This week, it is our colleague John Stalica’s turn to do the Hoops HD Staff Bracket – this is not the bracket like Jon Teitel does where he attempts to forecast the Selection Committee, but this is how he would personally select and seed the field at the checkpoint of games played through Sunday the 19th. Here is the field below:
COMMENTS FROM JOHN:
– This week, the first surprise comes not so much on the top line of the bracket, but on the second line of the bracket where Florida State now is #5 overall on the seed list and the top-ranked ACC team ahead of Duke. There is a slight recency bias on this pick, but one thing that hurts Duke this week is that they now have two losses against teams that are not guaranteed to make this field (meaning that if SFA were to lose in their conference tournament, they’d miss the NCAAs). Also keep in mind that a win at Louisville does help out FSU as well.
– Seton Hall is rapidly shooting up the seed list, and winning at Butler also helps to put them above the Bulldogs for the time being. Butler took a brief slide with this loss and the loss at DePaul.
– Louisville and Kentucky have played much better of late, and are winning big games both home and away as teams like Maryland, Penn State, Michigan and Ohio State are stumbling as they are reverting to homecourt heroes (and even less where the free-falling Buckeyes are concerned).
– USC was getting a peek into the field during our first two episodes of the Bracket Rundown, but if I was going to be high on Stanford for their performance earlier this season, I owe the same courtesy to the Trojans (especially with a head-to-head win against Stanford along with wins against LSU and TCU away from home). They will have their biggest test of the year with the Oregon/Oregon State roadie awaiting this week.
– Two blowout losses on the road have turned Auburn into a profile eerily similar to that of Arkansas. I’m now wondering if both Chad and the Puppet will skewer me for having them ahead of the Hogs at this stage.
– I’m ready to put a team like Northern Iowa above the First Four based on their overall body of work compared to the bubble muck, but I’m not quite ready to do the same for Liberty. Their metrics are okay, but the words “intent to schedule” are going to haunt the Flames come March.
COMMENTS FROM DAVID:
– I normally say that in order to land on the #1 line that a team needs to beat a protected seed away from home, which is something that San Diego State has not done and will not do, but ‘normally’ saying that isn’t the same as ‘always’ saying that. I’ve not yet moved the Aztecs up to my #1 line, but they are getting close. And even though they haven’t beaten a protected seed away from home (or at all), they have won at BYU (which is currently their only home loss) and blew past a really good Creighton team on a neutral floor. So, a case can be made that they belong up there. Oh yeah, and they are undefeated, but a case can be made beyond just that.
-All and all, John did a pretty good job. I hate to say that, but he did. I totally disagree on Indiana. They do have a nice win against Florida State, and they do have a bloated record, but it came against a weak schedule and most of their wins are against teams with overall losing records, or they’re home wins against teams with losing road records. I think they belong in the field, but not quite on the #6 line.
-Auburn on the #8 line seems about right.
-Houston on the #6 seems a little high, but they did just pick up a big win. I now don’t feel so bad about having them in my 7-8 line range.
COMMENTS FROM CHAD:
– I think a strong case can be made the Louisville belongs even higher than the 4 line. The Cardinals picked up a absolutely HUGE road win this week and now have three Tier 1 road victories and no losses below Tier 1A (the top half of Tier 1).
– I also do not understand how Colorado is a 4 seed, even if they were the very last 4 seed. The Buffs best true road win is at Arizona State, who is not in the field. Their entire resume is propped up by a neutral court win over Dayton. Meanwhile, they have lost twice at home to teams that are one or below the bubble (UNI and Oregon State). I just don’t think that is a protected seed resume. Quite frankly, I would have them 3 or 4 seed lines lower than a 4 seed.
– Houston and Indiana are both overseeded, but David already addressed them. Memphis on the 6 line seems way too high to me as well. Wins over NC State, Tennessee and Cincinnati are the entirety of the Tigers Tier 1 AND Tier 2 resume. That’s not 6 seed caliber in my opinion.
– Oklahoma in the First Four on the 11 line is an under-seeding as well. The Sooners have been quietly putting together a solid resume. They have 5 wins away fro hoe against the top two tiers and only one loss outside of Tier 1A. I think that is at least 9 line good, if not better.
– I think Colgate is a couple lines better than a 15 seed. They won at Cincinnati and have avoided most of the bad losses. John’s 14 seed teams all have a lot more warts on their resumes than the Raiders do.
– All in all, I think John did a fairly good job. I almost completely agree with his choice of teams, though I think a case can be made that Georgetown belongs in above a Tennessee or NC State. It is a close call there, so I will let that issue slide for now. I do, however, completely agree with his 1 seed line.
