The best day of the year is finally here! This is why we ponder the impact of high-school All-Americans, the importance of having a smart veteran coach, and exactly how many different “Wildcats” can make the Final 4. For those of you who need some last-minute bracket advice grounded in historical facts/trends, see below. For the rest of you, enjoy the madness!!
TIP #1: No team that lost its opening game in its conference tournament has ever gone on to win the NCAA title that same year.
STRATEGY: The extra few days of rest have not proven helpful so take a long hard look at Indiana before penciling them in as your champ.
TIP #2: Since 1979 only 2 national champions did not have a McDonald’s All-American on their roster (2002 Maryland and 2014 UConn).
STRATEGY: A coach who cannot recruit the best high school players usually fails to win it all so beware of picking Virginia to go all the way.
TIP #3: The last person to win a title in his 1st year as head coach at a school was Tubby Smith at Kentucky in 1998.
STRATEGY: History is not on the side of Iowa State (Steve Prohm) or Texas (Shaka Smart).
TIP #4: Since 1991 24 of 25 champs have come from a power-conference (except for UConn in 2014): ACC (9), SEC (6), Big East (5), Pac-12 (2), Big 12 (1), Big 10 (1).
STRATEGY: You might want to think twice before picking anyone from the A-10 or MVC to win it all.
TIP #5: Only 3 coaches with 4 or fewer prior tournament appearances have won the title since 1985 (Steve Fisher/Tom Izzo/Kevin Ollie).
STRATEGY: Teams like Cal (Cuonzo Martin has 1 prior tourney appearance) and Utah (Larry Krystkowiak has 3 prior tourney appearances) might need a little more seasoning before they can win it all.
TIP #6: Each champ since 2002 had a strength of schedule that was among the top-75 in the nation.
STRATEGY: You have to play the best to learn how to beat the best so stay away from Cincinnati (#77) and Dayton (#92).
TIP #7: Only 3 teams have won an NCAA title after not being in the tournament the previous year (1986 Louisville/2003 Syracuse/2014 UConn).
STRATEGY: Miami (2015 NIT) and Texas A&M (2015 NIT) are finally ready for prime-time but not quite ready to win a title.
TIP #8: There are 6 active coaches who have won at least 67% of their NCAA tournament games (minimum 5 appearances).
STRATEGY: Do not expect Mike Krzyzewski (77.2 W/L%) or Tom Izzo (73 W/L%) to be catching an early flight home.
TIP #9: There are 3 teams who have won at least 90% of their games in the round of 64 (minimum 5 games).
STRATEGY: Kansas (30-2) Maryland (18-2), and North Carolina (27-1) are almost automatic.
TIP #10: There are 8 teams who have won at least 75% of their games in the round of 32 (minimum 5 games).
STRATEGY: Arizona (17-4) is looking good vs. the Miami-Buffalo winner if they can get by Wichita State, but the Indiana-Chattanooga winner better pray for a miracle if they face Kentucky (25-6).
TIP #11: There are 4 teams who have won at least 80% of their Sweet 16 games (minimum 5 games).
STRATEGY: Oregon State (5-1) and Providence (4-1) have each won at least 80% of their Sweet 16 games, so Indiana/Kentucky/Texas/Texas A&M should not rest on their higher-seeded laurels.
TIP #12: There are 8 teams who have won at least 70% of their Elite 8 games (minimum 5 games).
STRATEGY: Duke has won 16 of its 20 Elite 8 games (80%) so keep an eye on them if they can make it to the 2nd Sunday.
TIP #13: There are 5 teams who have won at least 70% of their Final 4 games (minimum 5 games).
STRATEGY: Indiana is 6-2 in the Final 4 so if you pick them to survive the East Region then you might want to pick them to get all the way to the title game.
TIP #14: There are 9 teams who have won at least 80% of their NCAA tournament games in their home state (minimum 5 games).
STRATEGY: You should bank on North Carolina (31-1 in the state of NC) winning in Raleigh.
TIP #15: There are 11 teams who are undefeated in their NCAA tournament games in a specific state (minimum 5 games).
STRATEGY: Duke would have preferred to grab a cheesesteak in Philly (6-0 in the state of PA) but Oregon cannot wait to check out Disneyland in Anaheim (6-0 in the state of CA).
TIP #16: There are 9 teams who have won at least 67% of their NCAA tournament games as an at-large team (minimum 5 games).
STRATEGY: Even though Michigan did not win the Big 10 tourney they have a good track record when they do not get an automatic bid (38-16).