-For Today’s UTR Game of the Day, and other News, Notes, and Games – CLICK HERE
There are only four weeks remaining in the regular season for most of the major conferences and only three weeks remaining in the regular season for most of the under-the-radar conferences, so we are beginning to get into crunch time with our bracket projections. This week, it is our colleague John Stalica’s turn to do the bracket projection – this is his bracket and NOT a projection of the Selection Committee:
First 4 Out: Minnesota, Memphis, NC State, Cincinnati
Other teams considered: Texas, Syracuse, Utah State, VCU, Tennessee, Pittsburgh, Georgetown, Virginia Tech, Alabama, Furman, UNC-Greensboro
NOTES FROM JOHN:
– While the real NCAA Selection Committee valued teams like Dayton, West Virginia, Villanova and Michigan State quite highly, I’m not completely sold that they should have been seeded as high as they were. I think teams like Florida State and Penn State were undersold, especially the Nittany Lions. I agree that their nonconference SOS is much higher than what you would expect of a protected seed, but my feeling is that it is 1)badly skewed by 4 teams in the bottom 30 of the NET and 2) offset by a dearth of quality wins like Maryland and Michigan State on the road along with a respectable 6-4 record away from Happy Valley.
– Auburn is looking more and more like a team that had one bad week and their quality wins are starting to look more indicative of very high metrics that the Tigers currently possess. With wins against Kentucky and LSU now in hand, Auburn is looking like the favorite to win the SEC right now.
– Purdue and Xavier are a pair of teams that I’m warming up to in the last two weeks, especially the Boilers. Their overall record is ghastly (not unlike Wisconsin), but they are getting more quality wins AND blowout wins in the cases of Michigan State and Iowa. They also got a quality win at Indiana.
– And speaking of the Hoosiers, it is deja vu all over again in Bloomington. It was about this time last season that they went into a deep midseason slump. I still think they’re an NCAA Tournament caliber team, but they would no longer fit the criteria of a “first ballot” team right now. They are only 3-5 away from home with their lone true road win coming at Nebraska. Rutgers will start to have the same question marks if they are unable to win at Ohio State or any of their remaining 3 road games after that.
– I had BYU as my last #9 seed and Mississippi State as my first #10 seed on my overall seed list, but bracketing rules pushed BYU down a seed line for this bracket.
– Arizona State is the only First Four team I felt comfortable placing in the field, and the profiles of teams like Wichita State, Florida, Stanford, Minnesota, NC State, Memphis and Cincinnati smell real bad right now. In the case of the three teams from the American, there might not be enough air freshener to get another at-large team besides Houston in without someone stealing a bid in the conference tournament.
– Prior to Saturday, I would have had Bowling Green as my MAC representative and a likely #14 seed, but with the loss of Dylan Frye (who left the team for personal reasons) and two upcoming games against Akron without him, I’m putting the Zips in as my MAC auto-bid for now.
COMMENTS FROM THE HOOPS HD STAFF
FROM DAVID.
-I totally agree with John and disagree with the committee on Michigan State. The actual committee giving them a protected seed didn’t make much sense, and seeding them ahead of Penn State made no sense at all. When you look at the merit, Penn State seems better in every category accept OOC SOS, which is an important category in the sense that you need to play good teams so you can beat good teams and impress the committee, but should also not be a disqualifier when you’ve beaten better teams than someone else despite playing a weaker overall schedule.
-I’m starting to like Maryland more now that they’ve won at Indiana and at Illinois. My biggest gripe with them was that I thought too many people were seeing that they had beaten good teams, but not seeing that in some of those cases the good teams they had beaten, while good overall, hadn’t played well on the road, and were overvaluing some of their home wins. But, the win at Illinois was very legit, and two of their four road losses were close games at Wisconsin and at Seton Hall, who are both obviously very tough teams to beat on the road.
-Stalica’s bubble perplexes me. I do not get why he selected Arizona State, much less why he says they were the only team he was comfortable putting in the First Four. And while he didn’t put Minnesota, NC State, or Memphis in, he did almost put them in for some strange reason. I think that Cincinnati, Syracuse, Utah State, East Tennessee State (who he has in, but below Arizona State), all have better paper resumes. Not only that, I think they would all beat Arizona State (and Memphis, and NC State, and Minnesota) on a neutral floor if given the chance.
