SURVIVAL BOARD UPDATE (click here to view)
-Columbia became the first team that was actually eligible for postseason play t to be eliminated from the Hoops HD Survival Board last night after their lost to Harvard. There are now just 346 teams remaining!!
HIGHLIGHTED GAMES
-TCU AT BAYLOR (Big 12). I seem to think TCU is in better shape than most of the rest of the Hoops HD staff, but we all agree that they are inside the bubble. We also all agree that Baylor is a protected seed. So, this game has a Round of 32ish feel to it.
-ILLINOIS AT MICHIGAN STATE (Big Ten). Both of these teams have struggled over the past week or so, but both are still in the rankings and both are still within reach of a protected seed. Illinois has struggled on the road this year, and in recent weeks Michigan State has just not played up to their ceiling, so it’s a chance for whoever wins to get things turned around.
-XAVIER AT UCONN (Big East). Both teams appear to be in the top half of the bracket, but both have also been slipping a little bit, especially Xavier, who is coming off a home loss to Saint John’s. Xavier did win the first match-up between these two a short while ago, but winning on the road is a much taller order.
-TEXAS TECH AT TEXAS (Big 12). It’s Round 2 of what is quickly turning in to one of the biggest feuds in college basketball!! This one won’t be quite as hostile as the first meeting in Lubbock, but it will still likely be hostile. Both teams are in the rankings, and Texas Tech is on pace to get a protected seed, but could really use this road win because if there is one area where they are lacking somewhat, it’s true road wins.
-ALABAMA AT KENTUCKY (SEC). Kentucky is coming off a rather decisive loss at Tennessee, but prior to that they had been looking like a #1 seed. They won the first meeting at Alabama earlier this year, so they’ll definitely have the advantage at home. But, Alabama has a high ceiling. They don’t always play up to it, but they did win a big game against Gonzaga out in Seattle earlier this year.
-NOTRE DAME AT WAKE FOREST (ACC). This is a very bubblicoius game. We have both teams inside our bubble, but neither team is safe, and both could really use this win.
-DAYTON AT SAINT JOSEPH’S (Atlantic Ten). I don’t think Dayton can get all the way inside the bubble, but I also don’t think it is entirely impossible. They’ll have to win out to be seriously considered.
-AUBURN AT FLORIDA (SEC). Auburn looks to be on the path to a #1 seed, and Florida looks to be barely clinging on to the bubble. A win for either team would really help them get what they want.
-KANSAS STATE AT OKLAHOMA STATE (Big 12). We had Kansas State outside our bubble the other night, but I personally strongly disagree with that. I think that not only are they in right now, but that they are several lines above the First Four. Nevertheless, they need a strong finish either way, and this is the kind of game they need to be able to win.
-OKLAHOMA AT IOWA STATE (Big 12). Another very important Big 12 game between two teams that are within reach of the Tournament and who both need to shore up their resumes in order to lock in a spot.
-IOWA AT OHIO STATE (Big Ten). I personally think Iowa is straddling the bubble right now, but other experts say they are much further in. If they can win this game on the road, I will agree, but that is much easier said than done.
-SAINT LOUIS AT DAVIDSON (Atlantic Ten). Saint Louis may have their at-large hopes barely flickering, but they would almost have to win this game in order to have any chance at all. Davidson is inside the bubble for now, but needs to avoid losses in games like this in order to stay there.
-LSU AT SOUTH CAROLINA (SEC). This should be a winnable game for an LSU team that went into a tailspin a little while ago, but appears to have come out of it.
-TENNESSEE AT ARKANSAS (SEC). Arkansas is suddenly one of the hotter teams in the country. They did lose at Alabama (by 1) last week, but have still won 10 of their last 11 and have been especially tough at home. Tennessee is coming off a big home win against Kentucky. If they can pull this off on the road, their resume will REALLY skyrocket.
-AIR FORCE AT WYOMING (Mountain West) (Front Range). We at Hoops HD Love the Front Range!!! Wyoming is coming off a rather surprising loss at New Mexico, but should be able to bounce back at home against their Front Range rivals.
-NORTH TEXAS AT UAB (Conference USA). I believe this game has at-large implications for North Texas. If they can win it, they’ll have a very solid resume, and the committee should STRONGLY consider selecting them even if they don’t win the conference tournament.
-NORTH CAROLINA AT VIRGINIA TECH (ACC). I’ve been riding UNC hard all year. They’re coming off a home loss to Pittsburgh, and are clearly outside the bubble, but if they can win this game they should be back in the discussion. VA Tech is probably not a tournament team, but they are very tough to beat in Blacksburg, and UNC will deserve credit if they’re able to do it. I don’t think they can, but if they do, I’ll agree that they at least belong on the bubble.
-MURRAY STATE AT UT MARTIN (Ohio Valley). Murray State is on cruise control and should make the NCAA Tournament on the first ballot regardless of what happens in the OVC Tournament if they can win their last few regular season games.
-GEORGETOWN AT VILLANOVA (Big East). Georgetown is the defending Big East Champs!! That’s probably of very little consolation. They are having the kind of season they’d ver much like to forget. Nova is coming off a big win at Providence, they are within reach of a first place finish, and well within reach of a protected seed if they hold serve the rest of the way.
-SIUE AT BELMONT (Ohio Valley). Belmont is outside the bubble, but will probably get a look if they can win out to the conference tournament championship game. That would also include a win at Murray State.
-VIRGINIA AT MIAMI FL (ACC). Miami FL is inside the bubble and will remain safe so long as they hold serve. Virginia’s chances of getting in are way less than 50%, but if they can absolutely thunder down the stretch they should have a chance.
