This week, it is our colleague John Stalica’s turn to do the Hoops HD weekly staff bracket projection. This is merely a checkpoint of games played through Sunday the 29th; this is not, I repeat not, a projection of what he expects the field to look like come March. The bracket is posted below:
First Four Out: Indiana, Arizona, Rutgers, Xavier
Other Teams Considered: Arizona State, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Texas Tech, VCU, Ole Miss, Illinois, Notre Dame, Mississippi State, LSU, NC State, UNC-Greensboro
COMMENTS FROM JOHN:
-The volatility in college hoops continues yet again. Gonzaga is now about as firmly entrenched into the overall #1 slot as you can get for a little while, so naturally we saw #2 ranked Ohio State lose to West Virginia. (This was the first loss by a team ranked #2 at the time, strangely enough.) Duke and Kansas have worked their way back into #1 seeds and Baylor has the edge for the last #1 thanks to wins like Butler, Arizona and Villanova on a neutral court.
-Auburn and San Diego State are the last two unbeaten teams in the country, and unlike teams like Liberty and Duquesne, they do have some wins of note (home and away) to warrant protected seeds at this time.
-Arizona suddenly finds itself below the cut line for the time being; while they had a great November and won the Wooden Legacy, their schedule got tougher in December and suddenly they don’t have quality wins to offset their losses. Gonzaga and Baylor are forgivable; St. John’s – not so much.
-Naturally, Arizona’s loss is the Johnnies’ gain. St. John’s started slowly (not without any shock) with losses against Arizona State and Vermont, but now have wins against West Virginia and the aforementioned Wildcats on a neutral floor. Now the Johnnies have to go through the 18-game gauntlet that is conference play in the Big East.
-Northern Iowa is my only UTR team slotted above the First Four and will be that way at least for the foreseeable future. Outside of the Panthers, only teams like Yale, UNC-Greensboro and Furman have a potential pathway there in my view at the moment. Liberty, not so much after their loss at LSU.
-A bracketologist’s worst nightmare is beginning to unfold with BYU entrenched in the First Four at the moment. A potential Purdue-Villanova rematch from last year wouldn’t normally be slotted in the first round, but I don’t suspect the real committee would avoid this in the event of the BYU headache. The Coogs are in this spot thanks to wins against Houston, Virginia Tech and Utah State, although losses at Utah and especially Boise State will sting.
-Apparently Stephen F Austin’s win at Duke is making less of an impression on Stalica than SFA’s losses to Alabama and Rutgers, both of which were on the road. This is a team that’s good enough to run the table in the Southland, and if they do that then I cannot imagine them not being safely inside the bubble.
COMMENTS FROM DAVID
-Baylor as a #1 seed is interesting. They do have three wins against (currently) ranked teams, so I can’t say that it’s an outrageous pick, but one of those was against Arizona, who (probably correctly) isn’t even in Stalica’s field. I still think Duke is the better overall team, and has the better overall resume. They did, after all, beat Kansas away from home, who’s on Stalica’s #1 line.
-A #5 seed for Louisville does seem a little low. I don’t think it’s outrageously low. I just think it’s the normal parameters of low. The home win against Michigan was good, but Michigan is also a team without a true road win yet, so having that as your signature win just isn’t going to get you all that much higher than a #4 seed. In Stalica’s case, it didn’t even get them that high.
-We got back and forth on this, but I do think Dayton is a lot better than their resume. If you look at them on paper, a strong case can be made that they don’t even belong on the #6 line. I do think they are a top 15 team, and are good enough on the court to earn a protected seed, and if they blow through the Atlantic Ten, which I think they will, then the committee should put them up there. I understand Stalica’s reasoning. I just think he’s wrong. And when I think someone is wrong, IT MEANS THEY ARE WRONG!!
-I’m just not feeling Oklahoma State. Everyone else at Hoops HD seems to be high on them. I was at one time. I’m not anymore. In looking at their profile, they have a nice win at Houston, and….well….I mean….it was a nice win at Houston. Barely.
-With that being said, I do like this Houston team. I think their resume will continue to improve as the season plays out, and I think Stalica was right to include them.
