David Griggs’s Bracket Projections: February 13th

For Chad Sherwood’s UTR Game of the Day between Furman and VMI – CLICK HERE.

For Jon Teitel’s weekly bracket where he guesses the NCAA Selection Committee – CLICK HERE.

Below is my own personal bracket of what I think the field should look like if the season ended today.  I am not trying to guess the committee.  Jon Teitel does that, and you can see his projections on our Bracketology Page by clicking on the tab at the top of the screen.  This is merely what the field would look like if I were made king for the day.

Below are my comments explaining why I made the ingenious selections and seedings that I did.  They really are brilliant, and it is good that I am here to provide such masterful projections.  Below that are comments from the rest of the staff.  If their comments are in agreement with what I have done, then they are correct.  If their comments disagree with what I’ve done, then they are COMPLETELY WRONG AND SHOULD BE DISREGARDED!!

Bracket was completed on Sunday, February 12th at 11pm, est, and does not reflect any games played after that point

DAVID’S NOTES

-I’m going to start off by saying that Indiana, Auburn, Georgia Tech, and Illinois State all have incredibly weak cases for bids.  But having said that these are the teams that I looked at who I did not take, and all of them have cases that are even worse: Clemson, Arkansas, Wake Forest, Ohio State, Alabama, Houston, Rhode Island, Seton Hall, Tennessee, and Nevada.

So, when compared to that, at least Indiana and Georgia Tech have some notable wins on their profile.  Auburn is 5-4 in true road games including a win at TCU, and although they do have one horrible loss, Arkansas has an even worse loss and lack a win like the one Auburn has at TCU.  Clemson has a lot of close losses and I almost took them, but a team that is six games below .500 in league play is categorically not a realistic candidate.

So much for the bottom of the bracket…

-Gonzaga is my overall #1 seed.  They don’t have the paper that the other #1 seeds have and have no way of improving it, but I am convinced they are the best team in the country.  It really doesn’t matter because none of the #1 seeds are really in each other’s way, so no matter what the order is Gonzaga’s going to the West, Kansas is going to the Midwest, Baylor is going to the South, and Nova is going to the East.

-Northwestern’s win at Wisconsin has changed the entire complexion of their profile.  Teams need road wins, and teams need quality wins.  Road wins against good teams cover both bases.  I think that win alone moves them up because for the most part they’ve held serve and avoided bad losses.

-Oklahoma State, Kansas State, and Iowa State all have one really solid win and I suppose a case could be made that they should be higher, but despite that one big win I like the teams I have ahead of them more.

-I know this doesn’t matter, but how much fun would Indianapolis be for the Rounds of 64 and 32?  Butler, Notre Dame, Louisville, Cincinnati, and potentially Indiana would all be there!

-Lastly, I do have Middle Tennessee inside my bubble, but that’s as it is now.  Unfortunately losing in the conference tournament adds another bad loss to their profile, and that alone would likely knock them outside the bubble.

COMMENTS FORM CHAD

– I for one actually completely understand why the real committee had the Zags #4 overall and think a strong argument can be made that they deserve nothing more than that.  It comes down to the conference they play in and the fact that this weekend’s win at St Mary’s was and will be their best true road win all season.  The only reason to have them #1 overall is being undefeated — if they had played a game at any of the other 1 seeds this year and lost it (which I believe they would), the Zags would be #4 overall at best.

– David has been over-ranking UCLA all season which is why I find it funny that I think he has them under-rated this week on the 5 line.  I know the win was at home, but they beat Oregon.  I think the Bruins belong on the 4 line over a Wisconsin team that lost at home yesterday to Northwestern.

– I also actually like Xavier a couple of seed lines better than an 8.  The Musketeers may be lacking a true signature win, but other than the loss at Colorado, their other 6 losses have all come against teams in the top 17 of the RPI and rated above them in David’s bracket.

– I don’t know where to start with the First Four.  Well, actually I agree that Georgia Tech probably belongs in and Indiana’s big wins early in the season still merit having them being close to the field (they would have been my first team out).  I personally ranked my top 15 teams that are not in the bracket right now.  Auburn came in 14th on that list.  Illinois State came in 15th.  David left Marquette out entirely and apparently did not even consider them.  I hope this was just an oversight by him because I would have them above the First Four and on the 10 line.  I would also still have Seton Hall in.  When everyone loses, the team that was best last week remains best this week.  Other teams that I would have above his atrocious picks of Auburn and Illinois State are Houston, Utah, Clemson, Alabama, Rhode Island, Georgetown, Pitt, Tennessee, Arkansas, Ohio State, Providence, Wake Forest and Texas Tech.  I will not defend any of those teams because quite honestly I can’t — they all make me a little queasy.  But I will attack David’s picks:

– Auburn.  RPI of 66.  KenPom of 76.  Sub-.500 in an SEC that may be a three bid league.  Only win against the field was at TCU, an 11 seed.  Swept by Ole Miss, losses to non-tourney Georgia and Vanderbilt teams, and a horrible loss to Boston College.  GET THEM OUT!

