The best week of the year is finally here! This is the reason why we ponder the impact of high-school All-Americans, the importance of having a smart/veteran coach, and exactly how many different “Wildcats” can make the Final 4. For those of you who need some last-minute bracket advice grounded in historical facts/trends, see below. For the rest of you, enjoy the madness!!
TIP #1: No team that lost its opening game in its conference tournament has ever gone on to win the NCAA title that same year.
STRATEGY: The extra few days of rest have not proven helpful in the past so take a long hard look at Baylor/South Carolina before penciling them in as your champ.
TIP #2: Since 1979 only 2 national champions did not have a McDonald’s All-American on their roster (2002 Maryland and 2014 UConn).
STRATEGY: A coach who cannot recruit the best high school players usually fails to win it all so beware of picking Creighton/Oregon to go all the way.
TIP #3: The last coach to win a title in his 1st year as coach at a school was Tubby Smith at Kentucky in 1998.
STRATEGY: History is not on the side of Oklahoma State (Brad Underwood)/SMU (Tim Jankovich).
TIP #4: Since UNLV won it all in 1990, 25 of the past 26 champs have come from a power-conference (except for UConn in 2014): ACC (9), SEC (6), Big East (6), Pac-12 (2), Big 12 (1), Big 10 (1).
STRATEGY: You might want to think twice before picking anyone from the A-10/WCC to win it all.
TIP #5: Only 3 coaches with 4 or fewer prior tournament appearances have won the title since 1985 (Steve Fisher/Tom Izzo/Kevin Ollie).
STRATEGY: Teams like Florida (Mike White has 0 prior tourney appearances)/Wisconsin (Greg Gard has 1 prior tourney appearance) might need a little more seasoning before they can win it all.
TIP #6: Each champ since 2002 had a strength of schedule that was among the top-75 in the nation.
STRATEGY: You have to play the best to learn how to beat the best you might want to stay away from Gonzaga (#78)/UCLA (#79).
TIP #7: Only 3 teams have won an NCAA title after not being in the tournament the previous year (1986 Louisville/2003 Syracuse/2014 UConn).
STRATEGY: Florida State (2016 NIT)/Louisville (2016 self-imposed postseason ban) are finally ready for primetime but not quite ready to win a title.
TIP #8: There are 6 active coaches who have won at least 70% of their NCAA tournament games (minimum 5 appearances).
STRATEGY: Do not expect Mike Krzyzewski (76.9%)/John Calipari (75%) to be catching an early flight home.
TIP #9: There are 3 teams who have won at least 90% of their games in the round of 64 (minimum 5 games).
STRATEGY: Kansas (31-2)/Maryland (19-2)/North Carolina (28-1) are near-automatic.
TIP #10: There are 8 teams who have won at least 75% of their games in the round of 32 (minimum 5 games).
STRATEGY: Arizona (17-4) is looking good vs. the St. Mary’s-VCU winner if they can get by North Dakota, but the Michigan-Oklahoma State winner better pray for a miracle if they have to face Louisville (23-7).
TIP #11: There are 6 teams who have won at least 75% of their Sweet 16 games (minimum 5 games).
STRATEGY: Michigan (12-1)/Providence (4-1) have played great in their Sweet 16 games so Oregon/Baylor should not rest on their higher-seeded laurels.
TIP #12: There are 9 teams who have won at least 70% of their Elite 8 games (minimum 5 games).
STRATEGY: UCLA has won 18 of its 22 Elite 8 games (81.8%) so keep an eye on them if they can make it to the 2nd Sunday.
TIP #13: There are 5 teams who have won at least 70% of their Final 4 games (minimum 5 games).
STRATEGY: Kentucky is 12-5 in the Final 4 so if you pick them to survive the South Region then you might want to pick them to get all the way to the title game.
TIP #14: There are 10 teams who have won at least 80% of their NCAA tournament games in their home state (minimum 5 games).
STRATEGY: How pissed is North Carolina (31-1 in the state of NC) that they are playing in Greenville (SC) rather than Greensboro (NC)?!
TIP #15: There are 10 teams who are undefeated in their NCAA tournament games in a specific state (minimum 5 games).
STRATEGY: Florida must be happy in Orlando but would love to make it 2 more rounds to NYC (6-0 in the state of NY), and as much as they like playing at MSG I wonder if Duke (6-0 in the state of PA) can convince Villanova to play an Elite 8 game back in Philly.
TIP #16: There are 11 teams who have won at least 67% of their NCAA tournament games as an at-large team (minimum 5 games).
STRATEGY: Do not sleep on Kansas because even though they did not win the Big 12 tourney they have a terrific track record even when they do not get an automatic bid (52-20).