-Conference Tournaments begin tonight!! HAPPY MARCH MADNESS EVERYBODY!! In…well…late February. That means the first of our nightly Championship Week Video Notebooks has been posted. CLICK HERE to check it out. (Note: Don’t forget to tweet at @csherwood_1973, @DavidGPuppet or @jstalica78 for questions tonight and during Championship Week!)
-For Chad Sherwood’s UTR Game of the Day, which has first place (and therefore potential NIT) implications in the SoCon – CLICK HERE
-For the rest of the news and notes and a look at tonight’s games – CLICK HERE
With a number of the smaller conferences completing play in the regular season, we are about to begin a fortnight of games colloquially known as Championship Week. Below is the bracket according to staff member John Stalica for games through Sunday, February 26:
JOHN’S NOTES ON THE BRACKET
– While there was some disagreement on our last podcast as to the order of Gonzaga and Villanova, that was before the Zags lost their regular season finale at home against BYU. This will set off some further disagreements among other panelists, but I still feel Gonzaga has more than enough good things on their profile to remain on the 1-line. Beating Arizona away from home is going to carry a lot of weight (although it was pre-Alonzo Trier), and their wins against Florida and Iowa State get bigger and bigger. Oregon started a little slower this season (albeit with an injury to Dillon Brooks), but they will have opportunities to get onto the coveted 1-line themselves depending on how they do in the Pac-12 Tournament in a couple of weeks.
– The Butler did it. Again. They had a superb week on the road where they completed regular-season sweeps of both Villanova and Xavier. They lead the nation with an astounding 12 wins against the current NCAA field, and they have done so at home, on neutral courts and on the road. This keeps them a cut above teams like UCLA and Arizona for now.
– While Kentucky now has the SEC lead and a fairly comfortable protected seed, I think they’re a hair below Florida State right now. While UK has a monster win against North Carolina to their credit, the Seminoles also have lots of wins against the cream of the crop as well (including big road wins at Virginia and Miami). That’s better than winning at Vanderbilt and against Michigan State on a neutral court (for now).
– Miami, Wichita State and Michigan are rising fast on my seed list. Teams like Xavier, Northwestern and USC are dropping like stones. Xavier would have been a 10 seed if not for USC being “distracted” at Arizona State. Xavier really needs to beat Marquette at home to feel safe, and absolutely must beat DePaul to remain on the at-large board. USC needs to sweep the Apple Cup schools at home and Northwestern could use at least one more win at home against either a hot Michigan team or the B1G leader Purdue.
– Teams I have as auto-bids (based on top seeds in their respective conference tournaments) include Illinois State, Oakland, Winthrop and South Dakota. Houston and Vandy would be my last two teams in the field, but Houston and California were flip-flopped in the First Four matchups because of bracketing rules.
– Why Houston? They have a few wins of note that include South Dakota and Vermont in the Gulf Coast Showcase (no really, they beat South Dakota in the semis and Vermont on a last-second shot!), beat fellow bubbler Rhode Island, and are a very respectable 11-5 in the American. Their only losses that make me want to pull my eyes out are to Harvard at home and at LSU. That’s still better than losing to La Salle and Fordham at home (sorry, Rhody).
– Why Vandy? #1 noncon schedule in the country, they have beaten 2 out of the top 4 SEC teams on the road (Florida and Arkansas), another at home (South Carolina) and another regular season conference champ in Belmont. They also did us a favor by knocking Tennessee out of serious contention with their win at Knoxville earlier in the week. HOWEVER, they either need to win at Kentucky or against Florida at home to have a legitimate shot at being at this same checkpoint on Selection Sunday.
– With that, I now yield the floor to Mr. Chad Sherwood and his Puppet sidekick.
