Before you go any further, I just want to make sure you know what you are looking at. This is NOT an attempt to guess what the actual committee will actually do in March, nor is it an attempt to suppose what the actual committee would do if today were Selection Sunday. These are entirely my own picks based on what has happened so far this season. If you want a selection committee guessing expert’s picks, check out Jon Teitel’s bracket. He’s way better at that than I have ever been or will ever be.
Below are some of my comments. Below that are some comments/criticisms from the staff. If they disagree with anything I have done, THEN THEY SHOULD BE IGNORED!!! I AM ALWAYS RIGHT!!!
OTHERS CONSIDERED: Penn State, Providence, Syracuse, LSU, Georgia Tech, Utah State, VCU, Arkansas, Auburn Duke, SMU.
Yes, despite having a losing overall record, Penn State has a pretty good profile and is close to my bubble.
COMMENTS FROM DAVID:
-I’ll start with what I think is most obvious, and that is the sheer number of UTR teams that are inside the bubble. Drake, Loyola Chicago, Western Kentucky and Toledo are all seeded above the First Four, and while you can’t tell by looking at this bracket, I actually have Belmont sandwiched in between Colorado State and North Carolina. That is not something I am expecting the actual committee to do, and truth be told some of those teams’ resumes do not top out as high as a few of the teams I have them ahead of, but when I look at how well they’re playing now, and the wins that they do have (either on the road against teams who are good at home, or in the case of WKU against a protected seed) I think they’re better than the teams I have behind them.
-Iowa on the #6 line is probably going to make some people scratch their heads. I’m not seeing the protected seed caliber win on their resume. Furthermore, when they’ve had opportunities to pick up a protected seed caliber win, they have failed to do it. Several times. To me, that means they’re not a protected seeded caliber team. They may get up there by the end of the year, but they’re not there yet.
-You know who does have multiple protected seeded caliber wins?? Oklahoma! They’ve really turned it on these past few weeks and have put some high caliber wins on their resume.
CHAD’S COMMENTS
– I will start with Iowa (though I should start with why David did not make Missouri a 4 seed and set up the potential second round game with Kansas, but I really don’t want to go there). I understand that they do not have any HUGE wins on their profile. But their wins are all very strong. At Rutgers, at Maryland and home against Purdue, north Carolina and Minnesota (plus a sweep of Northwestern), On the loss side, neutral court Gonzaga, at Illinois and at Minnesota (who beats everyone at home) are all easily excusable as well. The only knock is a home loss to Indiana, who is still a very good team. Let’s compare that to a team David thinks (for some reason) is a protected seed — Tennessee. Given the way Kansas is playing right now, the only quality win I really see on their profile is at Missouri. I would honestly flip these two teams completely in his bracket.
– I understood not liking Illinois’ profile before this weekend, but they won one of the best games of the entire season over the weekend when they beat Iowa. I guess if you think Iowa stinks (as David does), the Illini would be on the 6 line. I would have them 2 lines higher, and cases could be made to put them even higher than that.
– Maryland is 8-8 versus D1 competition and 3-7 in the Big Ten. Road wins at Illinois, Wisconsin and Minnesota are incredible, but you cannot completely ignore the record. I think the Terps belong in the field, but the 7 line is just flat out stupid — they are an 11 or 12 seed and may belong in the First Four. #StupidPuppet
– Seton Hall is an 11 seed according to David. While that is not in the field by much, I don’t understand why the Pirates are in the field at all. They have exactly one win against a tournament team (at Xavier). On the other hand they have two losses to teams not in the field (Rhode Island and Providence) and are only 9-8 overall. I am all for putting teams with quality profiles in the field despite their overall record, especially this year. I just do not look at Seton Hall and see a quality profile. I see a good team that cannot win close games, and that is not good enough for me.
– Saint Louis is in David’s field. Richmond is in David’s field. Why? The Billikens were hit hard by COVID and have only played 8 games, which I understand, but they have only one win against the top two tiers, have not beaten anyone in David’s field and their next road win will be their first. That is not good enough to be in at this time. Richmond does have three Tier 1 road wins, but the only tournament caliber win was at Loyola-Chicago. They also have bad home losses to Hofstra and La Salle. The Spiders belong “on the board”, but are not nearly good enough to be in the field yet.
– Where is Arkansas? I get it that the Razorbacks have not beaten a tournament-caliber team, but their 5 losses are Tier 1 and on the road (other than Missouri at home). I will take their profile over Loyola-Chicago’s (losses to Richmond and Indiana State and only two wins in the top two tiers) in a blind resume test 10 times out of 10. Honestly, if the Hogs played in the SoCon or MAC, with the same exact resume, I think David would have them as an 8 seed. This is bias against them because they are in a power conference, and it is unacceptable at this point.
– I agree with David’s Penn State comments — so why didn’t he do the right thing and put them in the field? The Nittany Lions have one of the top 50 profiles in the nation, plain and simple. I really do not understand Maryland as a 7 seed with a .500 record against D1 while Penn State is out with one less loss, a very comparable profile and a record only one game under .500. Once again, #StupidPuppet.