If you have no done so already, make sure you check out our Preseason Bracketology Podcast here: https://hoopshd.com/2014/11/02/preseason-bracketology-podcast/
With thirteen members and only the top eight teams allowed into the conference tournament, it would appear that the Southland, in theory, would be eliminating five teams during its conference regular season, the most of any conference that has a postseason tournament. However, this season at least, those five eliminations have all already occurred. Abilene Christian and Incarnate Word are both ineligible for the conference and NCAA tournaments as second year transitional teams. Central Arkansas, Houston Baptist and Lamar have all run afoul of the APR rules and are banned from postseason play this year. The remaining eight teams will play in the conference tournament for a shot at the league’s automatic bid — but that may just be a formality as well given that Stephen F. Austin returns six of its top nine players, meaning that they probably will not miss a step after going 18-0 in conference play, winning the Southland tournament and going on to upset VCU in the Round of 64 last year.
To the extent that anyone is going to challenge SFA, the two most likely candidates are the two teams that made postseason appearances in the CIT last year, Sam Houston State and Texas A&M-Corpus Christi. The Bearkats return four starters and get DeMarcus Gatlin back after he had to take a medical redshirt with a knee injury last season. The Islanders are led by John Jordan and should once again be one of the best defensive teams in the conference.
One team that Stephen F. Austin is not going to have to worry about this year is Oral Roberts. After spending only two seasons in the Southland, the Golden Eagles chose to leave the conference and return to their prior home in the Summit League. While the reason for the move to the Southland was to cut down on travel costs and grow more regional rivalries, ORU apparently felt that the Southland’s recent expansion combined with its focus on football (a sport that Oral Roberts does not sponsor), made the Southland less attractive than it had originally been. Of course, ORU had a lot more success in the Summit League as well, capturing six titles, including three straight from 2006-08, as opposed to third place and sixth place finishes in their two runs through the Southland.
Predicted Order of Finish:
1. Stephen F. Austin: Jacob Parker, Thomas Walkup and the majority of the bench returns from last season’s team. The Lumberjacks should not miss a step off of last year’s success.
2. Sam Houston State: Jabari Peters, Kaheem Ransom, and getting Gatlin back from his injury should make the Bearkats the most likely to challenge Stephen F. Austin this year.
3. Texas A&M-Corpus Christi: With Jordan leading the way, there is no reason why the Islanders will not be competitive again this season.
4. Northwestern State: Jalan West and Zikiteran Woodley are back for the Demons and their fast-paced, high-scoring team, but losing three starters from last season’s squad may be too much.
5. Incarnate Word*: The Cardinals went 9-5 in Southland play last season despite it being only their first competing at the Division I level. With three of their top four scorers back, including Denzel Livingston and his 20.3 points per game, there is no reason they will not be right up there in the regular season standings again this year.
6. Southeastern Louisiana: JaMichael Hawkins and Southern Mississippi transfer Cedric Jenkins will lead this team, but the talent level does not appear to be there to compete for the conference’s top spots.
7. McNeese State: Kevin Hardy and Desharick Guidry are good enough to keep the Cowboys in games, but this is still a 20 loss team that lost its top scorer from last season.
8. New Orleans: The rebuild of the Privateers program is still ongoing following their decision not to drop down to Division II or III. While the team is starting to build young talent, they are probably yet strong enough to avoid a lower division finish.
9. Nicholls State: With their top two players from last year gone, it could be a long season for the Colonels. The good news is that no matter how badly they struggle, they are guaranteed a berth in the Southland tournament.
10. Abilene Christian*: The Wildcats return all five starters from last season, but depth could be an issue in their second season at the D1 level.
11. Lamar*: The long rebuild from the Pat Knight era is just beginning, but Davontae Bailey is a top recruit for Tic Price in his first full season at the helm.
12. Houston Baptist*: It is tough to be worse than the Huskies were last season at 6-25 overall, but unfortunately there is a chance they could be.
13. Central Arkansas*: Russ Pennell takes over the program, but every key player from last season’s 21 loss squad is gone. This could be a very long season for the Bears.
* Incarnate Word and Abilene Christian are ineligible for the Southland and NCAA tournaments as second year transitional teams. Lamar, Houston Baptist and Central Arkansas are ineligible for postseason play due to low APR scores.