COMMENTS FROM CHAD
– I will start on the 2 line and the battle for the highest seed among the Pac-12 teams, which would bring with it a spot in the West Region. John is giving that position and a 2 seed to Oregon. I agree that Oregon belongs on the 2 line. I disagree that they are #5 overall, because another Pa-12 team belongs ahead of them. There are two teams in the entire nation with three or more wins against RPI Top 10 teams and two of those winning coming in true road games. One is Kansas, which John mistakenly has as #2 overall when they should be the #1 overall team. The other is UCLA. I would have the Bruins #5 overall after winning at Arizona this weekend.
– I also don’t quite understand West Virginia on the 3 line. I think the Mountaineers may be falling out of the protected seed (1-4 lines) range. Yes, they have beaten both Baylor and Kansas, but they now also have four losses to teams that will not make this field. That is a lot for a protected seed. I could live with them on the 4 line, just not the 3.
– Miami is a team I think John has undervalued as an 8. The ‘canes have won 6 of 7 games and are one of the hottest teams in the ACC. They just won at Virginia and beat Duke at home this week. I could easily see them coming in two lines higher, especially given the conference they are playing in. They play at Va Tech and at Florida State this week, so they will definitely have the chances to further prove themselves.
– I can live with Vanderbilt in the field, though I am not certain they belong. I can live with Rhode Island not in his field, as they would have been my pick over Vandy for the last spot, in what would have been nothing more than a coin flip. I do not understand leaving Syracuse out at this point though. If you are going to take a team with a ton of losses, such as Vanderbilt, why not take a team with the same number of losses and wins over Miami, Florida State, Virginia and Duke? I know that the Orange don’t have a win as good as Vanderbilt’s win at Florida, but you cannot just ignore those wins for Syracuse just because they all came at home.
– I think a case can be made that Texas-Arlington should is on the bubble and in contention for an at-large bid. I do not think that similar cases can be made for Vermont or Monmouth. Yet, John has the later two as 12 seeds and the former as a 13. It is just a mistake and was apparently made because he likes being wrong.
– Speaking of being wrong, I saved the best for last. I believe there are ten or more teams that John did not put in his field that have cases for tournament bids. In addition to Syracuse and Rhode Island, that list would include Illinois, Kansas State, Wake Forest, Ole Miss, Indiana, Iowa, TCU, Georgia and Georgia Tech. One team that does not even belong on that list, yet alone in the field, is Houston. I have to only assume that he was trying to make a joke by including them. The Cougars beat Vermont. Vermont is not an at-large caliber team, and as John noted, they needed a miracle shot to win that game. They beat South Dakota. Oral Roberts, UMKC, Omaha and Portland have all beaten South Dakota. There are teams that won’t even make the NIT that would beat South Dakota. No offense to the Coyotes who are having an amazing year, but beating them should not be a basis for an at-large bid. If Houston wins Thursday night at Cincinnati, I will be happy to discuss them as a bubble team. Until then, the only way they are getting anywhere near a bubble is if they pop open a can of soda.
COMMENTS FROM DAVID
-I’ll start off by agreeing with not selecting Syracuse. Syracuse’s next road win against a team with an overall winning record will be their first, and their next road win of any kind will be just their third. They do have some notable wins at home over Florida State, Duke, Virginia, and Miami FL. Well, let’s just look at how good those wins really are. Duke is 3-5 on the road, Virginia is a much more respectable 7-5 on the road, Florida State is 3-5 on the road, and Miami FL is an even 4-4 on the road. I’m not completely discounting those wins, but I am saying they’re not as great as they appear on the surface. Those four teams are a combined 17-21 in true road games, and only one of them has a winning record in true road games. When that’s all a team has done, and that literally is all Syracuse has done, then that’s not good enough. Away from home, Syracuse is 2-10, and of those ten losses, five came against teams that are nowhere close to the field. It’s unfortunate that the real committee probably wont’ look at it that way, but I’m with John on this one. Syracuse should be out.
-Now, John is crazy for taking Houston, but I think I like Houston more than Syracuse. But still, Houston?? He must have really hit his head in the shower this morning. They’ve beaten Vermont on a neutral floor, and….well, that’s really it. Their resume has about as many credentials on it to make the NCAA Tournament as mine has to be hired by NASA.
