HoopsHD kicks off the greatest time of the year with a 2-part preview of every single conference tourney in the nation. Jon Teitel commences our coverage with his predictions for the 14 conference tourneys getting underway before March 6th, and you can check back next weekend for his picks concerning the 17 other conference tourneys.
*Due to some conference tourneys starting in February while other conferences’ regular seasons are not yet complete you will notice many things in flux: we will try to update the seeding/stats that change in the days ahead but the picks will remain the same.
America East tourney predicted champ: Vermont (#2 seed)
Dates: February 26-March 13
Location: Campus sites
2019 tourney champ: Vermont (#1 seed)
Fun fact: Vermont has made each of past 4 title games
Seeding: each of past 5 champs were top-2 seed
It is usually hard to get excited about a 10-win team that lost 2 in a row at home to NJIT/Albany earlier this year, but the Catamounts have gone 8-1 since those losses and have owned this tourney for the past several years so you have to like their chances. Fans might have been concerned after star player Anthony Lamb graduated last year but last year’s award winners have become this year’s stars in 2020 conference DPOY Ben Shungu/2021 conference POY Ryan Davis. Since the higher seed will host each tourney game in which they play, Vermont cannot wait to welcome teams to Patrick Gymnasium where they have lost exactly 2 home games this season by a combined 2 PTS. Coach John Becker knows how to win games in March: he made a postseason tourney during each of his 1st 8 years as the head man in Burlington and probably would have made it last year were it not for COVID.
Atlantic Sun tourney predicted champ: Bellarmine (#2 seed)
Dates: March 3-7
Location: Jacksonville, FL
2020 tourney champ: Liberty (#1 seed)
Fun fact: 5 different champs since 2014
Seeding: 9 of past 10 champs were top-2 seed
Bellarmine and Liberty separated themselves from the rest of field all season long and wrapped up the season this weekend with a 16-PT road win by Liberty in Freedom Hall. Bellarmine is ineligible for the NCAA tourney so the conference tourney is their Super Bowl. Coach Scott Davenport might be new to D-1 head coaching but he has more experience than most of his opponents: he was a grad assistant to Denny Crum, assistant to Rick Pitino, and won a D-2 national title 10 years ago while being named D-2 national COY. And considering their PG is named “Penn”, who did you think I was going to pick?! Give me Liberty or give me death…on 2nd thought just give me the Knights! 
A-10 tourney predicted champ: Richmond (#8 seed)
Dates: March 3-14
Location: Richmond, VA & Dayton, OH
2019 tourney champ: St. Louis (#6 seed)
Fun fact: 5 different champs since 2015
Seeding: only 1 of past 9 champs were top-2 seed
This tourney has not been kind to top-2 seeds in the past so you should think twice before just giving the trophy to VCU or St. Bonaventure. The Spiders have proven they can win away from home against all kinds of teams such as Kentucky on the road in November and Loyola Chicago in Indianapolis in December. Coach Chris Mooney has used the exact same starting lineup in every single game (featuring 4 seniors/1 sophomore) and that continuity/experience is why teams win games in March. It also helps that the majority of this tourney will be in their backyard and that SR PG Jacob Gilyard is leading the nation with 3.6 SPG.
Big South tourney predicted champ: Winthrop (#1 seed)
Dates: February 27-March 7
Location: Campus sites
2020 tourney champ: Winthrop (#2 seed)
Fun fact: 5 different champs since 2015
Seeding: only 1 of past 6 champs was #1 seed
History shows that this tourney usually features some upsets but we have rarely seen a 1-loss team like the Eagles. They are 20-1 and only a 2-PT home loss to UNC-Asheville away from perfection after blowing an 8-PT lead in the final 5 minutes. Coach Pat Kelsey has 1 of the best PGs in the nation in 2021 conference POY Chandler Vaudrin (6.7 APG) and 1 of the best 6th men in the nation in Adonis Arms (10.7 PPG off the bench). He also has a PF in DJ Burns who was the 3rd-best high school prospect coming out of South Carolina back in 2018 behind a couple of guys named Zion Williamson/Ja Morant! Winthrop is 1 of a handful of teams who actually won a conference tourney in 2020 and they should be a heavy favorite to make it 2 in a row. 