Bracket Projection (Staff Bracket) – Monday, January 20th
This week, it is our colleague John Stalica’s turn to do the Hoops HD Staff Bracket – this is not the bracket like Jon Teitel does where he attempts to forecast the Selection Committee, but this is how he would personally select and seed the field at the checkpoint of games played through Sunday the 19th. Here is the field below:
COMMENTS FROM JOHN:
– This week, the first surprise comes not so much on the top line of the bracket, but on the second line of the bracket where Florida State now is #5 overall on the seed list and the top-ranked ACC team ahead of Duke. There is a slight recency bias on this pick, but one thing that hurts Duke this week is that they now have two losses against teams that are not guaranteed to make this field (meaning that if SFA were to lose in their conference tournament, they’d miss the NCAAs). Also keep in mind that a win at Louisville does help out FSU as well.
– Seton Hall is rapidly shooting up the seed list, and winning at Butler also helps to put them above the Bulldogs for the time being. Butler took a brief slide with this loss and the loss at DePaul.
– Louisville and Kentucky have played much better of late, and are winning big games both home and away as teams like Maryland, Penn State, Michigan and Ohio State are stumbling as they are reverting to homecourt heroes (and even less where the free-falling Buckeyes are concerned).
– USC was getting a peek into the field during our first two episodes of the Bracket Rundown, but if I was going to be high on Stanford for their performance earlier this season, I owe the same courtesy to the Trojans (especially with a head-to-head win against Stanford along with wins against LSU and TCU away from home). They will have their biggest test of the year with the Oregon/Oregon State roadie awaiting this week.
– Two blowout losses on the road have turned Auburn into a profile eerily similar to that of Arkansas. I’m now wondering if both Chad and the Puppet will skewer me for having them ahead of the Hogs at this stage.
– I’m ready to put a team like Northern Iowa above the First Four based on their overall body of work compared to the bubble muck, but I’m not quite ready to do the same for Liberty. Their metrics are okay, but the words “intent to schedule” are going to haunt the Flames come March.
COMMENTS FROM DAVID:
– I normally say that in order to land on the #1 line that a team needs to beat a protected seed away from home, which is something that San Diego State has not done and will not do, but ‘normally’ saying that isn’t the same as ‘always’ saying that. I’ve not yet moved the Aztecs up to my #1 line, but they are getting close. And even though they haven’t beaten a protected seed away from home (or at all), they have won at BYU (which is currently their only home loss) and blew past a really good Creighton team on a neutral floor. So, a case can be made that they belong up there. Oh yeah, and they are undefeated, but a case can be made beyond just that.
-All and all, John did a pretty good job. I hate to say that, but he did. I totally disagree on Indiana. They do have a nice win against Florida State, and they do have a bloated record, but it came against a weak schedule and most of their wins are against teams with overall losing records, or they’re home wins against teams with losing road records. I think they belong in the field, but not quite on the #6 line.
-Auburn on the #8 line seems about right.
-Houston on the #6 seems a little high, but they did just pick up a big win. I now don’t feel so bad about having them in my 7-8 line range.
COMMENTS FROM CHAD:
– I think a strong case can be made the Louisville belongs even higher than the 4 line. The Cardinals picked up a absolutely HUGE road win this week and now have three Tier 1 road victories and no losses below Tier 1A (the top half of Tier 1).
– I also do not understand how Colorado is a 4 seed, even if they were the very last 4 seed. The Buffs best true road win is at Arizona State, who is not in the field. Their entire resume is propped up by a neutral court win over Dayton. Meanwhile, they have lost twice at home to teams that are one or below the bubble (UNI and Oregon State). I just don’t think that is a protected seed resume. Quite frankly, I would have them 3 or 4 seed lines lower than a 4 seed.
– Houston and Indiana are both overseeded, but David already addressed them. Memphis on the 6 line seems way too high to me as well. Wins over NC State, Tennessee and Cincinnati are the entirety of the Tigers Tier 1 AND Tier 2 resume. That’s not 6 seed caliber in my opinion.
– Oklahoma in the First Four on the 11 line is an under-seeding as well. The Sooners have been quietly putting together a solid resume. They have 5 wins away fro hoe against the top two tiers and only one loss outside of Tier 1A. I think that is at least 9 line good, if not better.
– I think Colgate is a couple lines better than a 15 seed. They won at Cincinnati and have avoided most of the bad losses. John’s 14 seed teams all have a lot more warts on their resumes than the Raiders do.
– All in all, I think John did a fairly good job. I almost completely agree with his choice of teams, though I think a case can be made that Georgetown belongs in above a Tennessee or NC State. It is a close call there, so I will let that issue slide for now. I do, however, completely agree with his 1 seed line.