The best week of the year is finally here! This is the reason why we ponder the impact of high-school All-Americans, the importance of having a smart/veteran coach, and exactly how many different “Wildcats” can make the Final 4. For those of you who need some last-minute bracket advice grounded in historical facts/trends, please see below for our Sweetest 16 Suggestions. For the rest of you, enjoy the Madness!!
TIP #1: No team that lost its opening game in its conference tournament has ever gone on to win the NCAA title that same year.
STRATEGY: The extra few days of rest have not proven helpful in the past so take a long hard look at Texas Tech (5-PT loss West Virginia in Big 12 tourney quarterfinals) before penciling them in as your champ.
TIP #2: Since 1979 only 2 national champions did not have a McDonald’s All-American on their roster (2002 Maryland/2014 UConn).
STRATEGY: A coach who cannot recruit the best high school players usually fails to win it all so beware of picking Gonzaga/Purdue to go all the way.
TIP #3: The last coach to win a title in his very 1st year as coach at a school was Tubby Smith at Kentucky in 1998.
STRATEGY: History is not on the side of Louisville (Chris Mack)/Utah State (Craig Smith).
TIP #4: Since UNLV won it all in 1990, 27 of the past 28 champs have come from a power-conference (except for UConn in 2014): ACC (10), SEC (6), Big East (7), Pac-12 (2), Big 12 (1), Big 10 (1).
STRATEGY: You might want to think twice before picking anyone from the AAC/A-10 to win it all.
TIP #5: Only 3 coaches with 4 or fewer prior tournament appearances have won the title since 1985 (Steve Fisher/Tom Izzo/Kevin Ollie).
STRATEGY: Teams like Arizona State (Bobby Hurley has 2 prior tourney appearances)/Iowa State (Steve Prohm has 3 prior tourney appearances) might need a little more seasoning before they can win it all.
TIP #6: Each champ since 2002 had a strength of schedule that was among the top-75 in the nation.
STRATEGY: You have to play the best to learn how to beat the best you might want to stay away from Buffalo (#79)/Wofford (#105).
TIP #7: Murray State has played in the most NCAA tournaments (16) without ever making the Sweet 16.
STRATEGY: The Racers have also not been a #12 seed in a while so maybe this is the year they break the streak.
TIP #8: There are 5 active coaches who have won at least 70% of their NCAA tournament games (minimum 5 wins).
STRATEGY: Do not expect Mike Krzyzewski of Duke (76.4%)/John Calipari of Kentucky (74.6%) to be catching an early flight home.
TIP #9: There are 4 teams who have won at least 90% of their games in the round of 64 (minimum 5 games).
STRATEGY: Kansas (33-2)/North Carolina (30-1) are near-automatic in their opening games.
TIP #10: There are 10 teams who have won at least 70% of their games in the round of 32 (minimum 5 games).
STRATEGY: Louisville (23-8) is looking good vs. the Michigan State-Bradley winner if they can get by Minnesota, but the Wofford-Seton Hall winner better pray for a miracle if they have to face Kentucky (27-7).
TIP #11: There are 8 teams who have won at least 75% of their Sweet 16 games (minimum 5 games).
STRATEGY: Oregon (5-1)/Temple (7-0) have played great in their Sweet 16 games so Michigan State/Virginia should not rest on their higher-seeded laurels.
TIP #12: There are 9 teams who have won at least 70% of their Elite 8 games (minimum 5 games).
STRATEGY: Keep an eye on the Buckeye State in case either Cincinnati (6-2)/Ohio State (11-4) make it to the 2nd Sunday.
TIP #13: There are 6 teams who have won at least 70% of their Final 4 games (minimum 5 games).
STRATEGY: Michigan is 7-1 in the Final 4 so if you pick them to survive the West Region then you might want to pick them to get all the way to the title game.
TIP #14: There are 10 teams who are undefeated in their NCAA tournament games in a specific state (minimum 5 games).
STRATEGY: Duke could not be happier that the Final 4 is in Minneapolis (6-0 all-time in the state of Minnesota).
TIP #15: There are 7 teams who have won at least 70% of their NCAA tournament games as an at-large team (minimum 5 games).
STRATEGY: Do not sleep on North Carolina because even though they did not win the ACC tourney they still have a terrific track record when they do not get an automatic bid (65-26).
TIP #16: Only 3 teams have won an NCAA title after not being in the tournament the previous year (1986 Louisville/2003 Syracuse/2014 UConn).
STRATEGY: Iowa State (no postseason tourney in 2018)/LSU (2018 NIT) are finally ready for primetime but not quite ready to win a title.