Just so everyone knows what they were looking at, this bracket is a CHECKPOINT based mostly on CURRENT MERIT. It is not a forecast of what I think things will look like in March, nor is it a ranking of how good I think teams actually are. I’m basically asking myself how difficult is it for an average team to win the games that they’ve played, and then ranking them accordingly.
Things are starting to “normalize” but there is still some stuff in the bracket that is obviously way out of whack. More on that below…
OTHERS CONSIDERED: Iowa State, UCLA, Davidson, Maryland, Toledo, UCF, Missouri, Oregon State, San Francisco, NC State, Vanderbilt, Liberty, Colorado, Georgetown, Creighton, Northwestern, Kent State, North Texas, Drake, Butler, Ole Miss
NOTES ON THE BRACKET:
-Furman has been a great story. They’re unbeaten, they had two big road wins against Villanova and Loyola Chicago, and they have cracked the top 25 (and deservedly so). Their seed in this bracket reflects that merit. I do not actually believe them to be that good. Other than the win at Villanova, they have not beaten any other teams that have a winning div1 record. On top of that, they had to sweat out Gardner Webb and Western Carolina at home, and neither of those teams are likely to finish in the top 200. If you’re asking me to forecast Furman, I don’t even think they’ finish in the top two of the SoCon, much less win it, much less run the table and end up as a protected seed. But, this bracket is not intended to make any assumptions. With an unbeaten record and a big win against Nova, you can’t say they don’t belong on the #4 line right now if you’re doing it based only on merit.
-The season is starting to take shape, but a lot of things are still pretty flimsy right now. A team like Purdue, who is on the #12 line, has had a couple of close losses. If they win just one or two of those, then they’re probably a protected seed. With so little data, any one game can have a huge sway on things. That is another reason that this bracket is not for you if you’re looking for something that accurately measures the overall strength of the teams and not just the current merit.
-I don’t know what to do with Western Kentucky. They’ve got two really good wins away from home, and a smattering of unimpressive results. A case could be made that they don’t belong in at all. A case could also be made that they should be seeded a lot better.
-I’m big on Louisville. I like their win at Seton Hall, and the home win against Michigan State isn’t bad either. Their losses to Tennessee (who is a #1 seed) and at Indiana (who is unbeaten at home and also looking pretty good) are hardly damaging.