Those at Hoops HD who claim (incorrectly, IMHO) to “know best” say that I shouldn’t get drunk and ramble on the internet. I don’t know why. I did want to share my free flowing stream of consciousness on some ongoing college basketball issues…
ON THE ENDLESS BUBBLE DEBATE BETWEEN THE TOP UTR AND THE MID-LEVEL POWER TEAMS. This is an ongoing argument that heats up every March. Generally speaking, the same people who say the UTR teams are getting screwed have always said that and will always continue to say that. The people who are on the other side of the fence and say that the UTR teams really aren’t as good because they don’t have to play tough conference schedules will also always say that. I think both sides are right, and wrong. By that I mean I think that some UTR bubble teams are better than P5/Big East bubble teams. But not all of them and not always. I also don’t think the problem is necessarily with the committee. The committee can only evaluate the data that’s in front of them. They cannot schedule throughout the season. And, that is ultimately what I think is broken. Your top UTR teams (Belmont, Murray State, Lipscomb, New Mexico State, Wofford, Buffalo, Hofstra, Vermont, etc) basically have the first six weeks of the season to play the kinds of games they need to in order to impress the committee. In order to get them scheduled, they almost always have to agree to play them on very uneven and unfavorable terms. Sometimes, depending on what dates are available, they can’t even make that work. Then if they do pick up a few big wins, they are basically in a position of playing to not screw up for the rest of the season. They don’t get the chance to play in big games that could elevate their team or their resume. They only get to play in games where the best they can do is hold serve. Now, I’m all for teams needing to prove themselves in order to make the NCAA Tournament. What I do not like is the huge circumstantial disadvantage that a lot of good UTR teams have. It’s possible. It’s been done. We’ve seen Wofford and Buffalo do it this year (and maybe Belmont), but it does bug me that a lot of good teams who don’t want to play Belmont on equal terms will then accuse Belmont of not having played anyone that’s good. That’s not something the committee can really fix. Schools make their own schedules. The committee has no say.
As I type this, I’m watching NC State play Clemson. Belmont won two true road games against bubble(ish) teams (Murray State, Lipscomb). Lipscomb won at TCU, who’s most likely in the field. Furman won at Villanova, who is probably in the top half of the bracket. While it’s not unanimous that Clemson and NC State will be in the field and Lipscomb, Belmont, and Furman will not be, it is definitely the consensus among those who try and guess the committee. And, they are probably correct. Look at Clemson and NC State’s resume, and count up the number of road wins they have against teams that are near the bubble or in the field. Actually, don’t bother. I will do it for you. ZERO!! Despite having WAAAAY more chances to get those kinds of wins, neither Clemson or NC State got a single one!! Now, I realize that a team-sheet is like a scorecard, and NC State and Clemson arguably have better overall scorecards than, say, Lipscomb. But the idea that those top UTR teams would not have done at least as good or better than both NC State and Clemson if they were given the chance is misguided, IMHO. They did, after all, ALL do something that both NC State and Clemson failed to do despite the fact that they had far fewer chances to do it. Belmont is certainly good enough to beat good overall teams at home (like Auburn) who, while good overall, is poor on the road. Auburn, while good overall, won just four true road games and needed overtime to get by UAB and Xavier (neither of whom are anywhere close to making the NCAAT), and those games weren’t even true road games, but rather neutral floor games. Auburn is good overall, but not all that good on the road, and that was DEFINITELY the case at the time when NC State beat them. Let’s look at a hypothetical either/or scenario. You get to choose between one of the two following tasks, and if you complete it you get a million bucks. You can play one game against Auburn in your home arena and beat them, OR you can play Murray State, Lipscomb, and Austin Peay all on the road and win all tree of them. What’s harder to do?? You’d be crazy to not play the one home game against Auburn!! Beating an Auburn team at home that isn’t all that good on the road, or winning games at Murray State, Lipscomb, and Austin Peay who were a combined 33-6 at home?? I would definitely argue that it’s the latter. Yet, NC State will undoubtedly receive a lot of credit for the home win against Auburn even though winning that game really wasn’t that hard, and Belmont will get virtually no credit for beating three teams that were a combined 33-6 at home and single handedly accounting for half of those six losses. Top notch UTR teams like Belmont and Furman are also good enough to beat the kinds of teams on the road that Georgia State and Gardner Webb have beaten (Alabama, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech). So, yeah, if they played in the ACC, I think they’d go about 8-10, 9-9, or 10-8, and maybe even a little bit better.
I would love to see Belmont and Furman get in, not because I’m someone who runs around blindly whining about how the mid-majors are getting crapped on, but because I genuinely feel they are good enough to belong in and have done enough to prove it despite having limited opportunities to do so. But, I don’t feel that strongly about some of the other UTR teams. I also feel that teams like Indiana and Texas did a lot, and I could accept them getting in on how good the top of their resumes are. But, ultimately what I’d like to see is a season that allows for more clarity. Sometimes (oftentimes) a P5 team who has more chances ends up with a better resume/scorecard not so much because they’re better than a UTR team, but simply because they had more chances to build up their profiles. Something needs to be done (a Super Bracket buster, or something) to allow UTR teams more chances at quality wins other than in the first six weeks of the season under unfavorable terms.
I had a few more things I wanted to rant about, but I think I’ve said enough for today. I may be back tomorrow, or next week on one of the off days. Enjoy the games!!