Of the 32 conferences in Division I, the SWAC has been hit the hardest by the Academic Progress Rate rules, having had multiple teams ineligible for postseason play each of the last few years. Last season was perhaps the roughest with Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Grambling and Mississippi Valley State all ruled ineligible for postseason play, and then having Southern University added to the list late in the season due to irregularities in the data they had supplied to the NCAA. With four out of ten teams ineligible, the SWAC actually ended up revising their conference tournament format to allow all ten teams to play, giving their automatic bid to the eligible team that advanced the furthest (which ended up being tournament champion Texas Southern).
This season things are a lot different in the SWAC. While Southern is still ineligible as they try to resolve issues that basically made all of the school’s academic data unusable (and you can read into that whatever you desire), only Alabama State joins them in being ineligible under the APR. With the Southland having three teams on the postseason ban list, the SWAC has clearly moved up out of the Division I APR basement, hopefully for good.
Alabama State’s place on the ban list could not have come with worse timing, as the Hornets appear to be the runaway leader, at least on paper, in the race for the conference title. Jamel Waters is one of the top players in the SWAC and he leads a team with all five starters returning. The Hornets also return the majority of their bench from a team that won 19 games last season and made an appearance in the CIT. After Alabama State, the SWAC appears to be wide open, with Alcorn State, Arkansas-Pine Bluff, Texas Southern and Prairie View A&M all looking like they will be competitive in league play. Alcorn State is our pick as the second best and thus the automatic bid winner. Grambling State also continues its rebuild and has a shot to move out of the conference basement under new head coach Shawn Walker.
Predicted Order of Finish:
1. Alabama State*: Waters stars for this deep veteran team that appears to be a level above everyone else in the conference.
2. Alcorn State: LeAntwan Luckett, Octavius Brown and Marquis Vance all return for an experienced team that looks to be the best of the rest after Alabama State.
3. Arkansas-Pine Bluff: The backcourt combination of Marcel Mosley and Tevin Hammond will be dangerous enough for the Golden Lions to compete with almost anyone in this conference.
4. Texas Southern: With four starters, including star Aaric Murray, gone, the Tigers will need Madarious Gibbs and Jose Rodriguez to step up if they want to be near the top of the league standings.
5. Prairie View A&M: Montrael Scott and John Brisco lead an experienced backcourt that should help the Panthers improve from last season’s 23 losses, but they will need to find some answers down low to challenge for anything higher than this.
6. Southern*: The defending regular season champions lost four starters, but should still have a solid backcourt with Tre’Lun Banks and Tre Lynch.
7. Jackson State: The Tigers lose their top two scorers from last season, though they should still be among the better defensive teams in the conference. Finding some offense will be the key to moving up in the standings.
8. Grambling State: The loss of Antwan Scott will hurt, but A’Torri Shore looks poised to lead this team which has a good chance to avoid the SWAC basement.
9. Mississippi Valley State: The Delta Devils lose four starters from a 23 loss team that finished in 9th place in the SWAC. That is a recipe for a very long season.
10. Alabama A&M: The Bulldogs lose four starters as well, and no returning player averaged more than 3.4 points per game last season. Avoiding the conference basement may be the ceiling this year.
* Alabama State is ineligible for postseason play due to low APR scores. Southern is ineligible for postseason play due to ongoing issues surrounding the APR data that was submitted to the NCAA.