NOTES ON THE BRACKET
I am making no attempt to guess what the actual selection committee will do on Selection Sunday. I am merely showing everyone what I personally think the bracket should look like if the season ended today.
-Below you will see comments from other Hoops HD staff members. If they disagree with what I’ve done, just remember that I am right and they are wrong!
-I still like Oklahoma as the overall #1 seed despite the loss at Kansas State. They will drop in the rankings, and Villanova will likely move ahead of them. The thing is that Oklahoma beat Villanova rather handily, and did so on a neutral floor. As long as the profiles are similar, that head to head result kind of serves as a tiebreaker.
-I have Valparaiso much higher than the actual committee probably will. I know their paper doesn’t support them being a first ballot team, but I do think they are one of the 36 best teams in the country. I think the close loss at Oregon, the win at Oregon State, and managing nine overall true road wins is rather impressive, especially when they’ve blown past their opponents like you’d expect a first ballot team to do.
-Virginia has some very non-#2 seed stuff on their profile, but they’ve picked up two very big road wins just in the past week, and are suddenly playing like a #1 seed. I have them at #5 overall, even though I realize there are some things on their paper to suggest that’s too high.
-I’m not nearly as big on Maryland as seemingly everyone else is. They’ve beaten just one team away from home that looks like they’re going to make the field, and that’s UConn, and they did so on a neutral site and not in a true road game. They’ve actually had to sweat out most of the teams they’ve played on the road, even the ones that aren’t tournament caliber teams. That doesn’t scream top five to me, even though that’s where they are ranked.
OTHER LINKS
-As mentioned above, no attempt is being made by me to guess the actual Selection Committee. Jon Teitel is our resident selection committee guessing expert, and his most recent bracket can be seen by CLICKING HERE
-For Today’s News, Notes, and Higlighted Games – CLICK HERE
-For Chad Sherwood’s Under the Radar Game of the Day – CLICK HERE
TEAMS THAT WERE NEXT IN LINE: Saint Mary’s, Temple, Georgetown, Kansas State, Saint Bonaventure, California, UCLA, Oregon State, Hofstra, Texas Tech, Tulsa, Davidson
COMMENTS FROM JOHN
– I really don’t have too many serious quibbles this week, although I think a case can now be made to flip-flop Dayton and Providence on the S-Curve. I know the Friars have a gaudy record away from home, but at some point you have to ding them for multiple home losses (including to Marquette who is only above DePaul and St. John’s in the Big East standings) and for their recent loss to DePaul on the road. Dayton had their annual hiccup in A-10 play, but it can’t negate a superb nonconference slate that included wins over Iowa, Monmouth and Vanderbilt.
– I would also argue that Duke and Indiana should be flip-flopped if we’re talking about resumes that are relatively even. Indiana’s loss at Wisconsin is forgivable when you consider that we’ll probably begin including the Badgers in our fields like David has already done. Their loss at Penn State is not nearly as forgivable and negates part of the goodwill they earned with a decisive win at Michigan. As unpopular as it is to make a case for Duke, I think you really have to look at how hamstrung they’ve looked as a team without Amile Jefferson in their lineup. They would be well advised to be able to beat a team like Louisville at home tonight.
– And how about Wisconsin and LSU? These are probably the top two teams that should have been left out had it not been for SMU and Louisville’s misdeeds off the court. I personally would have chosen Oregon State ahead of Wisconsin for now, although I suspect that David valued the Badgers’ win at Syracuse a lot more. I know the Beavers don’t have a signature win away from home (you really think our committee considers TULSA a signature win?), but their two worst losses this year were at home against Stanford and at Arizona State. That’s more forgivable than losing at home to Western Illinois, UW-Milwaukee and a Marquette team with a triple-digit RPI. I do agree with the LSU pick – at least as long as they are at the top of the SEC standings.
COMMENTS FROM CHAD
– I think David did a pretty good job among the top 4 seeds, with one glaring exception. Purdue does not belong there. I know the Boilermakers have fairly gaudy power-ranking numbers (top 20 in the BPI and the KenPom ratings), but they have only two top 50 wins and only one win beyond that against anyone solidly in this field (a third if you agree that Wisconsin belongs in). David overvalues road wins so I understand his love for them, I just personally feel that Dayton has a superior profile. In fact, I can probably find 8-10 teams whose profiles I prefer to Purdue including teams like Utah, Texas A&M, Baylor, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, and more.
– I can’t believe I am doing this after making Duke a 12 seed last week, but I now feel that David has them ranked too low at 8 (yes, I am guess I am admitting that I was wrong about them). The Blue Devils picked up a pair of wins this week to stop the bleeding and given that Clemson is in the discussion for an at-large bid, they really did not suffer any bad losses. On top of that they have a very impressive 10 Top 100 wins, with half of those being away from home. The only knock on their resume is the lack of top 50 wins (only one), but I think they have done enough to merit being a couple lines higher than 8.
