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Just so everyone knows what they are looking at, these are MY picks of what I think what the tournament SHOULD BE if the season ended TODAY. I’m not trying to guess what the committee will do in March. John Teitel does that, he’s one of the best people on the planet at it so trying to take him on would be silly, and you can see his picks in the Bracketology tab at the top of the site.
Conference champions are indicated by an asterisk (*). They are who I feel the best team in the conference is and not necessarily the current first place team.
My notes on the bracket are below, and comments from the staff are below that. Anything that any staff member disagrees with is WRONG!!
OTHERS CONSIDERED: Pittsburgh, San Francisco, Furman, Handy Handerahan, Fresno State, Arizona, Clemson, Butler, TCU, Utah State, Saint Mary’s, Toledo, Liberty, Florida, Northwestern, Vermont
-I’ll begin with my #1 seeds, specifically Gonzaga. There are two things that I look for when picking the top line. One is that they beat a protected seed away from home, and the second is that they avoid losses to teams that are not protected seeds. Gonzaga has done both of those things. Kansas has not. They have some great wins, but they also just lost to West Virginia, and have some other head scratching losses (by #1 seed standards) as well. Michigan has not. They lost on the road to Wisconsin, and while that is a very tough place to win, IT’S TOUGH TO LAND ON THE #1 LINE!!! Gonzaga has beaten Duke away from home, and only losses are a close game to Tennessee (who also meets my criteria and is also on the #1 line) and on the road at North Carolina. Gonzaga was also not at full strength for either of those losses.
When you do a bracket every week, or vote in a top 25 poll every week, I think that it is very easy to get an early impression of a team (whether it’s good or bad), and keep that impression for longer than you should. To do this well, you have to ask yourself each week if what you thought was good a week ago is still good, and if what you thought was bad a week ago is still bad. With that in mind…
-Auburn has done NOTHING good. Not one thing!! Their best wins are at home against Washington and Murray State. Furthermore, they’ve had to sweat out wins against teams like Murray State, Dayton, Xavier, and UAB. Yet, people continue to rank them high and seed them high. I have them on the #11 line. Everyone will probably go crazy when you see that. But, not only does their resume not warrant a better seed, when you watch them on the court they don’t look any better than that. Overtime wins against UAB and Xavier aren’t exactly protected seed caliber wins. They play well at home. A lot of #11 seeds do. They’re good enough to almost beat good teams at home. That’s sounds pretty #11ish to me.
-Wofford is on the #10 line. Their best win is modest at best, but it’s at least modest. Their losses are as follows: at Kansas who is unbeaten at home, at Mississippi State who is 9-1 at home, at Oklahoma who is 7-1 at home, and at home against North Carolina, who’s a protected seed. None of that is remotely bad. They shouldn’t be punished for any of that, and the win at UNC Greensboro was a decent win. You know who doesn’t have a decent win on the road like that?? Auburn!!
-Kansas State is another team that left a sour taste in peoples’ mouths after they lost at Tulsa. But let’s look at them now. They are the only team that’s won at Oklahoma, and the only team that’s won at Iowa State. To date, they are the only team in the country that has two true road wins against top 25 teams. While the loss to Tulsa wasn’t good, Tulsa is 10-1 at home, so I wouldn’t go so far to say it was bad. Their other losses are at Texas Tech, at Marquette, and at home against Texas. Those aren’t bad either. Two of those teams are likely protected seeds.
-Another team that I like is Buffalo. I don’t like them quite as much as some others seem to. They exploded on their stage with a big win at West Virginia to open the year. That big win isn’t as big as it appeared at the time. The win against Syracuse was very solid, though, and they are good. I just don’t think they’re protected seed good.
COMMENTS FROM THE STAFF
CHAD’S COMMENTS
– Let me quote David’s words: “I think that it is very easy to get an early impression of a team (whether it’s good or bad), and keep that impression for longer than you should.” David watched Gonzaga beat Duke and got a very good impression of them. He, of course, has completely ignored the fact that they basically have no other wins of note besides that one. Syracuse won AT Duke! If we are gong to rank teams based on how they played at Duke, the Orange should be a 1 seed!!! The simple fact is that right now the Zags have one win against a team that is solidly in the field. Teams like Michigan and Kansas (especially Kansas) have multiple such wins. The Jayhawks have 5 such wins and 4 more against teams that are at least close to being in. I personally do not believe Gonzaga will lose again before Selection Sunday. I also believe that if they do that, they will be a 1 seed. But, to quote David again, this bracket was supposed to be “MY picks of what I think what the tournament SHOULD BE if the season ended TODAY”. Applying that standard, the Zags are not a 1 seed. Period.
– Kansas State is such a tough team to figure out. Their wins over the past week have been phenomenal, especially now that the team is healthy. I believe, once again, that the team will likely be around the 3 line or even higher by Selection Sunday given the way they are paying right now. But we cannot just ignore their struggles before last week. I would have them close to the top 4 lines, which may be higher than most, but not up to the 3 line. Not yet.
– I get slamming Auburn and honestly do not have a problem with David’s treament of them, But, why isn’t Florida State slammed the same way? The ‘Noles beat Purdue at home and LSU on a neutral court, two teams that are equal to or below them in the bracket. And they lost to Boston College. And their only road win was at Tulane. Florida State may deserve to be in a 6-11 game, but they should be the 11 seed, not the 6!
– I cannot figure out what Buffalo has done wrong this year to be hit with a 6 seed. They belong at least 2 lines higher, especially if you are going to put Houston and Nevada on the 5 line. I will take the Bulls profile over either of those teams any day.
– Iowa has only lost to teams ranked higher than them on the seed list and has a couple of notable wins, including more road wins than Florida State. I think they are undervalued on the 7 line.
– VCU, Providence, Radford and Oklahoma State. What do these teams have in common? First, none of them are at-large worthy or really close to it (other than maybe VCU). Second, all four of them beat Texas, three of them AT TEXAS! The longhorns have some great wins and belong in this field, but they probably belong in the First Four in Dayton, not on the 7 line!
– I love the inclusion of Baylor. The Bears are playing great basketball right now and are one of the fastest rising teams in the nation. At least David did something right!