Conference tourney previews (Part 2 of 2)

HoopsHD began the best month of the year last week with Part 1 of our preview of every single conference tourney in the nation. Part 2 of Jon Teitel’s predictions for the remaining 18 tourneys is below: hopefully these will turn out a little better than the 0-for-4 record he has so far with last week’s picks.

1. AAC tourney predicted champ: Tulsa
Last year’s tourney champ: SMU (#1-seed)
This is 1 of the few tourneys that is guaranteed to have a new champ for the 3rd straight year: 2014 title-winner Louisville is now in the ACC and 2015 title-winner SMU is ineligible for postseason play. This year’s location will also shift for the 3rd straight year: from Memphis to Hartford to Orlando. As a fan of Fran (Dunphy) I want to pick Temple, but since they got whipped at Tulsa on 2/23 I will go with the Golden Hurricane. They have been underwhelming on the road (losing 4 of their last 6 outside Oklahoma) but with 7 seniors among their top-8 scorers you know those crafty veterans are not ready for their careers to end. They are among the best in the nation at holding onto the ball but with a 6’4” guard leading them in rebounding they are praying to avoid a team who does most of its work in the post.

2. ACC tourney predicted champ: North Carolina
Last year’s tourney champ: Notre Dame (#3-seed)
This tourney has had a different champ in each of the past 5 years, and North Carolina has been runner-up to 4 of them, so the 5th time is the charm for the Tar Heels even though the tourney shifts to DC after 3 straight years in Greensboro. Coach Roy Williams has not lost a game by more than 6 PTS all season so his team should be able to keep it close against whoever they face. 4 of their top-6 scorers are 6’8” or taller, which is why they are among the best rebounding teams in the nation, and if Brice Johnson is averaging a double-double in only 27 MPG just imagine what he will do if forced to play 37 MPG in March!

3. A-10 tourney predicted champ: St. Bonaventure
Last year’s tourney champ: VCU (#5-seed)
This tourney has had a different champ in each of the past 6 years so I want to pick Dayton to be lucky #7, but they have looked terrible in their last 6 games: 3 losses, 2 OT wins, and a 3rd win by a single point. The top-4 seeds get a double-bye, which leaves VCU/St. Bonaventure/St. Joe’s, and of those 3 the Bonnies are playing the best of anyone having won 10 of their final 11. There are very few teams who feature 3 players each scoring 16+ PPG, but witness the 3-headed beast that is Marcus Posley/Jaylen Adams/Dion Wright. The team from New York might have a lot of fans in attendance for their games in Brooklyn, and if a game goes down to the wire then their 77.7 FT% means they will not lose the game at the line.

4. Big East tourney predicted champ: Villanova
Last year’s tourney champ: Villanova (#1-seed)
The Wildcats won the tourney last year as the #1 seed, and they have done very little over the past 365 days to make anyone think they will not do so again. They have only lost 2 games since Christmas, and could get a chance for revenge if they face Providence in the semis and Xavier in the finals. Villanova has everything you want for success in March: a SR PG in Ryan Arcidiacano, a 6’11” C in Daniel Ochefu, 5 guys scoring in double-figures, and the #1 FT shooting team in the nation. They are not my favorite Wildcats, but this tourney is theirs to lose.

5. Big Sky tourney predicted champ: Idaho
Last year’s tourney champ: Eastern Washington (#2-seed)
History really does not mean anything this year, as this is the 1st Big Sky tourney ever involving all 12 schools and held at a neutral site (Reno). Weber State has been the class of the league, but the only team they failed to beat was Idaho, so I am picking the Vandals to steal this title. If you like games that go down to the wire then this is the team for you: 13 of their past 15 games have been decided by 7 PTS or less. They are also getting hot at the right time, having won 8 of their past 10. None of their top-6 scorers are seniors so this team might be 1 year away from something special, but when you have 250 more REB than your opponents it sounds like you are ready to win right now.

6. Big 10 tourney predicted champ: Michigan State
Last year’s tourney champ: Wisconsin (#1-seed)
Only 4 teams have won this tourney since 2007, which continues to shuttle back and forth between Chicago and Indianapolis before heading to DC next March. This year’s edition is wide-open, with each of the top-9 teams having 19+ regular season wins. Wisconsin has gone from off the bubble to a lock in the matter of 7 weeks, but their 1 loss was by double-digits to the Spartans on 2/18. If the Badgers can repeat as champs after losing Bo Ryan/Sam Dekker/Frank Kaminsky, then kudos to them, but I think Tom Izzo will be hoisting the trophy next weekend. Since losing 3 straight in mid-January, Michigan State has won 10 of 11 with their only loss by a single point at Purdue in OT on 2/9. They are in the top-25 in the nation in both offense and defense, have the best all-around player in the nation in Denzel Valentine, and each of their top-4 shooters from behind the arc are shooting at least 40 3P%.