-With wins at Baylor and at Kentucky, I just don’t see how you can have anyone other than Kansas as the overall #1 right now. Nova has two really good true road wins, and Kansas has a spectacularly good true road win to go along with a really good true road win.
-I’m not seeing SMU all the way up on the #5 line. They’ve won at Memphis and at Houston who are NIT teams (well, maybe not in John’s world, but in the real world), and that’s about it. Iowa State, Oklahoma State, and even Minnesota, have all outperformed them.
-And Chad already addressed this, and I hate agreeing with Chad just as much as I hate agreeing with John, but how in the hell is UTA all the way down on the #13 line??
JOHN’S RESPONSES
– I probably should have put in teams that would have been my First 4 Out, namely Syracuse, Kansas State, Wake Forest and Georgia Tech. (Next 4 Out: TCU, Texas Tech, Georgia and Illinois)
– Both Chad and the Puppet (I’m shocked he’s not complaining about being Chad’s sidekick) have brought up my placement of Texas-Arlington. It is true that the Mavs have the singular best win of any UTR team with their victory at Saint Mary’s. I don’t think they have enough meat overall to offset 3 iffy Sun Belt losses (Texas State, Troy and Coastal Carolina).
– Contrast that to UNC-Wilmington. 3 losses in the Colonial isn’t much better (Charleston, at William & Mary and at Elon), but they have a few other solid wins to offset that a bit (namely East Tennessee State, a win AT Charleston, and a win at St. Bonaventure).
– When I look at teams like Vermont and Monmouth, they are playing some awesome basketball right now (even if their paper doesn’t reflect that). Compare that to a Monmouth team that stumbled at the end of the regular season last year, and it didn’t really shock me to see them not get called on Selection Sunday. It may only be the America East, but Vermont will get brownie points from me for running the table in conference play.
– #AmericanRising. That is all.
Bracket Projection – Monday, February 27
-Conference Tournaments begin tonight!! HAPPY MARCH MADNESS EVERYBODY!! In…well…late February. That means the first of our nightly Championship Week Video Notebooks has been posted. CLICK HERE to check it out. (Note: Don’t forget to tweet at @csherwood_1973, @DavidGPuppet or @jstalica78 for questions tonight and during Championship Week!)
-For Chad Sherwood’s UTR Game of the Day, which has first place (and therefore potential NIT) implications in the SoCon – CLICK HERE
-For the rest of the news and notes and a look at tonight’s games – CLICK HERE
With a number of the smaller conferences completing play in the regular season, we are about to begin a fortnight of games colloquially known as Championship Week. Below is the bracket according to staff member John Stalica for games through Sunday, February 26:
JOHN’S NOTES ON THE BRACKET
– While there was some disagreement on our last podcast as to the order of Gonzaga and Villanova, that was before the Zags lost their regular season finale at home against BYU. This will set off some further disagreements among other panelists, but I still feel Gonzaga has more than enough good things on their profile to remain on the 1-line. Beating Arizona away from home is going to carry a lot of weight (although it was pre-Alonzo Trier), and their wins against Florida and Iowa State get bigger and bigger. Oregon started a little slower this season (albeit with an injury to Dillon Brooks), but they will have opportunities to get onto the coveted 1-line themselves depending on how they do in the Pac-12 Tournament in a couple of weeks.
– The Butler did it. Again. They had a superb week on the road where they completed regular-season sweeps of both Villanova and Xavier. They lead the nation with an astounding 12 wins against the current NCAA field, and they have done so at home, on neutral courts and on the road. This keeps them a cut above teams like UCLA and Arizona for now.
– While Kentucky now has the SEC lead and a fairly comfortable protected seed, I think they’re a hair below Florida State right now. While UK has a monster win against North Carolina to their credit, the Seminoles also have lots of wins against the cream of the crop as well (including big road wins at Virginia and Miami). That’s better than winning at Vanderbilt and against Michigan State on a neutral court (for now).
