Bracket Projections: Nov 21st

Below is our most recent Bracket Projections, and I know it looks crazy.  This is not a forecast of the future, but rather a CHECKPOINT of CURRENT MERIT.  It is not even a reflection of how good I think the teams currently are, but merely what they’ve done on the court.  Nothing more, nothing less.

I believe teams like Louisville, Wisconsin, Purdue, Michigan State, Wichita State, and Iowa State are much better than where they fall on the seed list, but again, I’m not evaluating how good I think the teams are or will end up being.  I’m only assessing what they have done up to this point, and if a team has done nothing more than win buy games at home, then they will not be high in the rankings.

Conversely, while I’m impressed with what teams like Arkansas State, Ohio U, and Tennessee State have done up to this point, I do not believe they will end up on the #5 line when March gets here.  If you want predictions of what people think things will look like in March then this is not your bracket.  This is merely a checkpoint of current merit.  The reason I do it this way is because, well, I like doing it this way, and because it allows me to better evaluate the teams as the season progresses.

Another oddity that only bracket junkies will pick up on is that we have First Four games on the #15 line.  Well, that’s just how it worked out.  It’s early.  It’s the equivalent of an April batting average.  Things look kind of odd right now.

Below is the seed list and the notes on each team.  Below that is the bracket.

1. VILLANOVA. 5-0. Wins @ Purdue and vs UCF
2. INDIANA. 3-0. Neutral win vs Kansas
3. KANSAS. 2-1. Win vs Duke
4. DUKE. 4-1. No bad losses. Win against Rhode Island
5. SAINT MARY’S. 3-0. Road win @ Dayton, home win vs Nevada
6. Michigan. 4-0 with convincing neutral floor wins vs Marquette and SMU
7. KENTUCKY. 4-0. Blowout neutral win vs Michigan State
8. Creighton. 4-0, home win vs Wisconsin, neutral win vs NC State
9. ARIZONA. 3-0. Neutral win vs Michigan State
10. Xavier. 5-0. Neutral floor wins vs Clemson and Northern Iowa
11. RHODE ISLAND. 3-1, neutral win vs Cincinnati
12. Baylor. 3-0. Home win vs Oregon
13. Virginia. 3-0. Blowout home win v Yale, road win @ UNCG
14. North Carolina. 4-0. 2 road wins
15. Usc. 3-0. Win @ Texas A&M
16. DAYTON. 2-1. Win @ Alabama
17. Seton Hall. 3-0, win @ Iowa
18. SMU. 3-1. Neutral win vs Pitt
19. OHIO. 3-0. Win @ Georgia Tech and blowout win against Sam Houston.
20. ARKANSAS STATE. 3-1. All road/neutral wins. @ Georgetown, vs Chattanooga
21. TENNESSEE STATE. 4-0. All wins coming away from home, including @ Middle Tennessee
22. NORTHERN IOWA. 3-1. Neutral wins vs Arizona State and Oklahoma
23. Oklahoma. 3-1. Neutral win vs Clemson
24. Clemson. 2-2. Home win vs Georgia, neutral win vs Davidson
25. YALE. 2-1. Win @ Washington
26. UTAH STATE. 3-0. Win @ UC Irvine
27. Oregon. 2-1. Most notable win is home v Valpo
28. NORTH DAKOTA STATE. 3-1. 2 road/neutral wins
29. UNC WILMINGTON. 2-0. Nice wins at Eastern Kentucky and home vs ETSU
30. Syracuse. 3-0. All home buy games, but a nice win against Monmouth
31. Gonzaga. 3-0, best win is at home vs San Diego State
32. OLD DOMINION. 2-0. Win @ Richmond
33. Florida. 3-0. Best win is at home vs Saint Bonaventure
34. Louisville. 3-0. All home buy games
35. Wisconsin. 2-1 with 2 home buy wins
36. Purdue. 2-1, two home buy wins
37. West Virginia. 3-0, all home buy games
38. Miami FL. 3-0, all home buy games
39. Ucla. 4-0, all home buy wins
40. Cincinnati. 3-1, best win is neutral vs Penn State
41. Butler. 3-0. Best win is at home vs Northwestern
42. Maryland. 4-0. Best win is home vs Georgetown
43. Florida State. 4-0, all home buy games. Best wins vs Iona and Winthrop
44. Michigan State. 2-2. No bad losses, but only has 2 home buy wins
45. Pittsburgh. 3-1. Neutral win vs Marquette
46. Byu. 3-0, home win vs Princeton
47. Marquette. 2-2, best win vs Vanderbilt
48. Wake Forest. 4-1. Road win @ Charleston, neutral win vs UTEP
49. Davidson. 3-1. Neutral wins vs Missouri and Arizona State
50. Mississippi. 4-0. Neutral wins vs Saint Joe’s and Oral Roberts
51. Wichita State. 4-0, but opponents are a combined 1-12
52. CHATTANOOGA. 2-2. Win @ Tennessee, loss vs Arkansas State
53. Iowa State. 3-0, all home buy wins
54. UNC ASHEVILLE. 2-2. Neutral win vs Siena
55. FAIRFIELD. 3-0. 2 road wins, one @ Wagner
56. ALBANY. 2-2. Win at Penn State
57. Ohio State. 3-0, win @ Navy
58. South Carolina. 4-0, home win vs Monmouth
59. Texas A&M. 2-1, both home buy wins
60. Notre Dame. 3-0, all home buy wins
61. Vcu. 3-0, all home buy wins
62. Virginia Tech. 3-0, all home buy wins
63. Texas. 3-0, all home buy wins
64. Colorado. 3-0, all home buy wins
65. Iowa. 3-1, all wins are home buy games
66. Georgia. 2-1, 2 home buy wins
67. Texas Tech. 3-0, all home buy wins
68. Kansas State. 3-0, all home buy wins
69. California. 2-0, all home buy wins
70. Oklahoma State. 3-0. All home buy wins
71. Arkansas. 3-0, all home buy wins
72. UC IRVINE. 2-2 with no bad losses.
73. TEXAS SOUTHERN. 3-1, all road wins
74. JACKSONVILLE. 3 wins away from home
75. NC State. 3-1, best win is neutral vs Montana
76. Illinois. 4-0. All home buy wins
77. Minnesota. 4-0. Best win is home vs Saint John’s
78. Nebraska. 3-0. All home buy wins
79. New Mexico. 3-0. Best win at home vs New Mexico State
80. Utah. 3-0, just one div1 win
81. San Diego State. Just 1 div1 win, and it’s a home buy game
82. UMKC. 3-1. Neutral win vs Murray State
83. Lsu. 3-0. All home buy wins
84. WRIGHT STATE. 2-1. We still like Valpo, but they’ve yet to beat a team that’s won a game
85. BOSTON U. 3-1
86. SAM HOUSTON STATE. 2-1
87. LONG ISLAND. 2-2
88. MONTANA STATE. 2 wins, both against winless teams
89. NC CENTRAL. 2-2