7. Big 12 tourney predicted champ: Kansas
Last year’s tourney champ: Iowa State (#2-seed)
Every single winner of this tourney has been a top-3 seed, so even though this conference is stacked the eventual victor will probably be 1 of Kansas/Oklahoma/West Virginia. The tourney remains in Kansas City for the 7th straight March, which gives the Jayhawks a home-court advantage away from home. Every basketball fan wants to see Round 3 of Jayhawks-Sooners, but as West Virginia swept Oklahoma during the regular season we might not get what we want. Kansas and the Mountaineers split their 2 meetings so far, but I will give the edge to the Jayhawks due to playing in Kansas City. They have senior leadership in Perry Ellis, a veteran PG in Frank Mason, a quintet of guys who shoot at least 41 3P%, and a coach who is a week away from making his 18th straight NCAA tourney appearance.

8. Big West tourney predicted champ: Hawaii
Last year’s tourney champ: UC Irvine (#3-seed)
The only team that the Rainbow Warriors have to worry about is Long Beach State, who swept them during the regular season. However, since UC Irvine swept the Beach during the regular season, I think the Anteaters can beat them again in the semis. Hawaii and Irvine are the 2 best teams in the conference, but since Hawaii swept them during a 10-day stretch in February I think it will be aloha all the way. They have a pair of 6’11” big men from foreign countries, a bunch of guards from California, and a guy named Sai from the best high school in Arizona: what more could you want!?

9. C-USA tourney predicted champ: UAB
Last year’s tourney champ: UAB (#4-seed)
UAB seemed pretty happy last year with the tourney moving to Birmingham, so if they won it all as a #4 seed I wonder what they can do as a #1 seed. Charlotte is the only other past champ who is still even in the conference after the departures of Memphis/Cincinnati/Louisville/St. Louis/Marquette/Houston over the past few years. The top-4 seeds get a huge advantage with the double bye, and the Blazers swept a pair of games against both Marshall and Middle Tennessee this year, so the main obstacle in their path is Louisiana Tech and star G Alex Hamilton who has played out of his mind during the past 3 games (96 PTS/20 REB/22 AST/10 STL/32-48 FG/26-30 FT).

10. Ivy tourney predicted champ: no conference tourney (Yale)
Last year’s champ: Harvard
Thanks for nothing Princeton!

11. MAC tourney predicted champ: Akron
Last year’s tourney champ: Buffalo (#2-seed)
The state of Ohio had owned this tourney for a decade (not a surprise as the location has been various cities within the state since 1993) until Western Michigan and Buffalo expanded the geography over the past 2 years. The top-2 seeds had previously received double-byes but this year we go back to single-byes for each of the top-4 seeds. Akron has had 1 rollercoaster of a season: the Zips started 3-2, then won 17 of their next 19, then lost their final 3 road games to finish 24-7. They swept a pair of games against both Buffalo and Ohio and did not lose a home game all season, so even if LeBron cannot win a title this spring and least someone else from Akron will.

12. MEAC tourney predicted champ: Norfolk State
Last year’s tourney champ: Hampton (#6-seed)
This tourney has featured 7 different winners over the past 9 years, so even though Hampton is the defending champ and the #1 seed they are far from a slam dunk. Not only can the Spartans use a little home cooking, they are battle-tested due to a brutal non-conference schedule that included South Carolina, Cincinnati, and Alabama. They have a trio of seniors guards scoring 12+ PPG who do not turn the ball over that much, and with 1 of the best FT shooting teams in the country they can win a close game at the line.

13. MWC tourney predicted champ: San Diego State
Last year’s tourney champ: Wyoming (#4-seed)
The Aztecs won back-to-back titles in 2010/2011 and have been runner-up in 3 of the 4 years since then. Fresno State has won 10 of 12 since an OT loss in San Diego on 1/19 but the Aztecs have been even better: since a home loss to Kansas a few days before Christmas they have won 16 of 18 with the 2 losses coming by a combined 4 PTS. Coach Steve Fisher has 1 of the best defenses in the country, and with only 1 senior among his top-6 scorers this team has not taken as big of a dive as a I thought they would.

