CLICK HERE for our CHAMPIONSHIP WEEK VIDEO NOTEBOOK: DAY 4
-Outside of conference tournament play, there will be three more teams eliminated from the Survival Board today:
-IVY LEAGUE: Brown is out if they lose (at Dartmouth) or if Penn wins (home vs Columbia). If Brown wins and Penn loses, Penn is out.
-SOUTHLAND: One of Texas A&M-Corpus Christi, McNeese State, Northwestern State or Central Arkansas will be eliminated. The tiebreakers are so complicated, they are not worth trying to figure out; however, essentially anyone that wins today has a great shot at remaining alive and anyone that loses has a good chance to be the team eliminated.
-BIG WEST: Cal Poly is eliminated with a loss or with a win by Cal State-Fullerton. If Cal Poly wins and Fullerton loses, either team may be eliminated based on tiebreakers that will depend on the results of all four games in the league today. It appears that Cal Poly’s only path to a berth in the Big West tournament may to be win today, have Fullerton lose, and have both Hawai’i and UC-Riverside win as well.
-13 conferences will end their regular seasons today: ACC, A10, Big East, Big Sky, Big 12, Big West, Conference USA, Ivy League, Pac 12, SEC, Souuthland, SWAC and WAC. Keep an eye on the Conference Tournaments tab for bracket announcements.
-VILLANOVA AT GEORGETOWN (Big East). Villanova is one of several teams that is fighting for a spot on the #2 line. This could be a tough road game as Georgetown has pulled off several surprises this year, but if they pick it up and avoid an early exit in the Big East Tournament then they have a strong case for the #2 line.
-AUBURN AT TENNESSEE (SEC). Auburn has been slipping some, but they are still safely in the top half of the bracket. Tennessee is coming off a huge win against Kentucky, and they still have an outside shot at making the field if they can win this game and then pick up some big wins in the SEC Tournament.
-WISCONSIN AT INDIANA (Big Ten). Wisconsin has been on fire for the last several weeks with six straight wins, and can pick up another big one before they head into the Big Ten Tournament. It’s not outrageous to think the Badgers could end up as a protected seed if they keep winning like they have been.
-MARQUETTE AT SAINT JOHN’S (Big East). Marquette still appears to be very safely in the field, but they have been slipping. This is a winnable road game that will help them shore things up if they’re able to pull it off.
-SOUTH CAROLINA AT VANDERBILT (SEC). It will require some big wins in the SEC Tournament, but South Carolina still has a chance of landing inside the bubble.
-BAYLOR AT WEST VIRGINIA (Big 12). West Virginia has been slipping, but they are coming off a win at Iowa State that snapped a stretch where they had lost six out of seven. A win today would have them completely back on track. Baylor still looks like they will land on the #1 line, and I think a win today would basically lock it up no matter what happens in the Big 12 Tournament next week.
-KENTUCKY AT FLORIDA (SEC). Kentucky is coming off a somewhat surprising loss to Tennessee, but it won’t set them back too much, especially if they can pull off a road win like this at Florida. The Gators look to be pretty safe and still have a strong path to the top half of the bracket if they can finish strong, but they still haven’t played up to the level we were expecting this year.
-KANSAS AT TEXAS TECH (Big 12). Kansas is already a virtual lock for a #1 seed, and a win today would probably make them an actual lock. If they win today and miss the bus to the Big 12 Tournament, they’re probably still on the #1 line. Texas Tech has been slipping, but is still relatively safe. A win today would really help their seeding, though.
-GEORGIA AT LSU (SEC). LSU has been slipping, but is still safely inside the bubble and will be fine so long as they hold serve today. They still have a chance to really improve their seed if they can play well in the SEC Tournament.
-RUTGERS AT PURDUE (Big Ten). This may be the single most important game of the day in regards to how much it means to the two teams. I think both teams need the win to have a strong case to make it to the NCAA Tournament without the auto-bid. Rutgers has just one win away from home. No team has ever been selected with fewer than two true road wins and fewer than three wins away from home, and in looking at the bubble last year the committee strongly favored teams that had won away from home. Purdue has a good resume, but the number of losses may give the committee pause. However, a win today puts them in really good shape heading into the Big Ten Tournament.
-SETON HALL AT CREIGHTON (Big East). Both teams are likely protected seeds and both have a shot at ending up on the #2 line. Seton Hall can win the Big East outright with a win today. Creighton can at least tie for it if they win.