CAA tourney predicted champ: James Madison (#1 seed)
Dates: March 6-9
Location: Harrisonburg, VA
2020 tourney champ: Hofstra (#1 seed)
Fun fact: 4 different champs since 2017
Seeding: each of past 20 champs were top-3 seed
The sentimental pick (as always) is the Tribe because they are 1 of only 4 original D-1 schools (along with Army/Citadel/St. Francis NY) who have never made the NCAA tourney. James Madison started this season 3-4 including home losses to Norfolk State/Morgan State and seemed to be preparing to throw in the towel. However, new coach Mark Byington flipped the switch in early-January and they have won 10 of 11 since then with only a 9-PT road loss at Northeastern in January. SR G Matt Lewis is no stranger to heroics in this tourney (he made a game-winning 3 with 2.7 seconds left in a 2019 CAA tourney win over Towson), but a season-ending knee injury means this tourney is now wide-open. I always get nervous about picking teams who have multiple freshman in their starting lineup, but as long as Justin Amadi/Terell Strickland continue to shoot a combined 40.7 3P% I will continue to believe in the Dukes of Harrisonburg…which is where this tourney will be played.
Horizon tourney predicted champ: Wright State (#2 seed)
Dates: February 25-March 9
Location: Campus sites and Indianapolis, IN
2020 tourney champ: Northern Kentucky (#2 seed)
Fun fact: Northern Kentucky has won this tourney 3 times in past 4 years
Seeding: none of past 5 champs were #1 seed
I love Loudon Love, you love Loudon Love, and unfortunately for Cleveland State this tourney does not love #1 seeds so no love for the Vikings. The Raiders lost 3 of 4 in early-January but then got it going and won 10 of their final 11 with only a 6-PT loss at Northern Kentucky last week. Coach Scott Nagy has more than 500 career wins and needs just 1 more to extend his streak of 19-wins seasons to 11 in a row. Each of his top-4 players are averaging at least 10 PPG/6 RPG so unless you can play some defense or hit the boards they will just keep scoring and rebounding until they win it all. 
MVC tourney predicted champ: Loyola Chicago (#1 seed)
Dates: March 4-7
Location: St. Louis, MO
2020 tourney champ: Bradley (#4 seed)
Fun fact: 4 different champs since 2016
Seeding: 3 of past 5 champs were #4 or #5 seed
The Ramblers lost back-to-back games vs. Wisconsin/Richmond in mid-December but since then they have won 18 of 20 with the 2 losses by a combined 6 PTS. If Drake had a healthy Roman Penn/Tank Hemphill then I would give them some serious consideration, but they do not so this is the Ramblers’ title to lose. The stat that stands out is a best-in-the-nation 55.7 PPG allowed because (as everyone knows) defense wins championships. Coach Porter Moser made the Final 4 in 2018 with now-SR Cameron Krutwig so they both know what it takes to win games in March. 
NEC predicted champ: Wagner (#1 seed)
Dates: March 6-9
Location: Campus sites
2020 tourney champ: Robert Morris (#1 seed)
Fun fact: only 4 champs in past 13 years are Fairleigh Dickinson/Long Island/Mount St. Mary’s/Robert Morris
Seeding: each of past 21 champs were top-4 seed
History tells us to pick a top-4 seed who has been 1 of the only 4 champs during the past 13 years…which is a problem because none of the prior champs are in the top-4 and this year we only have a 4-team conference tourney. I do not love Bryant because they got swept at Fairleigh Dickinson to finish January, but I do not love Wagner because they got swept at Bryant to open conference play. When all else fails just pick the hottest team so let’s go with the Seahawks, who started the season 1-5 (including a double-OT home loss to Sacred Heart) but then won 9 in a row. If Coach Bashir Mason can lead Wagner to its 2nd NCAA tourney appearance ever then they might have to rename Staten Island after him. I just wish FR G DeLonnie Hunt would stop shooting from inside the arc (38.4%) because he is just as good from outside the arc (36.8%). 
OVC predicted champ: Belmont (#1 seed)
Dates: March 3-6
Location: Evansville, IN
2020 tourney champ: Belmont (#1 seed)
Fun fact: 4 different champs in past 5 years
Seeding: 5 of past 7 champs were not #1 seed
The Bruins had 1 of the most inexplicable losses in D-1 this season when they lost to Samford at home by 13 PTS in early-December. On the other hand, I am pretty sure that is the exception rather than the rule as they got off to a 24-1 start! When you consider that Coach Casey Alexander also won each of his final 12 games last year (including the conference title game over Murray State) you start to get a sense of just what an incredible run his team is on. Belmont is automatic inside the arc (62 2P% is #2 in the nation) but the really scary part is that they do not have a single senior on the roster. Their frontcourt stands 6’6”/6’8”/6’11” so they are quite capable of beating up on smaller teams thanks to JR C Nick Muszynski (the defending conference tourney MVP), although if he remains injured then this whole tourney is up for grabs. 