– Miami, Wichita State and Michigan are rising fast on my seed list. Teams like Xavier, Northwestern and USC are dropping like stones. Xavier would have been a 10 seed if not for USC being “distracted” at Arizona State. Xavier really needs to beat Marquette at home to feel safe, and absolutely must beat DePaul to remain on the at-large board. USC needs to sweep the Apple Cup schools at home and Northwestern could use at least one more win at home against either a hot Michigan team or the B1G leader Purdue.
– Teams I have as auto-bids (based on top seeds in their respective conference tournaments) include Illinois State, Oakland, Winthrop and South Dakota. Houston and Vandy would be my last two teams in the field, but Houston and California were flip-flopped in the First Four matchups because of bracketing rules.
– Why Houston? They have a few wins of note that include South Dakota and Vermont in the Gulf Coast Showcase (no really, they beat South Dakota in the semis and Vermont on a last-second shot!), beat fellow bubbler Rhode Island, and are a very respectable 11-5 in the American. Their only losses that make me want to pull my eyes out are to Harvard at home and at LSU. That’s still better than losing to La Salle and Fordham at home (sorry, Rhody).
– Why Vandy? #1 noncon schedule in the country, they have beaten 2 out of the top 4 SEC teams on the road (Florida and Arkansas), another at home (South Carolina) and another regular season conference champ in Belmont. They also did us a favor by knocking Tennessee out of serious contention with their win at Knoxville earlier in the week. HOWEVER, they either need to win at Kentucky or against Florida at home to have a legitimate shot at being at this same checkpoint on Selection Sunday.
– With that, I now yield the floor to Mr. Chad Sherwood and his Puppet sidekick.
COMMENTS FROM CHAD
– I will start on the 2 line and the battle for the highest seed among the Pac-12 teams, which would bring with it a spot in the West Region. John is giving that position and a 2 seed to Oregon. I agree that Oregon belongs on the 2 line. I disagree that they are #5 overall, because another Pa-12 team belongs ahead of them. There are two teams in the entire nation with three or more wins against RPI Top 10 teams and two of those winning coming in true road games. One is Kansas, which John mistakenly has as #2 overall when they should be the #1 overall team. The other is UCLA. I would have the Bruins #5 overall after winning at Arizona this weekend.
– I also don’t quite understand West Virginia on the 3 line. I think the Mountaineers may be falling out of the protected seed (1-4 lines) range. Yes, they have beaten both Baylor and Kansas, but they now also have four losses to teams that will not make this field. That is a lot for a protected seed. I could live with them on the 4 line, just not the 3.
– Miami is a team I think John has undervalued as an 8. The ‘canes have won 6 of 7 games and are one of the hottest teams in the ACC. They just won at Virginia and beat Duke at home this week. I could easily see them coming in two lines higher, especially given the conference they are playing in. They play at Va Tech and at Florida State this week, so they will definitely have the chances to further prove themselves.
– I can live with Vanderbilt in the field, though I am not certain they belong. I can live with Rhode Island not in his field, as they would have been my pick over Vandy for the last spot, in what would have been nothing more than a coin flip. I do not understand leaving Syracuse out at this point though. If you are going to take a team with a ton of losses, such as Vanderbilt, why not take a team with the same number of losses and wins over Miami, Florida State, Virginia and Duke? I know that the Orange don’t have a win as good as Vanderbilt’s win at Florida, but you cannot just ignore those wins for Syracuse just because they all came at home.
– I think a case can be made that Texas-Arlington should is on the bubble and in contention for an at-large bid. I do not think that similar cases can be made for Vermont or Monmouth. Yet, John has the later two as 12 seeds and the former as a 13. It is just a mistake and was apparently made because he likes being wrong.
