Bracket Projections: January 12th

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CHAD’S BRACKET NOTES (Bracket posted below):

– VCU was my last team in and it was not a team I was expecting to place into the field until I looked at the resumes.  The Rams have been playing a lot better lately and may find a way to sneak into the field after all.

– The ACC led the way with 8 bids, though the Pac-12 and Big Ten were right behind with 7 each.

– 7 conferences took all but two at-large bids (the American and Sun Belt got the last two).  The “major” conferences would be very happy wit these results.

The top 4 teams out were, in order, Florida, Marquette, Washington and Richmond.  The next four out, also in order, were Florida State, St Mary’s, Texas and BYU.

– I know that Oregon as a 5 seed will upset David Griggs, but I really like the way this team is playing right now.  Two teams that I feel are heading the wrong way are Kentucky and Louisville.  UK barely made the protected seed list and Louisville did not.

– I love the 8/9 game in the West Region.  Unfortunately for fans of those teams, tickets would be next to impossible with UNC and Wake both playing in Raleigh as well.

– Oklahoma City could be the site of a great rematch in the East Region Round of 32 of a regular season non-conference rivalry.  I know that David Griggs will appreciate that one.

– I did have to make one seed line move to make the bracket work, dropping my last 12 seed, Boise State, down to 13 and bringing Chattanooga up.  This was to avoid a Boise State-Arizona Round of 64 rematch (they played in the regular season).  This is a soft rule and the committee may allow this rematch to happen and not shift seed lines, although given that they actually played two regular season games against each other (as John noted), I feel the rule would be enforced here.

– I also do not like the fact that I am sending both at-large First Four winners west to Denver and Spokane, but those were the only two cities on the 12 line.  I wonder if the committee would bump one of both First Four games up a line if this happens.  I did not make the bump.

 

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JOHN’S COMMENTS

– I suspect that Chad gave a slight edge to North Carolina over Maryland on his S-Curve; there’s a good chance that UNC is still undefeated if they’re completely healthy throughout the season. (Chad’s Response: Actually, Maryland was my last 2 seed.  They lack the quality wins the others have)

– We did discuss that the SEC won’t offer many opportunities for signature wins, but I’m believing more and more that Kentucky, South Carolina and Texas A&M will remain a gauntlet throughout the season. Did Chad name Kentucky or Angry Frank as their autobid? Just curious. (Chad’s Response: Kentucky)

– Iowa and Butler are being seriously undersold as 6 and 7 seeds, respectively. If the Purdue win by both teams is looking less spectacular, why are the Boilers still a protected seed? (Chad’s Response: It is lack of quality wins outside of both teams beating Purdue.  Iowa’s win over Michigan State was over a Spartan team missing their top player.  Purdue’s resume is still much stronger overall even with the losses.)

– Since Arizona and Boise State actually played twice this year, I suspect that the Committee will also look to make sure they don’t face each other until the Round of 16 like teams from the same conference who play each other twice during the season. As for the First Four games going to Denver and Spokane, I wonder if the Committee would also shuffle the cities to ensure that a First Four team plays closer to Dayton (i.e. Des Moines on a Thursday, Oklahoma City on a Friday).

 

DAVID’S COMMENTS

-Most of what Chad did wasn’t entirely insane, but some of it still was.  I’ve never seen someone that was so impressed with teams who do nothing other than beat sub tournament caliber opponents at home as Chad is.  Oregon on the #5 line?  Although they’re not in his bracket, he was a proponent of Saint Mary’s as well.  Winning at home is easy.  Even bad teams who miss the NIT still win more than half of their home games.  You don’t deserve credit for only doing what’s easy, and to this point that’s all Oregon has done.

-Whereas winning at home is easy, winning on the road is tough.  Monmouth is a team that has won on the road in bulk this year.  In fact, I believe they have more wins away from home than anyone else in this field.  Now, I realize there are teams who would have posted the same record if they played the same schedule, but I’d venture to say that it’s not everyone from the #11 line on up.  Monmouth is not a protected seed, but in my mind they belong in on the first ballot, and should be around the #8 or #9 line.  They’ve won so many games away from home, including UCLA and USC, who he has higher in his bracket than Monmouth.  Chad’s a UTR Guy!!  Where’s the love??

-And yes, Iowa v Iowa State in the Round of 32 would be amazing.  So would Dayton v Xavier.  If only Chad would have taken a few extra minutes to create that potential gem of a matchup! (John’s comment – At least USC was much more competitive against Xavier than Dayton was, if we’re talking rematches)

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