The bracket below is not an attempt to guess what the actual selection committee will do on Selection Sunday, but rather what John Stalica personally thinks the bracket should look like if the season ended today.
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Bracket updated on Monday, March 7th, at 9am, est
JOHN’S BRACKET NOTES
– Michigan State and Virginia were very close for the final #1 seed, but I gave a slight edge to the Spartans since they had 1 less loss than UVa (as well as better quality of losses). North Carolina would be a 1-seed if they get the ACC double this weekend. (Also keep in mind I broke an unwritten bracketing rule by sending the Hoos to Raleigh, so they are in the same region with Michigan State. Sorry, Joby!)
– Speaking of North Carolina, they are going to settle the argument with Dayton in the 2nd round as to who is really the First in Flight/Birthplace of Aviation. Temple, of course, is more than capable of ruining that party.
– I have St Bonaventure not only in, but a few spots above the First 4 since they have plenty of wins against the top of the A-10 along with a share of the regular-season title. Losing their A-10 opener to Davidson would not be a killer, but losing to Duquesne or La Salle again would be fatal.
– Because of their win in the Big 10 finale tonight, I’m bumping Purdue up into protected seed territory and Maryland down to the first 5-seed. Beating Wisconsin a 2nd time might be enough to get the Terps back into protected seed land.
– I have Monmouth below Michigan (my last at-large) on my current seed list. I think they could have lost to Siena and still get an at-large, but I don’t think they can lose to Iona again. They would be well advised to not pull a Cluess against its namesake in the MAAC Championship.
– There is also one minor flip that I made in the bracket – SFA and Stony Brook traded places since I didn’t want to put Iowa State at a potential home-court disadvantage against Stony Brook. It’s a short distance from Long Island to Providence as the bird flies, but I doubt the ferries are operational in March.
– There will be plenty of opportunities for Tulsa and UConn to get a win or two that could vault them on the right side of the bubble this weekend. UConn cannot survive a 3rd loss to Cincinnati (no matter how much lobbying Mick Cronin does for you guys), nor can Tulsa survive a loss to Houston.
STAFF COMMENTS AND CRITICISMS
David
-Oregon State got a huge win over the weekend against UCLA on the road. UCLA isn’t a tournament team, but Oregon State had so few road wins that a win of any kind would have helped their profile. I’m not sure I like them so much that I’d put them on the #9 line, but I do think they are relatively safely inside the bubble.
-I’m just not seeing it with Saint Mary’s. I don’t have them inside the bubble, much less inside the First four. They loaded up on home games, which were mostly against cupcakes, out of conference, and they don’t exactly play a whole lot of tournament caliber teams in conference. They’ve also had to sweat out some games against teams that are nowhere close to making the field. Now, to their credit, I guess they did win pretty much all of them, but they just don’t look like a #10 seed caliber team. I like pretty much all the teams on his #11 line and most of the teams on his #12 line better than Saint Mary’s.
-I’m not quite as sold on South Carolina either. The more that I look at them, the less good I think they are. I still think they’re safely in the field, but I don’t have them wearing white in the Round of 64.
-I agree with all the #1 seeds, except that I would swap out Virginia and Michigan State for now. But, Michigan State would be my top #2 seed, so we’re not that far off.
Chad
-I know that I am in the minority here, but I would seriously argue that Oregon belongs on the 1 line, especially if they win the Pac 12 Tournament. They have 19 Top 100 and 10 Top 50 wins, with 7 of those actually being against the Top 30. The only negatives were their losses at Stanford and against UNLV, but everyone has some pretty ugly warts this year.
-I agree with John that Texas A&M is on the 5 seed and could even move into protected seed status if they win the SEC Tournament. This team has almost very quietly been playing very good basketball the last few weeks and could be among the hottest in the nation if the win this week.
-I hate agreeing with David ever, but his comments on South Carolina are right on point and the Gamecocks could be sweating things out on Selection Sunday if they lose their SEC Tournament opener.
-I would have left both VCU and Michigan out and gone with UConn and Tulsa as my last two teams in, but all four teams are fairly close in my rankings and I can see the argument either way. I also think that Florida State, Houston and Georgia Tech merit some consideration, though none of those would be in my field right now either.
-Finally, while I do not think the committee would allow Stony Brook to play in Brooklyn, I do not see how they would have a home court advantage playing in Providence. The “home court disadvantage” rule is not defined in the Principles and Procedures so the committee can interpret it themselves and will understand that it is a much longer drive from Long Island to Providence than the straight “as the bird flies” distance. I would expect the Seawolves to be sent to Providence if it is an option, as one of the goals is to try to keep teams within driving distances of their homes.