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BIG TEN
Eight times. Since the NCAA started seeding teams, a 2 seed has faced a 15 seed 128 times and the 2s have won 120 games and lost only 8 times. Unfortunately for the Michigan State Spartans, one of those 8 losses happened last season, when Tom Izzo’s team was upset by Middle Tennessee. The loss particularly stung for the Spartans, as they were a veteran team that was good enough, at least on paper, to cut down the nets at the end of it all. In fact, Michigan State’s loss helped open the door for 10th-seeded Syracuse to make an improbable Final Four run. Purdue (5 seed) joined Michigan State as a first round upset loser, while two other Big Ten teams that got 5 seeds (Maryland and Indiana) advanced to the Sweet 16, along with 7 seed Wisconsin thanks to a last second win over 2-seed Xavier in the Round of 32. Iowa (7 seed) lost in the Round of 32, while Michigan (11 seed) won a First Four game before falling in the Round of 64. The most disappointing thing about the Big Ten last season was that the conference was done playing by the time the Elite Eight rolled around. The second most disappointing thing may have been the under-performance of the Ohio State Buckeyes, a team with high preseason expectations that ended up in the NIT.
This year, the Big Ten has a very good chance to advance deeper than the Sweet 16, as Purdue, Indiana and Michigan State are all poised to return to the Big Dance, and Illinois and Ohio State both have chances to rebound off of last season’s disappointments. A few other teams, notably including Maryland and Michigan, will be contending for tournament spots as well. However, the conference’s top story starts and ends in Madison, Wisconsin, where Greg Gard starts his first full season as head coach of the Badgers after Bo Ryan’s mid-season retirement last December. The Badgers, who struggled early in the year, came on strong down the stretch, turning an 1-4 Big Ten conference start into a 12-6 record and the eventual Sweet 16 berth. Every player of note returns from last season’s squad, giving the Badgers a ton of veteran leadership. Not only is Wisconsin the preseason favorite to capture the league title, it would not be a shock at all to see them playing on the final weekend in Glendale, Arizona at the Final Four.
Predicted Order of Finish
1. Wisconsin – Virtually everyone is back from last year’s Sweet 16 team. Nigel Hayes and Ethan Happ will lead the way in the frontcourt, while Zak Showalter and Bronson Koenig help form a lethal backcourt (just ask Xavier fans). This team could go very far.
2. Purdue – The point guard position will get some help with the addition of Michigan transfer Spike Albrecht. The returnees in the frontcourt, however, will be the true standouts as Vincent Edwards, Caleb Swanigan and Isaac Hayes should all be major factors.
3. Indiana – Yogi Ferrell may be gone, but James Blackmon, Jr. is back healthy and Thomas Bryant passed on the NBA Draft to return for one more season. They key to how well the Hoosiers perform could be Pittsburgh transfer point guard Josh Newkirk.
4. Michigan State – The Spartans lost a ton of scoring, but look for Eron Harris to become a standout player and Miles Bridges to lead one of the nation’s strongest freshman recruiting classes. In the end, it is simply impossible to ever count out a Tom Izzo coached team.
5. Illinois – If Tracy Abrams, Malcolm Hill and Leron Black are able to stay healthy, the depth the team built without the three of them last year could really pay off. The real player to watch will, once again, be Malcolm Hill, who has the ability to lead the team in almost every stat category that is out there, but hopefully will not have to do so again.
6. Ohio State – Only JaQuan Lyle returns from last year’s highly ranked five-man freshman recruiting class (the other four all having transferred). The good news is that forward Jae’Sean Tate and guards Keita Bates-Diop and Marc Loving are back. In the end, this season could end up being one of addition by subtraction.
7. Maryland – The Terps lost four double-digit scorers off of last year’s team, but they will remain dangerous this year due to the return of Melo Tremble. Tremble’s stats went down last season from his freshman form, but if he is able to get his numbers back up, Maryland’s name could very well be called on Selection Sunday. Keep an eye on freshman forward Justin Jackson as well.
8. Michigan – The five players that were starting for the Wolverines at the end of last season are all back, though star Caris LeVert, who was injured at the end, is gone. This team’s success will depend on the play of Derrick Walton, Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman and Zak Irvin. Freshman small forward Xavier Simpson could be the key to pushing them into the conference’s upper division.
9. Penn State – The Nittany Lions have a young roster featuring a pair of key Philadelphia recruits in guard Tony Carr and forward Lamar Stevens. Junior Shep Garner may be the team’s top player this year, but as the young guys gain experience, Big Ten foes will need to watch out. Next year could be a very good one in Happy Valley.
10. Iowa – Peter Jok has a chance to star for the Hawkeyes, but almost everyone else from last year’s NCAA Tournament team is gone. Head coach Fran McCaffery has brought in a solid freshman recruiting class led by Tyler Cook, but this year looks to be a rebuilding one.
11. Northwestern – The combination of Bryant McIntosh at guard and a healthy Vic Law at small forward will keep the Wildcats competitive, but there doesn’t seem to be quite enough here for them to get that first-ever invite to the Big Dance.
12. Minnesota – It is hard to pick this team too high given that they only won 8 games last season, but there are a few solid pieces including freshman guard Amir Coffey, Milwaukee transfer Akeem Springs and returnees Nate Mason and Jordan Murphy.
13. Rutgers – New head coach Steve Pikiell does have a few solid pieces in place to start the rebuild in New Jersey, led by guards Corey Sanders, Mike Williams and Kansas State transfer Nigel Johnson.
14. Nebraska – This looks like a long season for Tim Miles’ team, especially after Andrew White III decided to transfer to Syracuse. In order to have any success, the Huskers will need to rely heavily on guards Tai Webster and Glynn Watson, Jr.
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