For last night’s Under the Radar Video Podcast – CLICK HERE
SURVIVAL BOARD UPDATE (click here to view page)
-CLEVELAND STATE AT WRIGHT STATE (Horizon League). As hard to believe as this is, we may have our first team totally eliminated from the Survival Board tonight. If Cleveland State loses, it will be mathematically impossible for them to finish 8th and qualify for the Horizon League Conference Tournament. Our team of experts here at Hoops HD, after much debate, have concluded that they are not likely to receive an at-large bid, which would make them the first team to disappear from the board. Wright State is actually in a tie for first place and are trying to keep pace with Northern Kentucky.
NEWS AND NOTES
-The biggest game of the night didn’t quite go how we expected or wanted. Not that we had a rooting interest, but you hate to see a team lose a key player in a showcase game like that. Zion Williamson went down early, and from pretty much that point on North Carolina never trailed and it was really never close. I don’t want to take anything away from UNC. It was a decisive win against a very good team, and with the margin being what it was and the fact that UNC played as well as they did I’m not going to say that they wouldn’t have won had Williamson not gotten hurt. I’m just saying that wasn’t the narrative anyone really wanted.
-Nevada basically trailed tip to buzzer at San Diego State, and while the loss is hardly a knockout blow, it is going to sink their resume somewhat. San Diego State is nowhere close to the NCAA Tournament based on what they’ve done for the entire season, but they are a team that’s playing extremely well right now and are playing like an NCAA Tournament caliber team. I wouldn’t rule them out as a team that could win the MWC Tournament and get in via the auto-bid.
-LSU struggled for the second consecutive game after their big win at Kentucky. This time they went down to Florida at home in a game that really was a huge surprise. Florida still has work to do, but that win was a huge step forward for the Gators.
-Villanova trailed Georgetown for seemingly the entire game and picked up their second straight loss. Their are worse times that a team can go into a slump, but the sooner they pull themselves out of it the better. This was also the first time since 2013 that the Wildcats have lost back-to-back Big East games.
-Louisville was crushed by Syracuse. I don’t know what to chalk this up to. Syracuse being schizophrenic and playing like ‘Good Syracuse’ last night, Louisville having an awful night, Louisville carrying out their end of game slumps for an entire game, or what. Louisville is still in good shape, but is looking less and less like a protected seed. Syracuse, I suppose, is in good shape as well and this win certainly helps put them in better shape.
-Mississippi State won at Georgia by just a point. There was a foul called in a tie game with less than a second to go. The crowd wasn’t happy, so after the first missed free throw a fan threw a toy onto the court, which resulted in a technical foul and two more free throws. By the time it was all over, Mississippi State had won by a point. Okay, don’t throw things onto the court, but chances are even without that Mississippi State would have won.
-After praising Seton Hall in yesterday’s write up, they fell at home to a Xavier team that seems to be 100 miles away from the NCAA Tournament. Xavier had a 16-point lead with under 8 minutes to play, but Seton Hall came back and had a shot at the buzzer to win it. They just couldn’t quite get all the way back. Now the Pirates have a tougher road remaining with games at St. John’s and Georgetown and home games against Villanova and Marquette.
-NC State beat Boston College at home in overtime. I guess this means we have to keep looking at NC State.
-Lipscomb fell at home to Florida Gulf Coast. They’ve gone from being a likely at-large, to a possible at-large, and after last night a maybe-but-probably-not at large. It was NOT a good loss.
-Saint John’s got blown out at Providence. The Johnnies are another team that are hot and cold depending on the night. Last night, they were cold.
-Butler started out the night looking like they might get a much-needed signature win at Marquette, but the Golden Eagles kicked into another gear in the 2nd half and ended up winning without seriously being threatened. This was also damaging for Butler in that they now find themselves in seventh place in the Big East and now being in a position to potentially need to win four games in four days in the Big East tournament. They still have a game at Villanova remaining, but their margin for error is just about depleted.
-Washington and Arizona State both got much needed wins at home in the Pac-12 last night against Utah and Stanford, respectively.
HIGHLIGHTED GAMES
-MICHIGAN AT MINNESOTA (Big Ten). Michigan has been good on the road this year, but they haven’t always been “protected-seed-good” on the road. Like, that time last week where they lost at Penn State. It’s not easy to win at Minnesota, but if Michigan really is a #2 seed, which we think they are, then this is a game they should win. Being a #2 seed means you’re good enough to win games that aren’t easy to win.
-UCF AT CINCINNATI (American). This is a VERY important game. UCF is squarely on the bubble and this is the kind of game that can put them on the right side of it. Cincinnati has a bloated record, but without a whole lot of quality wins they have a small margin for error and it wouldn’t take much to knock them down into the bottom half of the bracket.
-PEPPERDINE AT GONZAGA (West Coast). This game is a huge mismatch. Gonzaga is a likely #1 seed, and Pepperdine will likely finish way below .500. But in a game like this, it’s not really what’s on paper that really matters. What matters is that Lorenzo Romar and Mark Few, two people who can probably think of at least five or six people on Planet Earth right now that they hate more than they hate each other, are together again in a spirit of peace and harmony that makes college basketball so great! (**If you are not aware of the past these two have, Google it! It is AMAZING!!**)
-OREGON STATE AT UCLA (Pac Twelve). Okay, you may be laughing now, but this Oregon State team has been playing really well. They’ve won four of their last five, and with chances to knock off both Arizona State and Wahsington, plus whoever they may face in the Pac Twelve Tournament, this team will have some serious attention paid to it by the selection committee if they are able to thunder down the stretch.
UNDER THE RADAR
-TOWSON AT HOFSTRA (Colonial Athletic). Hofstra has a two game lead with just four games to go.
-ALBANY AT STONY BROOK (America East). Stony Brook is chasing Vermont, and will look to hold serve against their rivals tonight.
-VERMONT AT UMBC (America East). Vermont’s only conference loss came to UMBC at home. If they can pick up the win tonight they’ll be in the driver’s seat for a first place finish and home court advantage in the conference tourney.
-WINTHROP AT RADFORD (Big South). These are the top two teams in the league, and Winthrop has a two game lead with just four games to go. If they get this one. If they get this one they will be very close to clinching first place and hosting the conference tournament (Campbell is also in the race).
-WESTERN CAROLINA AT UNC GREENSBORO (SoCon). After two straight losses UNCG is probably out of the at-large talk, but they’re still a good team that can make quite a bit of noise in the conference tournament.
-GEORGIA STATE AT APPALACHIAN STATE (Sun Belt). Georgia State is just one game back of Texas State and is trying to keep pace.
-UT MARTIN AT MURRAY STATE (Ohio Valley). Murray State is tied with Belmont and looking to lock up a bye into the OVC semis with a strong finish to the season.
-FORT WAYNE AT SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (Summit League). South Dakota State is tied for first place and is trying to win out to secure at least a share of it
-UL MONROE AT TEXAS STATE (Sun Belt). Texas State has a one game lead over Georgia State and is trying to hold serve and stay ahead of them. They’ve had a fantastic year.