– Speaking of being wrong, I saved the best for last. I believe there are ten or more teams that John did not put in his field that have cases for tournament bids. In addition to Syracuse and Rhode Island, that list would include Illinois, Kansas State, Wake Forest, Ole Miss, Indiana, Iowa, TCU, Georgia and Georgia Tech. One team that does not even belong on that list, yet alone in the field, is Houston. I have to only assume that he was trying to make a joke by including them. The Cougars beat Vermont. Vermont is not an at-large caliber team, and as John noted, they needed a miracle shot to win that game. They beat South Dakota. Oral Roberts, UMKC, Omaha and Portland have all beaten South Dakota. There are teams that won’t even make the NIT that would beat South Dakota. No offense to the Coyotes who are having an amazing year, but beating them should not be a basis for an at-large bid. If Houston wins Thursday night at Cincinnati, I will be happy to discuss them as a bubble team. Until then, the only way they are getting anywhere near a bubble is if they pop open a can of soda.
COMMENTS FROM DAVID
-I’ll start off by agreeing with not selecting Syracuse. Syracuse’s next road win against a team with an overall winning record will be their first, and their next road win of any kind will be just their third. They do have some notable wins at home over Florida State, Duke, Virginia, and Miami FL. Well, let’s just look at how good those wins really are. Duke is 3-5 on the road, Virginia is a much more respectable 7-5 on the road, Florida State is 3-5 on the road, and Miami FL is an even 4-4 on the road. I’m not completely discounting those wins, but I am saying they’re not as great as they appear on the surface. Those four teams are a combined 17-21 in true road games, and only one of them has a winning record in true road games. When that’s all a team has done, and that literally is all Syracuse has done, then that’s not good enough. Away from home, Syracuse is 2-10, and of those ten losses, five came against teams that are nowhere close to the field. It’s unfortunate that the real committee probably wont’ look at it that way, but I’m with John on this one. Syracuse should be out.
-Now, John is crazy for taking Houston, but I think I like Houston more than Syracuse. But still, Houston?? He must have really hit his head in the shower this morning. They’ve beaten Vermont on a neutral floor, and….well, that’s really it. Their resume has about as many credentials on it to make the NCAA Tournament as mine has to be hired by NASA.
-With wins at Baylor and at Kentucky, I just don’t see how you can have anyone other than Kansas as the overall #1 right now. Nova has two really good true road wins, and Kansas has a spectacularly good true road win to go along with a really good true road win.
-I’m not seeing SMU all the way up on the #5 line. They’ve won at Memphis and at Houston who are NIT teams (well, maybe not in John’s world, but in the real world), and that’s about it. Iowa State, Oklahoma State, and even Minnesota, have all outperformed them.
-And Chad already addressed this, and I hate agreeing with Chad just as much as I hate agreeing with John, but how in the hell is UTA all the way down on the #13 line??
JOHN’S RESPONSES
– I probably should have put in teams that would have been my First 4 Out, namely Syracuse, Kansas State, Wake Forest and Georgia Tech. (Next 4 Out: TCU, Texas Tech, Georgia and Illinois)
– Both Chad and the Puppet (I’m shocked he’s not complaining about being Chad’s sidekick) have brought up my placement of Texas-Arlington. It is true that the Mavs have the singular best win of any UTR team with their victory at Saint Mary’s. I don’t think they have enough meat overall to offset 3 iffy Sun Belt losses (Texas State, Troy and Coastal Carolina).
– Contrast that to UNC-Wilmington. 3 losses in the Colonial isn’t much better (Charleston, at William & Mary and at Elon), but they have a few other solid wins to offset that a bit (namely East Tennessee State, a win AT Charleston, and a win at St. Bonaventure).
– When I look at teams like Vermont and Monmouth, they are playing some awesome basketball right now (even if their paper doesn’t reflect that). Compare that to a Monmouth team that stumbled at the end of the regular season last year, and it didn’t really shock me to see them not get called on Selection Sunday. It may only be the America East, but Vermont will get brownie points from me for running the table in conference play.
– #AmericanRising. That is all.