-And he has Florida in the First Four?? Oh, wait. I actually agree with that one. A case could be made that Florida doesn’t belong in at all.
FROM CHAD:
– Let me start with Penn State as well, as I agree with John and David that the Bracket Preview this past weekend undervalued them. One thing that a lot of people are forgetting is that the Big Ten expanded to a 20 game conference schedule this season. That means 2 less non-conference games replaced by two more games against one of the deepest conferences we have ever seen. If you want to knock the Nittany Lions for a 95 overall SOS, I can understand that, but don’t knock them for the N/C SOS when it is going to end up being less than 1/3 of their total schedule (and really it is just four sub-300 games that are really pulling that number down).
– I would have Houston at least 2 seed lines higher. I know the rest of the American is fading, but the Cougars are poised to run away with what is still one of the top 7 or 8 conferences in the country, and are just looking incredibly good on the court right now. To tell a 1 seed you may have to play this team in the second round could be a crime. I would have them on the 6 line myself, and could make a case for the 5 if I had to.
– I am not certain Mississippi State belongs in, and if they do, they should be in Dayton playing in he First Four. A 9 seed is way too high for a team that has not beaten anyone that is clearly in the field (Arkansas and at Florida are bubble team wins), and has two losses to sub-100 teams (and another non-tournament team loss at Alabama).
– There are two A-10 teams that John left out which I believe, right now, should be right in contention — VCU and Richmond. The Spiders have a very interesting resume as Rhode Island’s rise in the standings gives them two wins away from home against tourney teams (they also beat Wisconsin on a neutral court).
– Finally, while NC State did not make John’s field, I cannot figure out why they are even close (first four out). Honestly, if I had to pick another ACC team, I would take Syracuse first (whom John at least considered) and Notre Dame next. The Irish have quietly won 4 straight and, with trips to both Virginia and Duke in store this week, will certainly have a chance to put their name right in the thick of tournament talk.
Bracket Projection (Staff Bracket) – Monday, February 10th
-For Today’s UTR Game of the Day, and other News, Notes, and Games – CLICK HERE
There are only four weeks remaining in the regular season for most of the major conferences and only three weeks remaining in the regular season for most of the under-the-radar conferences, so we are beginning to get into crunch time with our bracket projections. This week, it is our colleague John Stalica’s turn to do the bracket projection – this is his bracket and NOT a projection of the Selection Committee:
First 4 Out: Minnesota, Memphis, NC State, Cincinnati
Other teams considered: Texas, Syracuse, Utah State, VCU, Tennessee, Pittsburgh, Georgetown, Virginia Tech, Alabama, Furman, UNC-Greensboro
NOTES FROM JOHN:
– While the real NCAA Selection Committee valued teams like Dayton, West Virginia, Villanova and Michigan State quite highly, I’m not completely sold that they should have been seeded as high as they were. I think teams like Florida State and Penn State were undersold, especially the Nittany Lions. I agree that their nonconference SOS is much higher than what you would expect of a protected seed, but my feeling is that it is 1)badly skewed by 4 teams in the bottom 30 of the NET and 2) offset by a dearth of quality wins like Maryland and Michigan State on the road along with a respectable 6-4 record away from Happy Valley.
– Auburn is looking more and more like a team that had one bad week and their quality wins are starting to look more indicative of very high metrics that the Tigers currently possess. With wins against Kentucky and LSU now in hand, Auburn is looking like the favorite to win the SEC right now.
– Purdue and Xavier are a pair of teams that I’m warming up to in the last two weeks, especially the Boilers. Their overall record is ghastly (not unlike Wisconsin), but they are getting more quality wins AND blowout wins in the cases of Michigan State and Iowa. They also got a quality win at Indiana.
– And speaking of the Hoosiers, it is deja vu all over again in Bloomington. It was about this time last season that they went into a deep midseason slump. I still think they’re an NCAA Tournament caliber team, but they would no longer fit the criteria of a “first ballot” team right now. They are only 3-5 away from home with their lone true road win coming at Nebraska. Rutgers will start to have the same question marks if they are unable to win at Ohio State or any of their remaining 3 road games after that.
