As I do every week, I’d like to emphasize that this is a CHECKPOINT on CURRENT MERIT. This is not a prediction of what I think the bracket will look like in March, nor is it based on how good I think the teams actually are. For instance, I think Furman is having a great year, and is a good team. They’re unbeaten, they have big wins against Villanova and Loyola Chicago, and they’re now ranked in the Top 25. I do not think they’ll end up as a protected seed, but as of now, at this moment in time, none of the teams that I have on the lower seed lines have done more than they have, and until they do I’m going to keep Furman seeded ahead of them.
OTHERS CONSIDERED: DePaul, Georgetown, Liberty, UCF, Indiana, Clemson, Notre Dame, Colorado, Purdue, TCU, Washington, VCU, UNC Greensboro
NOTES ON THE BRACKET
-Michigan is my overall #1 seed, and it’s kind of hard to have anyone else there. They have not one, but three blowout wins against good teams, and one of those was away from home against Villanova. While the single most impressive win of the year probably belongs to Gonzaga, I still think Michigan’s overall resume is better for now. Or, maybe not. At this time of year we’re really just splitting hairs anyway, and this is more of an exercise in evaluating teams than it is in determining their overall potential value.
-I don’t think Radford will end up in the top half of the bracket, but for now there just isn’t anyone on the lower seedlines that has done more than they have.
-I really like this Utah State team. They absolutely blew UC Irvine’s doors off this past weekend, and I know on the surface that may not sound like much, but UCI is a good team that has already won some big games and is tough to beat at home. Utah State also has another nice win against Saint Mary’s, and their only loss was a close game (I know they came from behind, but still) to unbeaten Arizona State.
-People who have followed us for a while know that I’ve got a heavy hand when it comes to pouring drinks, and to rewarding wins away from home. Perhaps I put a little too much emphasis on it, especially when you consider what the actual committee has done in recent years (although my brackets are what I think SHOULD happen, not what I think the committee will do). This bracket is no exception. I know UCLA just beat LMU rather badly, but it was at home, and LMU has some nice wins away from home, which is why I have them where I do.
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TONIGHT’S ACTION
-IOWA AT MICHIGAN STATE (Big Ten). This is a conference game between two top twenty teams that already have some nice wins on their resume and that have earned their rankings. This would be another nice resume win for whoever pulls it off.
-LIBERTY AT GEORGETOWN. This is a buy game, but this Liberty team is better than what you may think. They’re probably overmatched tonight, but the Hoyas better not overlook them.
-RUTGERS AT WISCONSIN (Big Ten). Rutgers is getting better as a program, but they’ve still got a ways to go and appear to be overmatched tonight.
-TEXAS SOUTHERN AT GEORGIA. Dare I say upset alert? This Texas Southern team has two really nice road wins already, and no bad losses, and as a result are actually currently inside my bubble in the bracket above. Georgia isn’t all that good, so TX Southern really has a chance to pick up yet another true road win against a P5 team.
-Morgan State @ Virginia
-Troy @ Florida State
-Niagara @ Pittsburgh
-North Dakota State @ Iowa State
-Florida A&M @ DePaul