Hoops HD Bracket Projections (John Stalica) : February 15th

The bracket below was posted by John Stalica on Monday, February 14th, at 1am, est.  It is not a prediction of what he thinks the real committee will do on Selection Sunday, but rather what he personally thinks the field should look like if the season ended today.  Below the bracket are comments and criticisms from others on the Hoops HD Staff.

Jon Teitel is our resident selection committee guessing expert.  To see his latest seed list (bracket coming soon) – CLICK HERE

JOHN’S NOTES

– Slowly but surely, we are seeing law and order being restored to the bracket this week. If you’re a fan of a traditional power like Duke and Kentucky, this was a week where you began to rise closer to protected seed territory. Kentucky won’t have as many chances to improve as Duke will; the Blue Devils get their next round of mid-term exams with upcoming games at North Carolina and Louisville. As for Carolina, playtime in the ACC bakery is over; 5 of their final 6 games will involve 2 games with Duke, a game at Virginia and home games against Miami and Syracuse.

– While the bad news for many Under-The-Radar programs was that only Monmouth and Arkansas-Little Rock remained above the First Four this week, it doesn’t drastically affect the seeds for teams like Chattanooga, Valparaiso and Wichita State. However, they have no margin for error now if they lose in their conference tournaments (especially Wichita; they would be in line to face a very dangerous Northern Iowa team in the Valley semifinals).

– If you want to look at a pair of programs left for dead going into January, look no further than Alabama and Wisconsin. Alabama scored some solid SEC wins against Texas A&M and Florida; Wisconsin vaulted their way back in the field with a venegance after winning at Maryland on Saturday.

– If you’re a fan of blueblood programs, the South Region would be the place to be. If you’re looking for intriguing matchups (and potential Big 5 rematches), the East Region is for you.

-If Louisville and SMU were still eligible for postseason, they would have been on the 7-line as of this week.

COMMENTS

Chad’s Comments:

– I actually do not have many comments about the top of John’s brackets, and my first major disagreement with him comes on the 8 line, where he has Seton Hall.  I just don’t see the profile there for the Pirates, and personally would have them barely in the field, if at all.  The Pirates do not have much in terms of bad losses (other than arguably Long Beach State and Creighton at home), but also only have one win against teams that are solidly in.  That win, at Providence, does not look as good anymore as it used to either as the Friars have fallen.  I think he Pirates belong several seed lines lower.

– My disagreements with John get even stronger at the 9 line where he has both St. Joe’s and VCU.  The Hawks simply do not have the paper to be this high and would be my very last team in right now.  They only have 3 top 100 wins, and none against teams solidly  in the field.  They would only be in right now because two of those wins were road wins (at Temple and at GW).  VCU does NOT belong in the field at all right now.  The Rams had a great start to A-10 play, but have fallen apart badly.  They have no wins against teams solidly in the field and two bad losses, including an awful loss this past week at UMass.  I simply do not see a tournament profile here for now — though they have a chance with a game at Dayton on March 5.  (The team he left out that I would have in is Cincinnati, but they would be in the First Four).

– I actually would have both Temple and California higher than John does.  Temple has some blemishes on their resume, but is 6-0 on the season against Cincinnati, UConn, SMU and Tulsa.  Given that those are the only other four quality programs in the American this year, it is very impressive to me.  They have a chance for a season-making win this week hosting Villanova in a Big Five game.  California is one of the stranger resumes I remember seeing in a long time.  In terms of quality wins, they are way up there, with 10 Top 100, 5 Top 50, and 3 Top 25 victories, including a win over Oregon this past week.  The problem is only one win away from home.  But if ever a team deserved a bid without doing anything on the road, this is the team that does.  The Golden Bears do have four of their last six games away from home and better win a few of those!

David’s Comments:

-Chad already touched on this, but I’m not as big on Saint Joe’s either for pretty much the same reasons he’s not.

-Chad likes Temple more than John.  I can’t stop laughing about that.

-There is one area where I think John is way different from what the actual committee will do, and that’s with Monmouth.  But, having said that, I’m with John on this.  This Monmouth team has won a ton of road games, and beaten multiple NCAA Tournament teams away from home.  They should be on the #8 line, and should be in on the initial ballot if they win out during the regular season.

-Wisconsin on the #11 line is interesting.  If the season ended today, I think John has it about right.  But, I think Wiscy’s profile is going to improve drastically between now and the end of the season.

-I’m still not big on California and their one true road win.  I know winning on the road is tough, but to make the tournament you should at least have to beat the teams that suck.  They need to add to that if they want to land inside the bubble.  Now, having said that, I think they will, but until they do I personally wouldn’t have them in at all.

-John isn’t big on Texas, and he’s not alone.  I seem to like them more than just about everyone else.  I know they’re coming off of two straight losses, but one of those was at Oklahoma, and the other was at Iowa State.  Both of those are snake pits, so I don’t think they should even get dinged for not picking up either win.