s bracket:
The Big Ten took the lead this week with 7 teams in the field, followed by the Big 12, Pac-12, ACC and A-10 all with 6 teams each.  The American has 5 teams in, the Big East and SEC have 3 each, and the Mountain West and West Coast each had 2.

Once again some fun matchups showed up this week, all unintentionally.  In the West, San Diego State vs BYU is an old Mountain West rivalry.  In the East, Michigan State got kind of screwed, having a to potentially play North Carolina in Raleigh in the Round of 32.  We also have a potential round of 32 “Big East” matchup between UConn and Syracuse.  Finally in the Midwest, Wichita State has a potential Round of 32 game against Kansas State (in St. Louis), and if seeds hold up, could play Creighton in the Regional Final.

Syracuse’s tough week knocked them from the #1 team overall last week all the way down to the 2 line, opening a spot for Kansas to move back into the top line.  Pitt suffered a tough home loss to Florida State Sunday night that had two effects.  First the Panthers are sliding down the bracket and are now barely holding on at a 10 seed.  They simply do not have the quality wins needed to be called safely in the field.  The win was also huge for Florida State, and when push came to shove I ended up liking the Seminoles’ overall profile just slightly better than the rest of the Bubble, giving them my final at-large spot.

Dayton and St. Joe’s have been two of the hotter teams in the country among bubble teams, and as a result both teams not only made this week’s field, but even avoided the First Four.  UMass also had a great week in the A-10 winning at George Washington and at home against VCU.  The Minutemen are solidly on the 6 line and have a chance to move higher if they keep winning.

The Big East took the hardest hit this week, as it appears this league could have anywhere from 2-7 teams in the field still.  Villanova and Creighton are solid on the 2 line, but the only other team in the field is Providence. and they are in the First Four.  Georgetown was my very last team left out, while St. John’s, Marquette and Xavier are all still on the board.  None of these teams seems to want to assert itself and grab a bid, and in fact Xavier is heading in the wrong direction entirely at the moment.

In the SEC, Missouri barely hung on to a spot in the field, though they have no margin for error left.  Arkansas (one of my first four out) has been playing itself back into contention and with a trip to Kentucky looming this week, could get a true signature win.  Tennessee, on the other hand, fell right out of my field and has a ton of work to do if they want to get back in.

Another new team to the field this week is BYU.  While they have four bad losses, they have offset them with wins away from home against Stanford and Texas teams that are single digit seeds, and picked up a solid home win this week over Gonzaga.  The Cougars must win their final regular season game next weekend, at dangerous San Diego, and pick up at least one if not two wins in the WCC tourney still.  BYU’s inclusion required me to shift one of the First Four games up to the 11 line and them down to the 12 in order to make certain they did not play a game on a Sunday.

Finally, among the single bid conferences, Delaware has lost 2 of 3 games prompting me to make the change and call Towson as the Colonial champion, especially with the conference tournament in their backyards in Baltimore this year.  VMI is my new pick in the crazy race for the Big South as Coastal Carolina suffered two losses this week.  Finally, Southern is still in my field and will remain my pick in the SWAC until their fight to regain eligibility before the start of conference tournament play is done.  In fact, I now like their resume better than both Weber State and VMI, and have them ranked #66 overall.