14. Pac-12 predicted champ: Arizona
Last year’s tourney champ: Arizona (#1-seed)
This tourney has featured a different winner in each of the past 5 years so I was thinking of picking Utah to make it 6-for-6, but Oregon swept them during the regular season. I was all set to pick Cal when they were leading Arizona by 8 in Tucson last Thursday night with under 2 minutes to go…but then Gabe York made a pair of threes to help the Wildcats pull off the miraculous comeback…and then he made 9 more from behind the arc in only 30 minutes against Stanford on Saturday, so bye bye Bears. My head says that the Ducks should be the pick, especially after snapping the Cats’ home-court winning streak on 1/28, but my heart says to go with the alma mater.

15. SEC predicted champ: Texas A&M
Last year’s tourney champ: Kentucky (#1-seed)
For all of Kentucky’s dominance over the past several years, the “Wildcat Invitational” has featured a different winner during each of the past 4 years. The top-4 seeds each get a double-bye, but that might actually hurt a team like LSU who could use a couple of more wins rather than a couple of more days of rest. Kentucky is 17-0 at Rupp Arena this year but only 6-8 outside the Bluegrass State, so beating a trio of 20-win teams on 3 straight nights in Nashville is asking a lot. LSU has some injuries and South Carolina has not won 3 straight games since early January so I will go chalk and pick the Aggies. They lost 5 of 6 in the middle of their conference schedule but have recovered to win each of their final 6 games. 3 of their top-7 scorers are freshmen so a little extra rest this week could pay big dividends.

16. Southland predicted champ: Stephen F. Austin
Last year’s tourney champ: Stephen F. Austin (#1-seed)
For all of the (well-deserved) recognition Bill Self has received for winning 12 straight Big 12 titles, can I get a little love for Brad Underwood?! All the guy has done in 3 years at SFA is win 86 of 99 games, post a conference record of 53-1, and if all goes well he will end up making his 3rd straight trip to the NCAA tourney. Texas A&M-CC will also get a double-bye as the #2 seed, but unless they can convince the league to give them a quadruple-bye I do not think they are cutting down the Lumberjacks. Nobody wants to travel to Nacogdoches so most of their quality non-conference games, yet they only had 1 non-conference loss this year by more than 10 PTS. They do not have much size but each of their top-3 scorers are seniors and the team is among the best in the country at both AST/STL.

17. SWAC predicted champ: Texas Southern
Last year’s tourney champ: Texas Southern (#1-seed)
If it was a 1-game playoff I might choose Southern to pull off the upset, but I cannot pick a team that lost 4 of its final 5 to finish the regular season. The Tigers have won each of the past 2 tourneys, their only 2 losses since New Year’s Eve were by a combined 9 PTS, and #2 seed Alcorn State is ineligible for the NCAA tourney. Coach Mike Davis does not have a single player standing taller than 6’8”, but what he does have is 4 seniors among his top-5 scorers and a freshman in Derrick Griffin who is averaging a double-double and will have plenty of family/friends in attendance for the tourney in his hometown of Houston.

18. Sun Belt predicted champ: Arkansas-Little Rock
Last year’s tourney champ: Georgia State (#1-seed)
This tourney has featured 5 different winners during the past 6 years but remains in New Orleans for the 2nd straight year after 5-year run in Hot Springs. You can almost guarantee that this tourney will go all the way down to the wire as each of the last 6 titles games have been decided by 1-4 PTS (including last year’s ugly 38-36 win by Georgia State). UT-Arlington was looking like the favorite in mid-January with a 13-2 record and road wins over Ohio State and Memphis, but after losing 5 of their next 6 they fell right off the bubble. The Trojans had a similar resume (15-2 with road wins over San Diego State and Tulsa), but kept their foot on the pedal to finish 27-4 and tie 4 other teams for the fewest losses in the nation. They are far from an NCAA lock, but even if they were to get upset by Arlington or Louisiana-Monroe in the final after enjoying their double-bye their body of work would be mighty appealing to the selection committee. If you can find a better 1st-year coach than Chris Beard, I would love to meet him: Fear the Beard!

19. WAC predicted champ: New Mexico State
Last year’s tourney champ: New Mexico State (#1-seed)
Of course I would pick the Lopes if they were allowed to participate, but since they cannot that means the Aggies will not have to face the only team they lost to in conference play. Coach Marvin Menzies is the 4-time defending champ, and with 9 players on the roster who are 6’7” or taller providing a 310 REB advantage during the year they will never get beat up on the boards. Pascal Siakam was conference ROY last year, he should be conference POY/DPOY this year, and if he stays in school for 4 years then he will become 1 of the best players in conference history.