– Valparaiso. I want to love this team as much as David does, but maybe one of my faults is that I overvalue the actual resume. And their resume is nothing more than a win at Oregon State right now. In other words, they have one win (albeit on the road) against a team in or close to being in the field offset by 3 losses to teams not inside the bubble, two of those being very bad ones (at Ball State and at Wright State). Given that they have no opportunities left to improve the profile, I have trouble seeing this team getting in with one more bad loss, which is what they would suffer in the Horizon League tournament if they need an at-large bid. Would I have the Crusaders inside the First Four right now? Yes, but probably at the bottom of the 11 or top of the 12 line.
– Clemson. I like the volume of top 50 wins, but you also need to beat the non-top 50 teams you play. 7 wins against teams in the field is great, 5 losses to teams not in the field is not. And, per David’s top category, only one of those 7 top wins is away from home (or at least the court that Clemson is calling home this season). I have trouble giving an at-large bid to a team with 9 losses already and what would be an historically low RPI for an at-large bid (83). The loss this weekend at Va Tech was exactly what their resume did not need.
– I also disagree with Wisconsin being in the field, but not very strongly as they would be one of my first teams out. The teams I would have in instead of the Badgers and Clemson would have been Oregon State and Cal. Cal especially is being overly penalized by David for their lack of road wins, but they do not have the ugliness at the bottom of their profile that Clemson or Wisconsin have, while holding a pile of nice wins at the top. I do agree with David that St. Mary’s does not belong in at the moment, and that LSU does belong.
– I also have a comment that has to do with the 13 line, where David has placed the Mocs of Chattanooga. I do not see much of a difference between their resume and Valpo’s, other than the fact that winning at Dayton is a WAY BETTER win than winning at Oregon State. And yet David has the Mocs below the First Four line and Valpo way above it. If he switched these two teams in his bracket, I would be happier with it. Personally, I think Chattanooga should be a solid 11 seed and toeing the 10 line right now.
– Finally, I do not believe that Yale would be sent to Providence to play Maryland. As a protected seed, Maryland should not be placed at a home court disadvantage in the Round of 64, and given that it is just a bit over an hour from New Haven to Providence, an argument could be made that such a placement would do just that. I would probably flip them with South Dakota State or UC-Irvine on the 14 line.
Hoops HD Bracket Projections (David Griggs): February 8th
NOTES ON THE BRACKET
I am making no attempt to guess what the actual selection committee will do on Selection Sunday. I am merely showing everyone what I personally think the bracket should look like if the season ended today.
-Below you will see comments from other Hoops HD staff members. If they disagree with what I’ve done, just remember that I am right and they are wrong!
-I still like Oklahoma as the overall #1 seed despite the loss at Kansas State. They will drop in the rankings, and Villanova will likely move ahead of them. The thing is that Oklahoma beat Villanova rather handily, and did so on a neutral floor. As long as the profiles are similar, that head to head result kind of serves as a tiebreaker.
-I have Valparaiso much higher than the actual committee probably will. I know their paper doesn’t support them being a first ballot team, but I do think they are one of the 36 best teams in the country. I think the close loss at Oregon, the win at Oregon State, and managing nine overall true road wins is rather impressive, especially when they’ve blown past their opponents like you’d expect a first ballot team to do.
-Virginia has some very non-#2 seed stuff on their profile, but they’ve picked up two very big road wins just in the past week, and are suddenly playing like a #1 seed. I have them at #5 overall, even though I realize there are some things on their paper to suggest that’s too high.
-I’m not nearly as big on Maryland as seemingly everyone else is. They’ve beaten just one team away from home that looks like they’re going to make the field, and that’s UConn, and they did so on a neutral site and not in a true road game. They’ve actually had to sweat out most of the teams they’ve played on the road, even the ones that aren’t tournament caliber teams. That doesn’t scream top five to me, even though that’s where they are ranked.
OTHER LINKS
-As mentioned above, no attempt is being made by me to guess the actual Selection Committee. Jon Teitel is our resident selection committee guessing expert, and his most recent bracket can be seen by CLICKING HERE
-For Today’s News, Notes, and Higlighted Games – CLICK HERE
-For Chad Sherwood’s Under the Radar Game of the Day – CLICK HERE
TEAMS THAT WERE NEXT IN LINE: Saint Mary’s, Temple, Georgetown, Kansas State, Saint Bonaventure, California, UCLA, Oregon State, Hofstra, Texas Tech, Tulsa, Davidson
COMMENTS FROM JOHN
– I really don’t have too many serious quibbles this week, although I think a case can now be made to flip-flop Dayton and Providence on the S-Curve. I know the Friars have a gaudy record away from home, but at some point you have to ding them for multiple home losses (including to Marquette who is only above DePaul and St. John’s in the Big East standings) and for their recent loss to DePaul on the road. Dayton had their annual hiccup in A-10 play, but it can’t negate a superb nonconference slate that included wins over Iowa, Monmouth and Vanderbilt.
