Every year, I do the HoopsHD Preseason Bracket and thereafter swear off bracket projections until at least the middle of January. Quite simply, until every team has 3-5 conference games under their belts, I simply do not think enough data exists to project a field of 68. I have broken my rule this year, however, by about 2 weeks and present below my first regular season projection. please note that this projection is based solely on what teams have done to date, and does not make any prediction about how things will play out in the future. Also note that I have selected the teams that I feel are the best in each conference as the auto-bid winners, even if they are not currently in first place.
BRACKET NOTES
- I have six ACC teams on the top four seed lines, resulting in two regions (South and East) with multiple protected seeds from the same league.
- The ACC and SEC both put 8 teams in the field, but were blown away by the Big Ten with 10 teams! The Big Twelve has six entrants and the Big East has 5.
- The only other multi-big leagues were the American (3 teams), WCC (2) and SoCon (2). The later two got their second teams in the First Four. The Atlantic Ten, Mountain West and Pac Twleve are all single-bid conferences.
- Although the above statements seem to indicate that I am favoring the power conferences, I would note that I had both Georgia State and Lipscomb rated higher than the last of my First Four teams. Lipscomb unfortunately had to be bounced from the 12 line down to the 13 line (with the First Four game between Wofford and Florida moving up) because there were a ton of problems properly placing the First Four games due to San Jose being the only Friday/Sunday site on the 12 or 13 lines.
- I also had two more non-power conference schools among my top four teams out. Those four, in order, were Clemson, Furman, Murray State and Arizona. The next four out were Butler, VCU, Kansas State and Temple. Also considered were Georgetown, Missouri, Vanderbilt, Arkansas, Providence, Northwestern, Tulsa, Utah State, Ball State, Dayton, Toledo and Washington.
- Because I only look at results to date, I did not penalize Kansas despite the news today that Azubuike is out for the season. I don’t expect them to stay this high on the seed list though unless they learn how to play a lot better without him very fast.
- I don’t look at matchups that I created until I have already built the bracket, but the South Region looks amazing to me in terms of the number of great teams and name-brand schools.
COMMENTS FROM HOOPSHD STAFF
COMMENTS FROM DAVID:
-I hate to say this, but I agree with a lot of what Chad has done. I really like Belmont, and have been seeding them high all year, but it’s kind of hard to keep a team safely inside the bubble that lost at home to Jacksonville State. That was a conference game, but for all practical purposes it was the equivalent of losing a home buy game, so as much as I like them, Chad is being kinda generous to have them in at all.
-Arizona State on the #8 line is interesting. They got their crap together over the weekend and buried Colorado, but prior to that they were in the midst of a seven game stretch where they either lost (Nevada, Vandy, Princeton, Utah) or looked pathetic (Georgia, Texas Southern) in six of those games, and then beat a full strength Kansas team at home in one of those games. I guess when you average all that out it comes out to about a #8 seed, but I question whether or not they’re good enough to even finish that high once it’s over.
-I really don’t agree at all with Gonzaga on the #3 line. I understand the reasoning behind putting them there. I just think that the reasoning is wrong, and I KNOW that Chad is wrong!! Gonzaga has two losses away from home, one was by 3pts to Tennessee, and the other was on the road against North Carolina. Both of those teams are protected seeds, and at neither game was Gonzaga at full strength. They also beat Duke away from home. I don’t know how you seed them below Duke, but Chad has found a way to do it. Chad = WRONG!!!