SURVIVAL BOARD UPDATE (click here to view)
-New Hampshire out with a loss at UMBC
-Denver out with a home loss to Omaha OR a Western Illinois win at South Dakota State. If Denver wins and WIU loses, WIU is out instead.
-Columbia is out with a loss at Yale
-Two of UT-Martin, SIUE, Eastern Kentucky or Tennessee State will be eliminated in the OVC. The tiebreakers make my head hurt bad to even look at, so just check back after all OVC games are done Saturday night. The only one thing that is certain is that the loser of today’s Tennessee State at UT-Martin game is out. The winner could, however, be out as well.
HIGHLIGHTED GAMES
-MICHIGAN STATE AT INDIANA (Big Ten). This game is intriguing for a couple reasons. Michigan State is still in contention for a #1 seed, and one of the two games that Indiana has won since January 3rd was at Michigan State.
-LSU AT ALABAMA (SEC). Alabama is a bubble team who gets to host LSU, who is a likely protected seed. It’s a huge opportunity for the Tide to really help boost their resume.
-KANSAS AT OKLAHOMA STATE (Big 12). With so few road wins, this is low hanging fruit that Kansas simply must be able to pick up. They’ve won just two true road games, and if they can’t beat a team that’s as far outside the NIT as Oklahoma State appears to be, then it’s a huge problem for them ending up as a protected seed. Then again, they’re just one game out of first place.
-NC STATE AT FLORIDA STATE (ACC). To say that NC State’s profile is flimsy is like saying Duke’s profile is good. There just isn’t a whole lot there, and they could REALLY use a in like this, on the road, against a really good team. I still think Florida State could end up as a protected seed, but they need a strong finish.
-PENN STATE AT WISCONSIN (Big Ten). Wisky is cruising into the NCAA Tournament and is basically just playing for seeding the rest of the way.
-OLE MISS AT ARKANSAS (SEC). Ole Miss should land in the NCAA Tournament barring a ridiculous collapse, and will likely end up wearing white in the Round of 64. This isn’t the easiest road game to win, but they’re certainly capable of doing it, and even if they don’t they’re still in relatively good shape.
-PITTSBURGH AT VIRGINIA (ACC). Virginia will in all likelihood end up as a #1 seed. They haven’t lost to anyone outside of Duke and that isn’t likely to change today.
-KENTUCKY AT TENNESSEE (SEC). If Kentucky can win this one, I don’t see how they fall off the #1 line even if they go out early in the SEC Tournament. It would be their best win of the year on paper. It goes without saying that it won’t be easy. Tennessee will have a ton of energy behind them, and they also still have hopes of landing on the #1 line.
-OHIO STATE AT PURDUE (Big Ten). Ohio State is coming off a blowout win against Iowa, which certainly helped their confidence as well as their profile. They have a tough road game today against a Purdue team that’s on pace to end up as a protected seed.
-WOFFORD AT SAMFORD (SoCon). If Wofford wins this one, I think they’re in the NCAAs regardless of what happens in the SoCon Tournament next week.
-BUTLER AT VILLANOVA (Big East). Nova seems to have righted their ship after picking up a big win against Marquette. They need to hold serve at home today in order to keep their resume from collapsing. I think they’re pretty much a lock and are just playing for seeding at this point, but it’s still important that they finish strong.
-IOWA STATE AT TEXAS (Big 12). This is a hugely important game for Texas. The Horns have some great wins, and they’ve played a tough schedule, but they also have a lot of head-scratching losses and an overall record that would be a near historic low for an NCAA Tournament team. This game has a very pivotal feel to it. It’s also important to Iowa State, who still has a path to a protected seed if they can pick up some more solid wins between now and the end.
-WEST VIRGINIA AT OKLAHOMA (Big 12). There are games that are big because they’re opportunities at big wins, and then there are games that are big because they would be damaging losses. This is the latter for Oklahoma.
-MIAMI FL AT DUKE (ACC). Duke is the best team in the country when they’re at full strength, but even if they’re not at full strength they should be able to win this game. Losing at Virginia Tech without a key player isn’t damaging. Losing at home to Miami, with or without a key player, is rather damaging by #1 seed standards.
-UCF AT HOUSTON (American). The rest of the staff likes UCF more than I do. If UCF can win this game, I will totally concede the point. This is a game that would put them in the field. As for Houston, they are good enough to win out, and if they do I can’t see them doing any worse than a #2 seed.
-TEXAS TECH AT TCU (Big 12). This is a big game for both teams who are in very different places. Texas Tech is on the fringe of getting a protected seed and could use a nice road win. TCU is right on the bubble, and could use a win, period.
-MISSISSIPPI STATE AT AUBURN (SEC). Both teams are likely tournament teams, but both resumes have a lot of room for improvement. Auburn basically has a smattering of decent wins but no really good ones, and Mississippi State has a few good wins but would certainly look a lot better with a road win like this one.
-VCU AT RICHMOND (Atlantic Ten). We’ve been saying this for a while, but if VCU wins out they should make the field even if they don’t win the conference tournament.
