Bracket Projections: December 28th

-For Chad Sherwood’s Under the Radar Game of the Day, as well as a rundown of all of the rest of today’s action – CLICK HERE

NOTES ON THE BRACKET

-The bracket reflects all games played through December 27th.  It is a CHECKPOINT based on CURRENT MERIT, and not a forecast of what we think the bracket will look like in March.  Furthermore, I put far more emphasis on a team’s profile than I did on how good I think the team actually is.

-Projected conference champions are noted with an asterisk (*)

-Chad Sherwood and John Stalica will probably have some comments as well that will be posted below the bracket.  If they agree with me, then they are correct.  If they disagree with me, then they are wrong!!  I know how they think, and they’re going to say things that they’re wrong about

-Louisville is not in the field, and that is not an oversight.  To date, Louisville has almost beaten two really good teams on the road.  They’ve also failed to actually beat anyone that’s likely to make the NIT.  I feel that Louisville is a very good team that has a much better chance of ending up as a protected seed than they do missing the field.  But, until they actually beat someone that’s likely to make the NIT, I cannot justify putting them in.  Remember, this is a checkpoint.

-Monmouth is on the #4 line, and that is also not an oversight.  Monmouth’s profile is fantastically good.  They’ve won at UCLA (their only home loss), against USC on a neutral floor (who has just two losses), against Notre Dame on a neutral floor (who’s in the field), at Georgetown, at Rutgers, and at Cornell (who isn’t great, but it’s still their only home loss).  They’ve won six true road games, and eight games away from home.  No one else has anywhere close to that many wins away from home at this point.  I don’t think they’ll end up on the #4 line.  In fact, I think Louisville has a better team and will end up with a better seed once they start beating quality teams.  But, as of now, Monmouth is being grossly undervalued.  Any power conference team who had eight wins away from home on the season, much less in the first half of the season, will make the field with a very good seed.  So, why not Monmouth??

-Maryland’s seed may look a little poor.  I think their team is better than that, but am not sold on their paper at this point.

-I really like this Colorado team and think they’ll be much further inside the bubble than that once it’s all said and done.

-A lot of teams have scattershot profiles right now, but Northern Iowa’s is extremely scattershot.  I’m still not sure exactly what to do with them.  They have two incredible wins against teams that will likely end up on the #3 line or better, but they have some questionable losses as well.  I have them on the #8 line, but could see them being seeded much better, or much worse.

OTHERS CONSIDERED: Pittsburgh, California, Florida State, Louisville, Washington, Baylor, Ohio State, Wichita State, Ole Miss, Evansville, Wisconsin, Northwestern, Tulsa, Boise State, Oregon State, Saint Joseph’s, William & Mary, Georgia, NC State, Saint Mary’s, Davidson, Hawaii

COMMENTS FROM CHAD

– Although I should forgive this entire bracket as Griggs has finally joined the Texas Tech bandwagon, I have to make a few comments anyhow.

– The biggest complaint I have is Northern Iowa.  yes they have two HUGE wins.  But they have given those and more back with losses 4 losses to teams that are not in this field and a 5th to a team barely in (Richmond).  I would have them on the 12 line if you are going to call them the auto-bid from the MVC or out if you were to give that to Wichita or Evansville.

– I will leave the Louisville argument to John S., but I think that Northwestern belongs in this field.  I know they don’t have any great wins, but 12-1 cannot be ignored.  If you are going to join the Texas Tech bandwagon, you have to join the Northwestern one too.

– Finally, I don’t understand Colorado.  David loves them but I think that is just because he enjoys going shopping in the state’s medicinal stores.  The team itself has beaten no one of note yet.  They will get their chances in conference play, but I really don’t see it happening.  I guess in the end, we are nitpicking between a bunch of teams that we just don’t know enough about yet because of their lousy non-conference schedules.  But I personally believe more in Northwestern and Louisville than I do Colorado and some others.

COMMENTS FROM JOHN

– Without looking into Chad’s comments, I will start off by talking about the Louisville Cardinals. If they’re being punished by the puppet for not winning any notable games, why is Cincinnati getting a 5 seed? I know the puppet loves Tim Miles and Nebraska, but Cincy’s only notable wins came against George Washington in Brooklyn and VCU on the road. Right now, VCU is a sub-NIT team. The Bearcats lost two tough ones at home against Butler and Iowa State; they should have won one of those two to continue to justify a seed just outside of the protected zone.

– Miami also jumps out as a surprise on the 1-line, but outside of stubbing their toes against Northeastern, they’ve also had a very impressive start to the year with sizable wins against Utah and Butler in Puerto Rico. If we’re looking at ACC teams as a possible #1 seed, it would be easy to say that Virginia has a less egregious loss at George Washington, but their best wins (Villanova, Cal, at Ohio State) don’t match what the Canes have pulled off so far. I suspect this was part of David’s rationale for having the U instead of the Hoos or North Carolina at the top.

– I can even agree that Monmouth deserves extra credit for 6 true road wins (UCLA, Drexel, Niagara, Georgetown, Rutgers and Cornell) plus neutral-court wins over Notre Dame and USC. UCLA is the only first-ballot NCAA team out of that group; I’m not sure if USC or Notre Dame will remain NCAA Tournament-caliber teams later on in the season. But again, this is simply the calendar year-end checkpoint. One loss to Canisius won’t erase that, but if they lose to someone not named Iona or Siena in the MAAC, that’s going to be problematic.

– My only other objection would be placing Northern Iowa on the 8 line; they’ve had a tough schedule but they’ve lost too many games against sub-NCAA teams to justify such a seed. Yes, wins over UNC and Iowa State in Des Moines carry some weight, but not enough to offset losses against Colorado State, at New Mexico, at Hawai’i, and against BYU. They also had a sizable loss at Richmond, although Griggs has the Spiders in his field for now.

– It will be fun in the next couple of weeks once we start hashing out seed lines as a committee would; keep an eye out for these seed lists in podcasts next month as well as brackets in February.