– Illinois State.  If you wanted to make a lame argument that they are your MVC auto-bid winner and Wichita State is an at-large choice, I could live with it.  But David put them in first First Four, meaning they are an at-large team.  Their RPI is healthy at 34, but our colleague Joby has them at 70 in his Nitty Gritty ratings and the BPI has them at 60.  No Top 50 wins.  Only win against the field was a home win over Wichita State (a team that would have no wins against the field if Illinois State does not qualify).  Losses to Tulsa, San Francisco and Murray State.  GET THEM OUT!

COMMENTS FROM JOHN

– I’ve said it before, but I think we’re going to eventually be all over the place as it comes to Butler at this rate. They have a lot of quality wins (home and away) against teams likely to be in the field and even 2nd-level wins against possible NIT (and other postseason) teams. Winning at Marquette is a win that a 3-seed should get. However, losing at Providence does add another iffy loss to the profile (although that’s not as offensive as losing to St. John’s was earlier this season).

– I would have temporarily taken Wisconsin out of a protected seed (though not necessarily out of a Milwaukee pod) after losing at home to Northwestern. Not so much because of the loss, but because UCLA does deserve to move back up after adding a win against Oregon to their profile.

– Xavier is another team with another injury to monitor. We know about Sumner, but now Trevon Bluiett has to be monitored because of his ankle sprain. He aggravated the ankle in a loss to Villanova and his play was very limited. I believe he’s day-to-day, but the Musketeers are about to enter a crucial 3-game road swing at Providence, Marquette and Seton Hall. Nonetheless, Xavier (for the most part) has played well against teams outside of the Top 25 this season. I still think it’s too early to knock them down to an 8-seed, but I do see the Puppet’s agenda of renewing Xavier-Dayton.

– At some point you also have to consider that teams like SMU are better than just an 8 seed. Like Cincinnati, they’re running through a conference that has had a lot of parity this year. I had higher hopes for Memphis and Houston, but they’ve been unable to separate themselves like UC and SMU have in the American. Even losing at Boise State isn’t as offensive as I originally thought it would be, and beating TCU at home suddenly gives the Ponies some meat on their profile along with the UC win.

– I also said that Virginia Tech had a lot of work to do to remain in this field. Was the Puppet aware they actually beat Virginia? I know he thinks teams should be penalized for wearing a darker jersey at home, but that’s still a good win they desperately needed.

– Despite what Chad says, I agree 100% with the Puppet on Illinois State being in this field. They have not had any hangover since the Wichita State loss, and as teams like Belmont, UNC-Wilmington and Akron have shown in recent weeks, it is very hard to run the table in conference play. However, their finish won’t be easy – games at home against Loyola and Southern Illinois and road games at Missouri State and a hot Northern Iowa team are not gimmies. Gotta run the table in these 4 to stay in the field, and even that might not be enough if teams below them on the cut line wake up.

– Auburn. (sigh) Yes, they won at TCU. HOWEVER, they also had the misfortune of losing to Boston College on a neutral floor. It can be overcome, but there’s too much work remaining to be done to merit serious bubble consideration. I’ve heard Ohio State thrown around in some bracketology circles, but they need to win at Michigan State and at home against Wisconsin to make up for lost time (and cover the scarlet L that Florida Atlantic hung on their profile).

– As for the UTR portion of the bracket, it looked like the Puppet has abandoned any pretense of taking the best overall team and just gone with conference leaders at this point. But in fairness to Cal State-Bakersfield, New Orleans and Furman, they have played better of late (especially the red-hot Paladins in the SoCon). Our old Team of the People knocked New Mexico State out of the field for now, but I have a hard time seeing them winning at the work of art that is Bakersfield later in the season.

FINAL COMMENT FROM DAVID

-I don’t feel that it is fair to not let the staff have the last word, but I did forget to mention something that meant to mention and that Chad addressed.  Like Clemson, Marquette was “categorically disqualified.”  They are not in the RPI top 80, they have a losing record on the road, and they have a losing record in conference.  That has simply never happened before.  In fact the only teams I can think of who finished outside the RPI top 70 and landed inside the bubble all had winning conference records and winning records on the road.  I know I’m being hypocritical because I always say you shouldn’t look at things categorically, but having said that, I still did it!  SUE ME!!   (NOTE FROM CHAD: All the same applies to Indiana.  David has them in.  FRAUD!!!)