-COLORADO AT UTAH (Pac 12). Colorado has digressed a little bit in the last week or so, but they are still a very strong team and are capable of playing at a very high level. If they win this game and play well in the Pac 12 Tournament they should easily land in the top half of the bracket.
-UCLA AT USC (Pac 12). UCLA still isn’t a unanimous pick among those who do bracketology, but It looks to me like they belong in for sure if they’re able to win today. They have been one of the hottest teams in the country. USC appears to be in the field, but in the bottom half of the bracket. A win today would really help out their seeding as well. This is also a rivalry game, so there’s that too.
-LOUISVILLE AT VIRGINIA (ACC). Virginia keeps winning ugly, but they keep winning. If they knock off Louisville at home today I think it actually puts them not just inside the bubble, but perhaps makes them a lock. Louisville will likely end up as a protected seed barring a bunch of unforeseen craziness whether they win this one or not, but it is the kind of road win that would look really nice on their resume and would help move them up the seedlist.
-PENN STATE AT NORTHWESTERN (Big Ten). This is a winnable road game for Penn State who has been struggling a little bit, but is still in very good shape and could still end up as a protected seed if they can give a strong showing in the Big Ten Tournament.
-OKLAHOMA STATE AT TEXAS (Big 12). Texas looks like they are on the verge of playing their way into the field. If they avoid stubbing their toes today and can pick up a win in the Big 12 Tournament, I think they’re in.
-BOSTON COLLEGE AT FLORIDA STATE (ACC). Florida State is on fire and could end up as high as the #2 line. They just need to hold serve until the NCAA Tournament.
-ARKANSAS AT TEXAS A&M (SEC). Arkansas has a steep uphill climb, but they can still land inside the bubble. I think they need to win today, and then win at least two in the SEC Tournament.
-SAM HOUSTON STATE AT STEPHEN F AUSTIN (Southland). If SFA wins this game and doesn’t win in the Southland Tournament they will have at least an outside shot of making the field.
-NORTH CAROLINA AT DUKE (ACC). This edition of the rivalry doesn’t have the splash that it usually does. North Carolina is just trying to salvage part of their season, and Duke is playing for seeding the rest of the way. In this case, at least on paper, it’s a game where Duke just needs to hold serve. But, like they say, this rivalry has a tendency to always deliver!
-OKLAHOMA AT TCU (Big 12). This is a hugely important game for an Oklahoma team that looks to be squarely on the bubble. A road win helps assure that they land on the right side of it.
-DEPAUL AT PROVIDENCE (Big East). Some experts are still not putting Providence in because of what a rough start they had to the season, but they have been thundering down the stretch and if they hold serve today I almost think they should be in regardless of what happens in the conference tournament. I guess we will see what happens and if the committee agrees.
-OLE MISS AT MISSISSIPPI STATE (SEC). Mississippi State appears to be outside the bubble. They need to avoid a loss in this game and then pick up at least one (and probably more) big wins in the SEC Tournament.
-WASHINGTON STATE AT ARIZONA STATE (Pac 12). Arizona has lost three straight and needs to stop the bleeding. If they hold serve today and pick up at least one win in the Pac 12 Tournament then they should be safe for a bid.
-GEORGE WASHINGTON AT DAYTON (Atlantic Ten). Dayton is a lock for a protected seed, will likely end up on the #2 line, and could end up on the #1 line if everything breaks right.
-SAINT BONAVENTURE AT SAINT LOUIS (Atlantic Ten). I think SLU is outisde the bubble, but I think if they can win out and play their way into the A10 Championship game that they will get a serious look and that the committee will end up taking them.
-TEMPLE AT CINCINNATI (American). Cincinnati is squarely on the bubble and basically can’t afford any slipups to non-tournament teams and also needs some big wins in the conference tournament.
-BUTLER AT XAVIER (Big East). Butler is safely in the field, but they are still playing for seeding and have slipped a little bit. Xavier is inside the bubble and I think is just one win away from becoming a virtual lock. A win today and a win in the Big East Tournament may even get them into the top half of the bracket.
-WASHINGTON AT ARIZONA (Pac 12). Arizona is a virtual lock for The Dance, but their seed and profile could use some improvement If they hold serve today and play well in the conference tournament next week it will help improve their resume.
-STANFORD AT OREGON (Pac 12). Stanford is right outside the bubble and I think they need to win this game to have a serious chance of getting in. Oregon is trying to lock up a protected seed and should be able to do that with a win today.