– I had BYU as my last #9 seed and Mississippi State as my first #10 seed on my overall seed list, but bracketing rules pushed BYU down a seed line for this bracket.
– Arizona State is the only First Four team I felt comfortable placing in the field, and the profiles of teams like Wichita State, Florida, Stanford, Minnesota, NC State, Memphis and Cincinnati smell real bad right now. In the case of the three teams from the American, there might not be enough air freshener to get another at-large team besides Houston in without someone stealing a bid in the conference tournament.
– Prior to Saturday, I would have had Bowling Green as my MAC representative and a likely #14 seed, but with the loss of Dylan Frye (who left the team for personal reasons) and two upcoming games against Akron without him, I’m putting the Zips in as my MAC auto-bid for now.
COMMENTS FROM THE HOOPS HD STAFF
FROM DAVID.
-I totally agree with John and disagree with the committee on Michigan State. The actual committee giving them a protected seed didn’t make much sense, and seeding them ahead of Penn State made no sense at all. When you look at the merit, Penn State seems better in every category accept OOC SOS, which is an important category in the sense that you need to play good teams so you can beat good teams and impress the committee, but should also not be a disqualifier when you’ve beaten better teams than someone else despite playing a weaker overall schedule.
-I’m starting to like Maryland more now that they’ve won at Indiana and at Illinois. My biggest gripe with them was that I thought too many people were seeing that they had beaten good teams, but not seeing that in some of those cases the good teams they had beaten, while good overall, hadn’t played well on the road, and were overvaluing some of their home wins. But, the win at Illinois was very legit, and two of their four road losses were close games at Wisconsin and at Seton Hall, who are both obviously very tough teams to beat on the road.
-Stalica’s bubble perplexes me. I do not get why he selected Arizona State, much less why he says they were the only team he was comfortable putting in the First Four. And while he didn’t put Minnesota, NC State, or Memphis in, he did almost put them in for some strange reason. I think that Cincinnati, Syracuse, Utah State, East Tennessee State (who he has in, but below Arizona State), all have better paper resumes. Not only that, I think they would all beat Arizona State (and Memphis, and NC State, and Minnesota) on a neutral floor if given the chance.
-And he has Florida in the First Four?? Oh, wait. I actually agree with that one. A case could be made that Florida doesn’t belong in at all.
FROM CHAD:
– Let me start with Penn State as well, as I agree with John and David that the Bracket Preview this past weekend undervalued them. One thing that a lot of people are forgetting is that the Big Ten expanded to a 20 game conference schedule this season. That means 2 less non-conference games replaced by two more games against one of the deepest conferences we have ever seen. If you want to knock the Nittany Lions for a 95 overall SOS, I can understand that, but don’t knock them for the N/C SOS when it is going to end up being less than 1/3 of their total schedule (and really it is just four sub-300 games that are really pulling that number down).
– I would have Houston at least 2 seed lines higher. I know the rest of the American is fading, but the Cougars are poised to run away with what is still one of the top 7 or 8 conferences in the country, and are just looking incredibly good on the court right now. To tell a 1 seed you may have to play this team in the second round could be a crime. I would have them on the 6 line myself, and could make a case for the 5 if I had to.
– I am not certain Mississippi State belongs in, and if they do, they should be in Dayton playing in he First Four. A 9 seed is way too high for a team that has not beaten anyone that is clearly in the field (Arkansas and at Florida are bubble team wins), and has two losses to sub-100 teams (and another non-tournament team loss at Alabama).
– There are two A-10 teams that John left out which I believe, right now, should be right in contention — VCU and Richmond. The Spiders have a very interesting resume as Rhode Island’s rise in the standings gives them two wins away from home against tourney teams (they also beat Wisconsin on a neutral court).
– Finally, while NC State did not make John’s field, I cannot figure out why they are even close (first four out). Honestly, if I had to pick another ACC team, I would take Syracuse first (whom John at least considered) and Notre Dame next. The Irish have quietly won 4 straight and, with trips to both Virginia and Duke in store this week, will certainly have a chance to put their name right in the thick of tournament talk.