Below is David Dorman’s personal bracket. He is not necessarily trying to guess the committee. He is just posting on what he personally thinks the field should look like if today was Selection Sunday. Our panel will share some of our thoughts below..
COMMENTS FROM DAVID DORMAN:
-Last four teams selected were Boise State, Arkansas, Wyoming, and Louisiana Tech
-The teams that were next in line to make the field were: Florida, North Carolina, Michigan, and Mississippi State
-I only have three ACC teams in my bracket as of today, but UNC, Notre Dame, and Florida State are knocking on the door
-This year’s field will have the strongest 13 and 14 seeds The Tournament has seen in a long time
-There was a huge shake up in the conferences earning the auto bid on the 15 and 16 lines the last two weeks and these bids are wide open for any team that steps up and puts together a strong end to January.
COMMENTS FROM THE PUPPET:
-I do kind of like his #1 line, although I think Arizona needs more at the top of their resume before I anoint them a #1 seed. If they win at UCLA and USC, then I’ll be ready to put them all the way up there.
-As a bracketing rule, I also like that David just said “Screw it!! BYU is going to Chicago!!” All kidding aside, I don’t mind at all that BYU does not want to play on Sundays, but there are times it makes it hard to build the bracket.
-I like Murray State more than a #12 seed, especially if they continue to blow through the Ohio Valley. I know their win at Memphis is starting to lose some of its sparkle, but if you look at them on the court they are really good and definitely worthy of a spot inside the bubble.
-I continue to be the only one at Hoops HD that thinks Marquette is clearly better than a #8 seed. Others don’t even have them that high. How are they not at least a #6?? WHAT DO THEY HAVE TO DO!!?? The voters don’t seem to like them either. They belong in the Top 25!
-As someone who was banging the drum for Ohio U to be inside the bubble, I am not banging it anymore. Getting blown out at home by Toledo will make you change your mind. The #13 line now seems to be where they belong.
COMMENTS FROM CHAD:
– I agree with the Puppet about Arizona just not having a profile as good as most of the 2 seeds so far, but they definitely have a chance to get it there, beginning this week. I would have given the fourth 1 seed to Kansas (for now).
– I am surprised that Griggs was not upset with Houston on the 3 line. I agree with it completely and believe there is a case for them to be even higher. This team, no matter how many players it loses, just keeps winning. I cannot blame them for their conference being lousy around them — and they are even fixing that by moving to the Big 12 in a couple seasons.
– I would not have had Xavier this high (4 seed). I get that the Musketeers have no bad losses, but they also do not have a win away from home against a tournament team (I know they won at Oklahoma State but even that would not be a tournament-level win if the Cowboys were eligible). I could see the X-Men as low as a 7 seed right now.
– Dorman has Marquette on the 8 line. Griggs loves this Marquette team and wants them on the 6 line. Maybe I need my head examined, but I would have had them on the 5 or even 4 line right now! I absolutely love the way they are playing and I love their profile. The Golden Eagles have won 6 in a row, with four of those games being wins over Providence, Seton Hall, Xavier and at Villanova. The top of their profile is among the best in the nation, and I can now very easily forgive their losses (none of which are to bad teams at all!)
– I will forgive Dorman the BYU slip-up (sending them to a Friday-Sunday region) as even the NCAA has made that mistake before. In fact, in doing a personal bracket this week, I had to move BYU from the 8 line up to the 6 line to find a site that fit their “No Sundays” rule and simultaneously avoided a second round matchup against Gonzaga. The more WCC teams that make the field, the harder it is to find a spot for BYU that meets their requirements.
– I have a feeling that Dorman and I value the Big East very differently, as I also think he has Creighton way under-seeded on the 10 line. They have beaten Villanova, BYU on a neutral court and won at the Marquette team that I just praised. I could see the Bluejays as high as a 6 seed right now, even with the bad home loss to Arizona State.
– I agree with Griggs that Murray State may be a few lines too low on the 12 line, but the bigger issue I have on that line is the First Four game between Wyoming and Louisiana Tech. I can live with Wyoming in the field (though I would not have had them in ), but Louisiana Tech is not an at-large caliber team after their loss at home to UAB this weekend. The Bulldogs have no Tier 1 wins. The Bulldogs’ only Tier 2 win was at Santa Clara, a team nowhere near the Bubble. On top of that, they only have two Tier 3 wins! I can find teams in the middle of the Patriot League standings with more wins against the top three tiers than that. Sorry, Dorman, but they do NOT belong.
– I would have Florida and/or Florida State in my field as of right now over La Tech and maybe Wyoming. Both teams are playing well right now and have enough good wins to make up for some bad losses (especially the Gators’ awful home blowout loss to Texas Southern). I also cannot figure out why everyone seems to have totally written St. Bonaventure off. I get that their NET is 92, but they have neutral court wins over Marquette and Boise State and only one bad loss. I like that better than a lot of teams that made the field, and would at least have them in my top four teams out.
COMMENTS FROM JOHN:
– I think we’re all in agreement that the triumvirate of Auburn/Gonzaga/Baylor would be the top three overall seeds. As to my fourth #1 seed, I could see an argument potentially being made for Purdue given their number of Tier 1 wins, although three losses would be a deal-breaker at this checkpoint in the season.
– Providence is a team that is definitely capable of being a protected seed (keep in mind they do have wins at Wisconsin, at UConn and at home against Texas Tech), but they also had a recent Covid pause and are looking to reschedule games at Creighton, at Seton Hall and at home against UConn. Winning at Xavier (who is probably more deserving of a 5 or 6 seed themselves right now) would certainly help to fill in a blank like that, but easier said than done.
– One team that is quietly impressing me is the TCU Horned Frogs. Dorman has them as a 10 right now – I could even be convinced that they could move a little higher up than that now that they have a pair of road wins in Big 12 play that includes a sandblasting of Iowa State from last Saturday. The neutral-court loss against Santa Clara is their only bad loss at the moment, although having a noncon SOS near 300 is going to really hurt them should they find themselves squarely on the bubble come March. They have winnable games at home against Texas and LSU this week.
– I’m also not seeing the case for Louisiana Tech right now – I think Florida State would be my last team in now that they have a season sweep of fellow bubble buddy Miami. I also think that the NET is way overrating North Carolina right now. They literally have one win in the Top 2 tiers and nothing else.
– I think the Puppet was half right on the Ohio Bobcats. They are no longer what I’d call at-large worthy, but I’d also say that the Toledo Rockets have better metrics PLUS the road win in Athens that looms even larger now. UT should be the MAC auto-bid at this checkpoint.