Bracket Projection (Staff Bracket) – Monday, December 30th
This week, it is our colleague John Stalica’s turn to do the Hoops HD weekly staff bracket projection. This is merely a checkpoint of games played through Sunday the 29th; this is not, I repeat not, a projection of what he expects the field to look like come March. The bracket is posted below:
First Four Out: Indiana, Arizona, Rutgers, Xavier
Other Teams Considered: Arizona State, Minnesota, Wisconsin, Texas Tech, VCU, Ole Miss, Illinois, Notre Dame, Mississippi State, LSU, NC State, UNC-Greensboro
COMMENTS FROM JOHN:
-The volatility in college hoops continues yet again. Gonzaga is now about as firmly entrenched into the overall #1 slot as you can get for a little while, so naturally we saw #2 ranked Ohio State lose to West Virginia. (This was the first loss by a team ranked #2 at the time, strangely enough.) Duke and Kansas have worked their way back into #1 seeds and Baylor has the edge for the last #1 thanks to wins like Butler, Arizona and Villanova on a neutral court.
-Auburn and San Diego State are the last two unbeaten teams in the country, and unlike teams like Liberty and Duquesne, they do have some wins of note (home and away) to warrant protected seeds at this time.
-Arizona suddenly finds itself below the cut line for the time being; while they had a great November and won the Wooden Legacy, their schedule got tougher in December and suddenly they don’t have quality wins to offset their losses. Gonzaga and Baylor are forgivable; St. John’s – not so much.
-Naturally, Arizona’s loss is the Johnnies’ gain. St. John’s started slowly (not without any shock) with losses against Arizona State and Vermont, but now have wins against West Virginia and the aforementioned Wildcats on a neutral floor. Now the Johnnies have to go through the 18-game gauntlet that is conference play in the Big East.
-Northern Iowa is my only UTR team slotted above the First Four and will be that way at least for the foreseeable future. Outside of the Panthers, only teams like Yale, UNC-Greensboro and Furman have a potential pathway there in my view at the moment. Liberty, not so much after their loss at LSU.
-A bracketologist’s worst nightmare is beginning to unfold with BYU entrenched in the First Four at the moment. A potential Purdue-Villanova rematch from last year wouldn’t normally be slotted in the first round, but I don’t suspect the real committee would avoid this in the event of the BYU headache. The Coogs are in this spot thanks to wins against Houston, Virginia Tech and Utah State, although losses at Utah and especially Boise State will sting.
-Apparently Stephen F Austin’s win at Duke is making less of an impression on Stalica than SFA’s losses to Alabama and Rutgers, both of which were on the road. This is a team that’s good enough to run the table in the Southland, and if they do that then I cannot imagine them not being safely inside the bubble.
COMMENTS FROM DAVID
-Baylor as a #1 seed is interesting. They do have three wins against (currently) ranked teams, so I can’t say that it’s an outrageous pick, but one of those was against Arizona, who (probably correctly) isn’t even in Stalica’s field. I still think Duke is the better overall team, and has the better overall resume. They did, after all, beat Kansas away from home, who’s on Stalica’s #1 line.
-A #5 seed for Louisville does seem a little low. I don’t think it’s outrageously low. I just think it’s the normal parameters of low. The home win against Michigan was good, but Michigan is also a team without a true road win yet, so having that as your signature win just isn’t going to get you all that much higher than a #4 seed. In Stalica’s case, it didn’t even get them that high.
-We got back and forth on this, but I do think Dayton is a lot better than their resume. If you look at them on paper, a strong case can be made that they don’t even belong on the #6 line. I do think they are a top 15 team, and are good enough on the court to earn a protected seed, and if they blow through the Atlantic Ten, which I think they will, then the committee should put them up there. I understand Stalica’s reasoning. I just think he’s wrong. And when I think someone is wrong, IT MEANS THEY ARE WRONG!!
-I’m just not feeling Oklahoma State. Everyone else at Hoops HD seems to be high on them. I was at one time. I’m not anymore. In looking at their profile, they have a nice win at Houston, and….well….I mean….it was a nice win at Houston. Barely.
-With that being said, I do like this Houston team. I think their resume will continue to improve as the season plays out, and I think Stalica was right to include them.