-RUTGERS AT IOWA (Big Ten). This should be a winnable home game for Iowa. Then again it took a lucky shot at the buzzer to win it for them the first time these two played. Iowa will also be without their coach, which really shouldn’t hurt them too badly.
-NORTH CAROLINA AT CLEMSON (ACC). North Carolina looks to be destined for the #2 line, but still has a path to a #1 if they can win out and win the conference tournament, which isn’t impossible. Clemson is right on the bubble and a win like this could go a long way in them landing on the right side of the fence.
-AIR FORCE AT WYOMING (Mountain West) (Front Range). We at Hoops HD Love the…..next game…
-SETON HALL AT GEORGETOWN (Big East). Seton Hall has some really big wins, but some really questionable losses. They should make the field, but they could use some stabilization to get them there, and a road win like this would really help.
-BAYLOR AT KANSAS STATE (Big 12). K State is in first place and in contention for a protected seed. Baylor is on pace to land in the top half of the bracket. Both teams are pretty much just playing for seeding at this point. We haven’t locked Baylor in just yet, but they’re virtually locked in. They’d pretty much have to lose all their remaining games to miss the field.
-MEMPHIS AT CINCINNATI (American). Cincinnati may be the quietest 24-4 team from a multi-bid league in the entire history of college basketball. Memphis has been playing a lot better so the Bearcats don’t want to overlook them, but they’re on pace to land in the top half of the bracket and do more in the NCAA Tournament than just have a cup of coffee.
-NEVADA AT UTAH STATE (Mountain West). If Utah State can win this game, then I think they make the NCAA Tournament. If they don’t, then they’ll need to win the Mountain West Tourney. Nevada is just playing for seeding at this point.
-GEORGIA AT FLORIDA (SEC). We now have Florida inside our bubble, and as long as they can hold serve in games like this they should make the field. They’ll chances at big wins between now and the end to help boost their resume even more.
-GONZAGA AT SAINT MARY’S (West Coast). This is a big rivalry, but this year it appears to be an even bigger mismatch. Gonzaga crushed them in the first game and despite being on the road it could end up being very much the same result tonight. SMC is 14-2 at home, and they do have a Net that’s in the top 40. If they were to somehow win this game it would get the committee’s attention, and it may earn them some serious consideration, but without it I just don’t think there’s enough there for the Gaels.
UNDER THE RADAR
-ARMY AT BUCKNELL (Patriot League). There is a three way tie for first place in the PL. Bucknell could end up with home court advantage all the way through, or they could end up only getting to host a quarterfinal game.
-COLGATE AT LAFAYETTE (Patriot League). Colgate is another team that’s locked into that tie.
-NORTHERN KENTUCKY AT GREEN BAY (Horizon League). NKU is tied with Wright State for first place.
-FURMAN AT CHATTANOOGA (SoCon). We have Furman on the bubble. If they can win this and win a couple of games in the SoCon Tournament I think the committee will take a serious look at them.
-RADFORD AT CAMPBELL (Big South). HUGE game. These are the top two teams and the winner gets home court advantage in the conference tournament.
-NEW MEXICO STATE AT CHICAGO STATE (WAC). New Mexico State has already clinched first place, and will face their quarterfinal opponent this afternoon.
-HOFSTRA AT DELAWARE (Colonial). If Hofstra wins they are the outright first place team.
-UNC GREENSBORO AT MERCER (SoCon). UNCG may get a look from the committee if they win this game and play their way into the SoCon championship game, but chances are they’ll need the auto bid.
-WESTERN ILLINOIS AT SOUTH DAKOTA STATE (Summit League). If South Dakota State wins they clinch first place outright.
-BRADLEY AT LOYOLA CHICAGO (Missouri Valley). Loyola is tied with Drake. A win gets them at least a share of first place.
-HOWARD AT SAVANNAH STATE (MEAC). Savannah State is looking to finish their final season at the div1 level strongly.
-COPPIN STATE AT NORFOLK STATE (MEAC). If Norfolk State wins then they clinch at least a share of first place.
-PRAIRIE VIEW AT ALABAMA A&M (SWAC). Prairie View has a two game lead with four games to go.
-COLUMBIA AT YALE (Ivy League). Going into Friday at the time this is being written, Yale has a one game lead with just four games to go. Depending on how things play out they could be clinching at least a share of first place today.
-STONY BROOK AT VERMONT (America East). These are the top two teams, one game separates the two, and Stony Brook holds the tiebreaker. The winner of this game will, in all likelihood, clinch home court advantage throughout the entire conference tournament. If Vermont wins, then they win the league outright.
-TEXAS STATE AT SOUTH ALABAMA (Sun Belt). Texas State has a one game lead in the standings with just two games to go. A win clinches at least a share of first place.
-UC IRVINE AT UC RIVERSIDE (Big West) (RiverVine Cup). A win for UC Irvine clinches an outright first place finish.
-BELMONT AT SEMO (Ohio Valley). Belmont is on the fringe of the bubble and should have a chance if they win this game and their first conference tournament game.
-AUSTIN PEAY AT MURRAY STATE (Ohio Valley). Murray State locks up a bye into the semifinals with a win.
-SOUTHERN UTAH AT MONTANA (Big Sky). Montana is trying to hold on to a one game lead with four games to go.