-FLORIDA STATE AT DUKE (ACC). Duke is on pace to get a protected seed and shouldn’t have any trouble holding serve in this one.
-DRAKE AT LOYOLA CHICAGO (Mountain West). Loyola is inside the bubble and will obviously stay there if they take care of business the rest of the way. The problem is that they’ve shown tendencies of being unable to take care of business. They nearly lost to Valpo their last time out, and this is a Drake team that is pretty touch, so they need to play up to their ceiling if they want to be in a position of not needing to win Arch Madness to make The Field.
-UTAH STATE AT BOISE STATE (Mountain West). Boise has dropped a few games recently, but they’ve all been tough games against good teams and I still think they are a solid tournament team. They should be able to win this one at home tonight.
-KANSAS AT WEST VIRGINIA (Big 12). Kansas has a path to a #1 seed, and West Virginia appears to have a better chance of ending up in the NIT than the NCAA Tournament. Still, it’s a tough place to win on the road at.
-DEPAUL AT SETON HALL (Big East). Seton Hall is in our field for now, but they could be in for a rough finish to the season given some of the injuries they’ve sustained. It’s important that they win the games they’re supposed to win, which includes home games against non-tournament teams.
-COLORADO STATE AT UNLV (Mountain West). The Rams have really come to life lately and this is a very winnable road game for them.
-SANTA CLARA AT GONZAGA (West Coast). Santa Clara is a program that is definitely improving, but I don’t think they’re a tournament caliber team just yet, and they certainly aren’t expected to beat the #1 team on the road. Now, if they can do that, THEN I’ll say they’re a tournament caliber team!!
-OREGON AT ARIZONA (Pac 12). Oregon’s loss to Arizona State earlier this week really hurts. It probably means that they need a win like this in order to be considered safely inside the bubble. It also means they’re probably not good enough to win a game like this. Arizona is a team that looks like they could end up with a #1 seed if they keep playing like they have been.
-WASHINGTON AT UCLA (Pac 12). UCLA is a solid protected seed, and while Washington appears to be improving, they also don’t look to be at a level to where they can beat a protected seed on the road.
-COLORADO AT STANFORD (Pac 12). Some say Stanford’s at-large hopes are still barely flickering. If that’s the case then they won’t be if they don’t win this one.
-BYU AT SAINT MARY’S (West Coast). BYU has not played what I would call a good game in about a month, and their tournament chances are rapidly declining. Saint Mary’s, on the other hand, is coming off a solid win against San Francisco and appears to be a safe bet to make the field. BYU almost needs a win like this to shore up their resume.
-SAN DIEGO STATE AT FRESNO STATE (Mountain West). San Diego State is squarely on the bubble and winning this on the road would really help them out.
UNDER THE RADAR WATCH:
-AMERICA EAST – Vermont has clinched first place and will have home court advantage throughout
ASUN – looks to be a two-horse race between Liberty and Jacksonville State coming down the stretch
-BIG SKY – Montana State has a one game lead over Weber State and Southern Utah in the Big Sky with four games to go, including a very pivotal game at Southern Utah today
-BIG SOUTH – Longwood has clinched first place in the East Division and has a 1 game lead over Winthrop for the overall #1 seed with 3 games to go.
-BIG WEST – Long Beach has a two game lead with five games to go
-COLONIAL – three team logjam between UNC Wilmington, Towson, and Hofstra. One game separates the three teams with about 3 games to go
-CONFERENCE USA – mentioned above. Big game between North Texas and UAB today
HORIZON LEAGUE – Cleveland State can clinch at least a share of first place with a win today at Green Bay.
IVY LEAGUE – Yale has a one game lead over Princeton, and the two teams play today. A Yale win would give them a two game lead with three games to go, and a Princeton win would have the teams tied.
METRO ATLANTIC – Iona has a three game lead with five games to go
-MEAC – Norfolk State is a game up on NCCU. The two play on the second to last game of the year, but there are still five games to go.
-MAC – Ohio U, Toledo, Kent State, and suddenly Bufalo are logjammed at the top, and all four are potentially dangerous teams in the Round of 64. Just one game separates all four teams
MISSOURI VALLEY – Loyola Chicago is probably the best team, but they are not running away with it. They have just a one game lead over Missouri State and Northern Iowa with four games to go, the last of which is a road game at Northern Iowa.
-NEC – Wagner has looked like the dominant team, but they have just a one game lead over Bryant with three games to go, and their last regular season game is at Bryant. With this tournament being played at campus sites, that is a very big deal.
-OHIO VALLEY – Murray State can clinch at least a share of first place with a win today at UT Martin
-PATRIOT – Colgate has a two game lead for the best overall record with four games to go. They are at home against Boston U today and can get one step closer to clinching home court in the conference tourney.
-SOCON – Chattanooga can clinch at least a share of first place with a home win today against VMI
-SOUTHLAND – still up in the air. New Orleans has a one game lead over SELA and Nicholls with five games remaining, and UNO will face both those teams in the final five games.
-SUN BELT – Texas State may finally be emerging as the top team in this league. They’ve won six straight, they have a half game lead over Troy with just three games to go. The thing is, their last game of the season is…at Troy.
-SWAC – Southern is currently clinging to first place, but Texas Southern and Alcorn State are just a game back, and there are still five games left
-SUMMIT – South Dakota State has clinched first place and is currently unbeaten in conference play. They’ll still need the auto-bid to make the NCAA’s, but they will likely be a dangerous team if they do
-WAC – Last, but definitely not least. Seattle, Sam Houston, and New Mexico State are all neck and neck and are separated by a half game, and there are still five games to go. New Mexico State has a very tough test at Grand Canyon today, which is one of our favorite UTR Rivalries.