– I would also argue that Duke and Indiana should be flip-flopped if we’re talking about resumes that are relatively even. Indiana’s loss at Wisconsin is forgivable when you consider that we’ll probably begin including the Badgers in our fields like David has already done. Their loss at Penn State is not nearly as forgivable and negates part of the goodwill they earned with a decisive win at Michigan. As unpopular as it is to make a case for Duke, I think you really have to look at how hamstrung they’ve looked as a team without Amile Jefferson in their lineup. They would be well advised to be able to beat a team like Louisville at home tonight.
– And how about Wisconsin and LSU? These are probably the top two teams that should have been left out had it not been for SMU and Louisville’s misdeeds off the court. I personally would have chosen Oregon State ahead of Wisconsin for now, although I suspect that David valued the Badgers’ win at Syracuse a lot more. I know the Beavers don’t have a signature win away from home (you really think our committee considers TULSA a signature win?), but their two worst losses this year were at home against Stanford and at Arizona State. That’s more forgivable than losing at home to Western Illinois, UW-Milwaukee and a Marquette team with a triple-digit RPI. I do agree with the LSU pick – at least as long as they are at the top of the SEC standings.
COMMENTS FROM CHAD
– I think David did a pretty good job among the top 4 seeds, with one glaring exception. Purdue does not belong there. I know the Boilermakers have fairly gaudy power-ranking numbers (top 20 in the BPI and the KenPom ratings), but they have only two top 50 wins and only one win beyond that against anyone solidly in this field (a third if you agree that Wisconsin belongs in). David overvalues road wins so I understand his love for them, I just personally feel that Dayton has a superior profile. In fact, I can probably find 8-10 teams whose profiles I prefer to Purdue including teams like Utah, Texas A&M, Baylor, Pittsburgh, Notre Dame, and more.
– I can’t believe I am doing this after making Duke a 12 seed last week, but I now feel that David has them ranked too low at 8 (yes, I am guess I am admitting that I was wrong about them). The Blue Devils picked up a pair of wins this week to stop the bleeding and given that Clemson is in the discussion for an at-large bid, they really did not suffer any bad losses. On top of that they have a very impressive 10 Top 100 wins, with half of those being away from home. The only knock on their resume is the lack of top 50 wins (only one), but I think they have done enough to merit being a couple lines higher than 8.
– Valparaiso. I want to love this team as much as David does, but maybe one of my faults is that I overvalue the actual resume. And their resume is nothing more than a win at Oregon State right now. In other words, they have one win (albeit on the road) against a team in or close to being in the field offset by 3 losses to teams not inside the bubble, two of those being very bad ones (at Ball State and at Wright State). Given that they have no opportunities left to improve the profile, I have trouble seeing this team getting in with one more bad loss, which is what they would suffer in the Horizon League tournament if they need an at-large bid. Would I have the Crusaders inside the First Four right now? Yes, but probably at the bottom of the 11 or top of the 12 line.
– Clemson. I like the volume of top 50 wins, but you also need to beat the non-top 50 teams you play. 7 wins against teams in the field is great, 5 losses to teams not in the field is not. And, per David’s top category, only one of those 7 top wins is away from home (or at least the court that Clemson is calling home this season). I have trouble giving an at-large bid to a team with 9 losses already and what would be an historically low RPI for an at-large bid (83). The loss this weekend at Va Tech was exactly what their resume did not need.
– I also disagree with Wisconsin being in the field, but not very strongly as they would be one of my first teams out. The teams I would have in instead of the Badgers and Clemson would have been Oregon State and Cal. Cal especially is being overly penalized by David for their lack of road wins, but they do not have the ugliness at the bottom of their profile that Clemson or Wisconsin have, while holding a pile of nice wins at the top. I do agree with David that St. Mary’s does not belong in at the moment, and that LSU does belong.
– I also have a comment that has to do with the 13 line, where David has placed the Mocs of Chattanooga. I do not see much of a difference between their resume and Valpo’s, other than the fact that winning at Dayton is a WAY BETTER win than winning at Oregon State. And yet David has the Mocs below the First Four line and Valpo way above it. If he switched these two teams in his bracket, I would be happier with it. Personally, I think Chattanooga should be a solid 11 seed and toeing the 10 line right now.
– Finally, I do not believe that Yale would be sent to Providence to play Maryland. As a protected seed, Maryland should not be placed at a home court disadvantage in the Round of 64, and given that it is just a bit over an hour from New Haven to Providence, an argument could be made that such a placement would do just that. I would probably flip them with South Dakota State or UC-Irvine on the 14 line.