Patriot predicted champ: Colgate (#2 seed)
Dates: March 6-14
Location: Campus sites
2020 tourney champ: Boston University (#3 seed)
Fun fact: Colgate has been in title game in each of past 3 years
Seeding: each of past 4 champs were top-3 seed
Navy is the sentimental favorite: it would be quite a sight to see the Midshipmen win this tourney for the 1st time since 1998. However, my own sentiment lies with my fellow Penn alum Matt Langel, whose only loss all year was by 2 PTS to Army in their 2nd game of the year. The play “Hamilton” was a smash hit on Broadway and the home-cooking that the Raiders will get while playing each of their postseason games in the city of Hamilton as the higher seed should pay similar dividends. They live by the 3 on both offense (38.4% is top-20 in the nation) and defense (26.3% allowed is #1 in the nation). Few things keep a coach calmer in March than a SR PG and Colgate has 1 of the best in the business in 2019 conference tourney MVP Jordan Burns (17.1 PPG/5.5 APG/40.8 3P%/89.8 FT%).
SoCon predicted champ: UNC-Greensboro (#1 seed)
Dates: March 5-8
Location: Asheville, NC
2020 tourney champ: East Tennessee State (#1 seed)
Fun fact: only 3 teams in title game during past 4 years are East Tennessee State/UNC-Greensboro/Wofford
Seeding: each of past 31 champs were top-3 seed
History says that the winner will be 1 of the 3 champs from the past 4 years who are a top-3 seed, leaving us with either UNC-Greensboro or Wofford. Since the 2 teams split their season series in January it appears to be a coin flip, which means we need to find an X-factor. Terrier coach Jay McAuley has been on the sideline for 2 years while Spartan coach Wes Miller is wrapping up his 10th year in Greensboro so the advantage goes to the latter, especially when you consider his championship resume (2005 NCAA title as a player at UNC). He also has a backcourt full of award-winners in SR G Isaiah Miller (2020 conference POY/DPOY) and SO G Keyshaun Langley (2020 conference ROY). 
Summit predicted champ: South Dakota State (#1 seed)
Dates: March 6-9
Location: Sioux Falls, SD
2020 tourney champ: North Dakota State (#1 seed)
Fun fact: only 2 champs from past 9 years are North Dakota State/South Dakota State
Seeding: 13 of past 15 champs were top-2 seed
The Bison and Jackrabbits have owned this tourney for the past decade and we can only pray for a rematch next month after their amazing series earlier this season with all 3 games decided by a combined 5 PTS. South Dakota was looking unstoppable in early-February with a 9-0 record (including a win over the Jackrabbits) before falling on its face with 3 straight road losses in February. Even if they do not have a lot of fans in attendance in Sioux Falls, South Dakota State can still kick butt behind the 3-PT line: their 40.7 3P% is #3 in the nation. The X-factor is FT shooting: it has not cost them yet…but if their opponents continue to shoot 79.6 FT% then they had better pray that they do not end up in a game that comes down to the wire. Defending conference POY Douglas Wilson missed an entire month from early-December to early-January but has been great since returning to the court by leading his team to an 8-3 record. 
Sun Belt predicted champ: Texas State (#1 seed)
Dates: March 5-8
Location: Pensacola, FL
2019 tourney champ: Georgia State (#1 seed)
Fun fact: Georgia State has won 3 titles since 2015
Seeding: 4 of past 5 champs were top-2 seed
Georgia State has owned this league for the past several year but with only 6 conference wins this year it might be time to crown a new champ. This tourney likes the top-2 seeds, and we could have a rather rare title game scenario next month as South Alabama and Texas State have not faced each other since their regular season finale…in 2020. Coach Danny Kaspar resigned last September but Terrence Johnson stepped right in and has not missed a beat, although the nice folks at Our Lady of the Lake might direct your attention to their 3-PT win in San Marcos December! If they can get the job done then we will see them in the NCAA tourney for the 1st time since 1997. 
WCC predicted champ: Gonzaga (#1 seed)
Dates: March 4-9
Location: Las Vegas, NV
2020 tourney champ: Gonzaga (#1 seed)
Fun fact: Gonzaga has won 17 titles in past 22 years and finished 2nd each of the other 5 times
Seeding: 16 of past 17 champs were top-2 seed
Coach Mark Few’s dominance of this conference since taking over in Spokane in 1999 remains almost incomprehensible: 20 straight NCAA tourney appearances, 20 regular season titles, 16 conference tourney titles, and a 13-time conference COY. The Bulldogs have lost exactly 4 regular season/postseason conference games during the past 5 YEARS so the smart money in Vegas is not on the rest of the field. They have a senior who can shoot from outside (Corey Kispert: 45.7 3P%), a sophomore who can score from anywhere (Drew Timme: 64.9 FG%), and a freshman who can do everything (Jalen Suggs: 14.1 PPG/4.3 APG/2 SPG).