The Sun Belt conference was dominated by Georgia State last season. The Panthers went 17-1 in conference and then blew out Arkansas State in the Sun Belt tournament semifinals. This is why it was almost a complete shock when Louisiana-Lafayette upset the Panthers in overtime in the tournament final and stole the NCAA bid. Georgia State did get the consolation prize of an NIT appearance, but a very weak non-conference schedule with a handful of bad losses kept them from any serious at-large bid consideration.
This season, Georgia State looks like they will have to dominate in conference play and take the tournament title to dance as well, as the only real non-conference test is a game against Iowa State. However, the pieces are certainly there for the Panthers as they return stars R.J. Hunter and Ryan Harrow and add Louisville transfer Kevin Ware (who suffered a horrifying injury while playing for the Cardinals during the 2013 NCAA tournament). Assuming Ware is healthy, this team has all the pieces to once again dominate the conference.
The Sun Belt does have a membership change this year as Western Kentucky has left to join Conference USA while Appalachian State and Georgia Southern both move in from the Southern Conference. Appalachian State looks like it will suffer a long first season in the Sun Belt, especially with an APR postseason ban to deal with, but Georgia Southern is a team that we are picking as a surprise contender. Arkansas-Little Rock and defending tournament champion Louisiana-Lafayette should both figure in the race as well . . . at least the race for second place.
Predicted Order of Finish:
1. Georgia State: Ware suffered an injury during practice, but assuming he will not miss any significant time, the Panthers seem poised to dominate the conference again. With a weak non-conference slate, they have very little margin for error if an at-large bid is needed.
2. Arkansas-Little Rock: Josh Hagins and James White will lead a deep, experienced team with the best shot at giving Georgia State a run for its money.
3. Georgia Southern: Jelani Hewitt and Eric Ferguson will score points, and if the strong recruiting class is ready to contribute, the Eagles could be right in contention.
4. Louisiana-Lafayette: Shawn Long is one of the top forwards in the conference, but losing three starters from last year’s NCAA tournament team will make a return trip difficult this season.
5. Texas-Arlington: Lonnie McClanahan will need to lead this team, but the loss of last year’s top two scorers will make challenging for the top of the conference difficult.
6. Troy: While Kevin Thomas is the only returning starter, head coach Phil Cunningham has added a lot of new faces that could have the Trojans surprising people once they begin meshing together as a team.
7. Louisiana-Monroe: Tylor Ongwae is a legitimate threat every night, but the rest of the pieces do not appear to be here.
8. Arkansas State: With all five starters gone, this looks like a rebuilding year in Jonesboro, and just finishing in the top 8 and qualifying for the Sun Belt tournament may be the goal.
9. Appalachian State*: The good news is that all five starters are returning from last year’s squad. The bad news is that it was a team that lost 21 times, and now has to deal with a one year postseason ban.
10. Texas State: It will be tough for Danny Kaspar’s second season at the helm to be worse than his first, but the Bobcats are still being rebuilt and this should be another long season.
11. South Alabama: With the top three scorers gone from a team that lost 20 games, this looks like another long season in Mobile.
* Appalachian State is ineligible for postseason play due to low APR scores.