Conference Preview: West Coast

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WEST COAST

Mark Few has coached Gonzaga for 17 years heading into this season, and never failed to qualify for the NCAA Tournament.  In fact, counting Dan Monson’s final year at the helm, the Zags have now made 18 straight trips to the Big Dance.  No one else in the conference can even sniff that type of success.  Two other teams, however, have accounted for the majority of the conference’s successes outside of Spokane.  St. Mary’s and BYU are the only other WCC teams to earn NCAA bids since 2008, and the only other two teams to even play in a WCC Championship game in that time!  (Pacific did go to the NCAA Tournament in 2013, but they were a member of the Big West then).  Last season, though the Zags were a bubble team heading into Championship Week, Mark Few’s team won the league’s automatic bid, got an 11 seed, and promptly advanced to the Sweet 16 with wins over Seton Hall and Utah, before losing to Syracuse by 3 points in regional semifinal.  BYU and St. Mary’s both made the NIT with the Cougars advancing to the semifinals in that event.  As for the rest of the conference . . . Pepperdine played in the CBI, and everyone else started their offseason early.

This year, we expect much of the same as Gonzaga, St Mary’s and BYU look to be the class of the conference again and all three could be vying for NCAA Tournament bids.  However, the offseason has shown us that the rest of the conference seems to be done being a bunch of lapdogs.  The biggest offseason move came from Santa Clara, a program whose athletic department wants them to become Top 25 caliber, and certainly made the right first move bringing in new head coach Herb Sendek, former conference coach of the year in both the ACC and Pac-12.  Big coaching moves were also made by San Francisco, bringing in Kyle Smith, a guy with lots of WCC ties and who engineered a remarkable turnaround the last few years on the east coast with Columbia.  Pacific and Portland both brought in head coaches with known names and NBA ties – Damon Stoudamire at Pacific and Terry Porter at Portland.  Although it may take a few years for these programs to elevate themselves, the days of the West Coast Conference being a three team league appear to be nearing their end.

Predicted Order of Finish

1. Gonzaga – Despite struggling at times last season and then losing a majority of their scoring in the offseason, Mark Few has completely reloaded this team and they should be even better than last time around.  Nigel Williams-Goss (Washington) and Jordan Mathews (California) are the key newcomers, transferring in from Pac-12 schools and possibly forming one of the best backcourt pairings in the nation.  Down low, the key will be just how healthy Przemek Karnowski is as he returns from last year’s season-ending back injury.  He will get help though, notably from another transfer from a power conference – Johnathan Williams III from Missouri.

2. St. Mary’s – Almost everyone on the roster returns from last season’s squad that won 29 games and led the nation in shooting percentage.  The Gaels non-conference schedule was the biggest reason for their exclusion from last year’s Tournament, and they have upgraded it this year with non-conference trips out of the State of California to play Dayton and UAB, plus a road trip to Stanford.  All signs point to a very good year.

3. BYU – The Cougars may be without several very important pieces from last season, most notably Kyle Collingsworth, but Nick Emery and Kyle Davis do return and will be joined by Eric Mike and T.J. Haws (Tyler’s brother) who have both returned from missions.  A key factor could be the play of Elon transfer guard Elijah Bryant, the CAA Rookie of the Year two seasons ago.

4. Santa Clara – Herb Sendek takes over a program committed to closing the gap with the top three teams, and has assembled a squad that could be a dark horse candidate to do that as early as this season.  All five starters do return for the Broncos from last season, led by senior Jared Brownridge who should surpass the 2000 career points scored mark this year.

5. Pepperdine – Two of the team’s top three scorers from last season are gone.  It will be tough for Lamond Murray, Jr. to carry that much scoring weight, and there do not appear to be enough other pieces here to make any serious noise.

6. Loyola Marymount – Adom Jocko’s decision to turn pro after last season hurt, but the Lions will at least remain competitive with Brandon Brown, Shamar Johnson and Steven Haney, Jr. back.

7. San Francisco – Ronnie Boyce III is the only double digit scorer returning for new head coach Kyle Smith.  Smith, who coached at Columbia the past few years, has WCC ties, having been an assistant at both San Diego and St. Mary’s.  His first team in the City by the Bay is a very young one, so don’t expect much this season.

8. Portland – Terry Porter is a big name coaching hire, but the team he takes over lost 20 games last season and probably won’t be much better than that this one.

9. Pacific – Another new head coach with a known name takes over, as Damon Stoudamire gets the call in Stockton.  The athletic department is committed to improving the basketball program, but it will take time.

10. San Diego – Lamont Smith is still cleaning house and continuing his rebuild of the Toreros program. This year will be a long one – maybe a very long one.