The best week of the year is finally here! This is the reason why we ponder the impact of high-school All-Americans, the importance of having a smart/veteran coach, and exactly how many different “Cougars” can make the Final 4. For those of you who need some last-minute bracket advice grounded in historical facts/trends, please see below for our Sweetest 16 Suggestions. For the rest of you, enjoy the Madness!!
TIP #1: No team that lost its opening game in its conference tournament has ever gone on to win the NCAA title that same year.
STRATEGY: The extra few days of rest have not proven helpful in the past so take a long hard look at Villanova (lost to Georgetown in Big East tourney 1st round) before penciling them in as your champ.
TIP #2: Since 1979 only 2 national champions did not have a McDonald’s All-American on their roster (2002 Maryland/2014 UConn).
STRATEGY: A coach who cannot recruit the best high school players usually fails to win it all so beware of picking Illinois/Iowa to go all the way.
TIP #3: The last coach to win a title in his very 1st year as coach at a school was Tubby Smith at Kentucky in 1998.
STRATEGY: History is not on the side of Isaac Brown (Wichita State).
TIP #4: Since UNLV won it all in 1990, 28 of the past 29 champs have come from a power-conference (except for UConn in 2014): ACC (11), SEC (6), Big East (7), Pac-12 (2), Big 12 (1), Big 10 (1).
STRATEGY: You might want to think twice before picking anyone from the A-10/WCC to win it all.
TIP #5: Only 3 coaches with 4 or fewer prior tournament appearances have won the title since 1985 (Steve Fisher/Tom Izzo/Kevin Ollie).
STRATEGY: Teams like Michigan (Juwan Howard has 0 prior tourney appearances)/Connecticut (Dan Hurley has 2 prior tourney appearances) might need a little more seasoning before they can win it all.
TIP #6: Each champ since 2002 had a strength of schedule that was among the top-75 in the nation.
STRATEGY: You have to play the best to learn how to beat the best you might want to stay away from VCU (#79)/Houston (#79).
TIP #7: BYU has played in the most NCAA tournaments (27) without ever making the Final 4.
STRATEGY: If the Cougars could not reach the Final 4 with Danny Ainge/Jimmer Fredette they will probably not make it with this year’s squad.
TIP #8: There are 5 active coaches who have won at least 70% of their NCAA tournament games (minimum 5 wins).
STRATEGY: Do not expect Roy Williams of North Carolina (75.2%)/Chris Beard of Texas Tech (75%) to be catching an early flight home.
TIP #9: There are 5 teams who have won at least 90% of their games in the round of 64 (minimum 5 games).
STRATEGY: Connecticut (18-2)/North Carolina (31-1) are near-automatic in their opening games.
TIP #10: There are 10 teams who have won at least 73% of their games in the round of 32 (minimum 5 games).
STRATEGY: Michigan State (18-6) is looking good vs. the Abilene Christian-Texas winner if they can get by UCLA & BYU, and if not then UCLA (20-7) is not a bad alternative.
TIP #11: There are 7 teams who have won at least 75% of their Sweet 16 games (minimum 5 games).
STRATEGY: Florida (9-2)/Michigan (13-3) have played great in their Sweet 16 games so Arkansas/Florida State should beware.
TIP #12: There are 10 teams who have won at least 70% of their Elite 8 games (minimum 5 games).
STRATEGY: Keep an eye on the #2 seeds in case either Ohio State (11-4)/Houston (5-0) can make it to the 2nd Sunday.
TIP #13: There are 6 teams who have won at least 70% of their Final 4 games (minimum 5 games).
STRATEGY: Michigan is 7-1 in the Final 4 so if you pick them to survive the East Region then you might want to pick them to get all the way to the title game.
TIP #14: There are 13 teams who are undefeated in their NCAA tournament games in a specific state (minimum 5 games).
STRATEGY: It is a shame that Indiana did not make the tourney because it is 10-0 all-time in the state of Indiana.
TIP #15: There are 7 teams who have won at least 70% of their NCAA tournament games as an at-large team (minimum 5 games).
STRATEGY: Do not sleep on Kansas because even though they did not win the Big 12 tourney they still have a terrific track record when they do not get an automatic bid (56-22).
TIP #16: Only 3 teams have won an NCAA title after not being in the tournament the previous year it was held (1986 Louisville/2003 Syracuse/2014 UConn).
STRATEGY: Alabama (2019 NIT)/Illinois (no postseason in 2019) are certainly ready for primetime but might not be ready to go all the way.