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Below is my most recent Bracket Projections, which are my own projections and not the consensus of everyone here at Hoops HD. Just below the bracket is Chad Sherwood’s commentary. He will agree with some things, and everything he agrees with will be correct. He will disagree with other things, which is fine, but everything he disagrees with will ultimately be incorrect.
-Bracket and Notes reflect all games played through March 1st.
NOTES
-Xavier and BYU had to switch seed lines to accommodate the bracketing rule of BYU not playing on Sundays.
-Teams that were next in line are Texas A&M, Tulsa, Pittsburgh, Illinois, Texas, UCLA, Minnesota, Stanford, Old Dominion, UConn
CHAD’S NOTES ON DAVID’S BRACKET
– I know my job here is to rip David’s bracket apart but all in all, I think he did a pretty good job, especially at the top. I cannot disagree with any of his top 8 seed lines (top 32 teams) as I would have all of them at least within one seed line of where he placed them.
– I do have several major disagreements with David once we get to the bottom half of the bracket, starting with his inclusion of Boise State on the 9 line. I agree that they belong on the field after the huge win at San Diego State, but I do not see them as a single digit seed. This team is still carrying too many bad losses, including that awful game at Fresno State, a home game against Utah State and a neutral court loss to Loyola-Chicago.
– I also do not understand David’s dislike for this Indiana profile. He has them among the First Four, while I would probably have them on the 8 or 9 line (honestly, I would just flip them and Boise in the bracket and it would make sense to me). Indiana only has one somewhat bad loss (this past week at Northwestern) offset by five top 50 wins (including a neutral court win over Butler) plus a road win over a bubble-caliber Illinois team and a home win over Minnesota which was also considered by David. That profile is way better, in my opinion, than any team on David’s 10, 11 or 12 line.
– I also could not more strongly disagree with David’s inclusion of BYU as a 10 seed (moved down to 11 for bracketing purposes). This is a case by David, and by the majority of the national media at the same time, of completely overvaluing a single win just because it happened in the past few days. BYU still has way too many ugly warts on their resume, including three losses right around the RPI 150 line (twice to Pepperdine and at San Diego). They have exactly one win against any team in the field and only one more win (and a home one to boot) against anyone under consideration (Stanford). They only have one top 100 win away from home as well. I can see the argument for BYU, and if they make it to the WCC finals and lose there to the Zags, I will make it for their inclusion as well, but they are not so far in as to avoid the First Four yet. They really need a neutral court win over St. Mary’s in the WCC Semifinals to help their resume, which means they need to not only win their own quarterfinal, but root for the Gaels to knock off Portland.
– I also do not agree on the selection of Miami. Just as with BYU, Miami really only has one win of note, albeit a huge one at Duke. The bottom of their resume is even uglier than BYU’s with four sub-100 losses, two of which came at home. They are also sitting on 11 losses overall, worse than BYU again. The only thing they have slightly better than BYU is wins against bubble teams, with two of them (NC State and Illinois at home), rather than just one by the Cougars. Needless to say, I do not feel the ‘canes are in right now. The good news for Miami is they will have more chances than BYU to add to their resume, starting this week at Pittsburgh.
– Illinois is the first of two teams on David’s OUT list that I would have had in. The Illini only have one bad loss (at Nebraska) while they have four wins against teams in the field or on the bubble. Two of those wins are a home win over a protected seed (Maryland) and a huge neutral court win over a team that has a chance to start sniffing the 2 line (Baylor). They also have a solid road win over Michigan State, who is closer to being a lock than being out.
– The other team that I would put in right now is a bit of a toss-up, but I would lean to the likes of Texas, Tulsa or UCLA. All three profiles have tons of ugliness on them, but I believe that they are all better than Miami at the moment and perhaps better than BYU as well. Texas does not have the bad losses, but just has too many of them. Tulsa is lacking in quality wins and has a very ugly loss to a non-D1 team. UCLA is also sitting on a ton of losses and a lack of road wins, though their win at Stanford does help. I could even see BYU as the last team in — my bigger problem with David is how high he had them rated, not his inclusion of them. In the end, I would probably go with Texas for now, though that will change when they likely lose to Baylor tonight.
– One other team that I think merits being Under Consideration that David did not even look at is Kansas State. I have been outspoken for years now in my dislike for Bruce Weber, but I cannot ignore a resume with 7 top 50 wins, including a season sweep of Oklahoma and home wins over Baylor, Kansas and Iowa State. That is 5 wins over protected seeds! When you add in a home win over Oklahoma State, and neutral court wins over bubble teams Texas A&M and Purdue, you simply cannot overlook them. I know that 15 losses, including 5 sub-100 losses is bad. But when you go 5-6 against the top 25 including a true road win, you get my attention. And honestly, if you are going to include BYU and Gonzaga based on one great win, how can you ignore Kansas State who has five of them? The Wildcats have one regular season game left, at Texas on March 7. If they win that and get at least one Big 12 tournament win, they may get in the field despite 16 losses!
– I do not have too many complaints about the single-bid conferences though I would have included Sacramento State instead of Eastern Washington in the Big Sky. The Hornets are a game up in the conference standings and will likely be hosting the Big Sky tournament. Eastern Washington has been falling apart the past few weeks. Other than that, while I have some minor disagreements, I do not have any major ones.