Bracketology 2017: March Madness Predictions (Version 3.0)

We are only 8 weeks away from Selection Sunday as we continue to make our NCAA tourney predictions. Last March HoopsHD’s Jon Teitel correctly picked 65 of the 68 teams that made the tourney, each of which was within 1 spot of their actual seed, including 37 right on the money. He will spend the upcoming months predicting which 68 teams will hear their names called on Selection Sunday. See below for his list of who would make the cut if they picked the field today and let us know if you agree or disagree in the comments section. To see how we stack up with other websites (ranked 3rd out of 88 entries over the past 3 years), check out: www.bracketmatrix.com

SEED: TEAM (CONFERENCE)
1: Villanova (Big East)
1: Kansas (Big 12)
1: Baylor (Big 12)
1: Kentucky (SEC)

2: Gonzaga (WCC)
2: UCLA (Pac-12)
2: Creighton (Big East)
2: Florida State (ACC)

3: Louisville (ACC)
3: Duke (ACC)
3: Butler (Big East)
3: North Carolina (ACC)

4: West Virginia (Big 12)
4: Oregon (Pac-12)
4: Virginia (ACC)
4: Florida (SEC)

5: Arizona (Pac-12)
5: Xavier (Big East)
5: Notre Dame (ACC)
5: Minnesota (Big 10)

6: Cincinnati (AAC)
6: Purdue (Big 10)
6: Wisconsin (Big 10)
6: St. Mary’s (WCC)

7: Maryland (Big 10)
7: SMU (AAC)
7: Clemson (ACC)
7: Virginia Tech (ACC)

8: USC (Pac-12)
8: South Carolina (SEC)
8: Michigan State (Big 10)
8: Indiana (Big 10)

9: Northwestern (Big 10)
9: Pitt (ACC)
9: Dayton (A-10)
9: VCU (A-10)

10: TCU (Big 12)
10: Seton Hall (Big East)
10: Iowa State (Big 12)
10: Arkansas (SEC)

11: Miami FL (ACC)
11: Texas Tech (Big 12)
11: Kansas State (Big 12)
11: Wichita State (MVC)
11: Rhode Island (A-10)
11: Illinois (Big 10)

12: Middle Tennessee (CUSA)
12: UNC-Wilmington (CAA)
12: Boise State (MWC)
12: Texas-Arlington (Sun Belt)

13: Oakland (Horizon)
13: Akron (MAC)
13: Chattanooga (SoCon)
13: Monmouth (MAAC)

14: New Mexico State (WAC)
14: Vermont (America East)
14: Florida Gulf Coast (Atlantic Sun)
14: Princeton (Ivy)

15: Belmont (OVC)
15: Bucknell (Patriot)
15: North Dakota State (Summit)
15: UNC-Asheville (Big South)

16: Texas Southern (SWAC)
16: Weber State (Big Sky)
16: New Orleans (Southland)
16: NC Central (MEAC)
16: UC Irvine (Big West)
16: Mount St. Mary’s (NEC)

COMMENTS FROM DAVID

-First and foremost, it is important to note that Jon Teitel is guessing the committee.  So, this isn’t what he thinks it should look like.  This is what he thinks other people will think it should look like.  I can proudly say that Jon Teitel is better at guessing what the actual selection committee will think than anyone I’ve ever met, and probably anyone that you’ve ever met because there just aren’t but one or two people on the planet that are better at guessing the committee than he is.  Saying that there are one or two people out there who can do it better is actually a very conservative estimate.  He got 65 out of 68 teams last year seeded correctly or within one line of it.  I mean….that’s amazing.  So, these comments are not critical of him.  They are critical of the people that he is guessing.

-Rhode Island.  Ho-Ly-CRAP!!!!  I don’t know what it is that Jon Teitel thinks will impress the committee about them.  Is it that they have just one true road win and that it’s against Saint Louis??  Is it that of their 11 overall wins, 7 were in home buy games?? (granted one of them was against Belmont who is an OVC frontrunner, but that still rates at best as a notable buy game (if there even is such a thing)).  They have a notable win against Cincinnati on a neutral floor, and that definitely is a good win, but it’s a singular win that’s basically an outlier on a profile that is otherwise nothing more than home buy wins.

The committee did a couple of stupid things last year, and Jon Teitel correctly projected much of it.  Because of that, I’m inclined to believe that they’re considering Rhode Island.

-And…I’m not that big on Arkansas either.  They’re 13-4.  Of their 13 wins, 9 were home buy games.  Two more were home wins against Houston and Texas.  Houston may be good, but they’re a fringe bubble team at best and not the kind of team that a solid tournament team would struggle with at home.  Texas is not even an NIT team right now.  Another win was at home against Missouri.  So, when it comes to winning games that rise above the level of not mattering to the NIT, they’ve won one game.  At Tennessee.  It’s a decent win, but that’s their entire profile.  None of their other wins set them apart from anything that an NIT team would be capable of doing.

-I’ve been critical of TCU, but I’m starting to warm up to the idea that they should be considered.  Since their schedule increased in difficulty, they’ve started to add some meat to their profile.  They’ve won at Texas and at home against Iowa State.  Those aren’t great wins, but they are at least decent, and they certainly rise above the level of a home buy win, which is all Arkansas and Rhody seem to have.

I still think teams like Middle Tennessee and UNC Wilmington, who Jon is guessing are outside the bubble are better than Arkansas, TCU, and Rhody.  Not only that, I think their paper is better.  The games they’ve won are harder to win than the games TCU, Rhody, and Arkansas have won.  Yet, Jon is guessing they’d be on the #12 line if the season ended today.  And….he’s probably right.  He is right about pretty much everything when it comes to guessing what the committee will do.  It’s the committee that would be wrong.