Before you read any further, I want to make sure you know what you are looking at. This IS NOT an attempt to guess what the actual selection committee will do. If that is what you’re looking for, then CLICK HERE to check out Jon Teitel’s Bracket. He is one of the best people on the planet at guessing the selection committee.
What I try to do is EDUCATE the committee!! I instruct them on what they SHOULD be doing, not what I think they will actually do. If there is any discrepancies between my bracket and the one that the actual committee puts together, then it is them that is wrong! I am NEVER wrong!!
Below are some comments on the bracket explaining why I did some of the things I did, and then below that are some comments from the staff. If any of the rest of the staff makes comments that disagree with what I have done, then ignore them! They are wrong!!
OTHERS CONSIDERED: Oregon, Saint Bonaventure, Notre Dame, SMU, San Diego State, Loyola Chicago, Wake Forest, North Carolina, Dayton, Belmont, Virginia Tech
NOTES FROM THE PUPPET:
-I’ll begin with the one thing that I know that’s making peoples’ heads explode, and that is the selection of Kansas State. This is absolutely the correct, and ingenious selection!! Yes, their overall record is 14-14, but their overall SOS is 5, they have three true road wins against teams in the top half of the bracket, and if you look at their 14 losses, four of them are away from home against teams on the #5 line or higher. Those are not the kinds of losses that you’d ding a protected seed for, much less a bubble team. If you were to replace those four losses with four meaningless tier 4 wins, everyone would agree that they belong in. Well…THAT’S WHY THEY STILL BELONG IN!! IT IS THE CORRECT SELECTION!!!!
-The other thing that’s making people jump out of their seats is Kentucky on the #1 line over Kansas. Kentucky has wins away from home against three teams that are likely to be seeded on the #5 line or better, whereas Kansas has zero. Oh yeah, and one of Kentucky’s wins was at Kansas. So, having them up there is absolutely the right decision and anyone who disagrees with it is wrong!!
-VCU is in the bracket. They in every way seem to have a better resume than BYU. The road wins at Davidson, Dayton, and Vanderbilt are respectable, and their worse loss is to a Wagner team that they should have beaten, but that also isn’t nearly as bad as some of the teams that some of the other teams have lost to.
-Saint Bonaventure is VERY close. Their NET is probably making people hold their noses, but when you look at literally everything else on their resume, I think they are very close to a bid.
-It doesn’t feel like Xavier should be in this field based on the tailspin that they’ve been on, and it feels like a team like Saint Bonaventure should be there instead, but I just can’t seem to get them out of my bracket entirely because of the good things they did early in the season. It’s still more than what most other bubble teams have done.
I advise everyone to stop reading now!! NO REASON AT ALL TO READ WHAT THE REST OF THE STAFF HAS TO SAY!!
STAFF COMMENTS:
From Chad:
— David was right to comment that his Kentucky pick on the 1 line may be called out, because it is just awful. Kansas has an amazing *EIGHT* Tier 1 wins away from home. Kentucky has only five. While UK’s resume is very strong, the simple fact is that KU’s blows them away. If the two teams were next to each other on the seed list, I could see the head-to-head win coming into play. They are not. In fact, Kentucky is closer to being a 3 seed right now than a 1.
— I also have no idea why Auburn is still a 1 seed. In the past two weeks, the Tigers have lost twice, once to a Florida team that is only in the field (barely) because of that win. Baylor just beat Kansas, and much like KU, also has *EIGHT* wins away from home against Tier 1. Auburn only has three of those. Auburn is a 2 seed.
— Alabama is under-seeded on the 6 line. In fact, I would have the Tide on the 4 line right now. I get the bad losses at Missouri and Georgia hurt, but 12 wins against the top two tiers is very impressive to me still. And, as seen in David’s nonsensical argument about Kansas State, losses don’t even count for him.
— Michigan and Memphis on the 10 line are both mind-boggling. Michigan is a First Four team right now after their loss this weekend. You cannot ignore the 15-12 overall record or being 5 games under .500 against the top two tiers. The Wolverines are much-improved and very dangerous right now, but they are over-seeded as a 10. However, an even worse choice was Memphis as a 10. This team is not even in my top four out right now. The Tigers have two wins over teams in the field (Alabama home and Houston road) and 7 losses to teams not in the field (5 of which are to teams not even on anyone’s board to be in the field). That is a middling NIT resume at best.
— VCU and Rutgers are both tough sells for me as tournament teams right now, but also should be in the First Four at best. At least these two teams would be in my top four out.
— San Francisco should be above the First Four. Florida is appropriately in the First Four. BYU in an NIT team (though also among my top four teams out) while Kansas State would be lucky if the CBI called. I get that the Wildcats played a very tough schedule. But you have to win games sooner or later, not just lose to good teams. K State has 4 wins against teams in the field and 4 losses to teams not in the field. I am not penalizing them for their schedule, but if you play that tough of a schedule, you cannot lose the games you play against non-tournament teams. At least their 4-4 record of wins against the field vs losses out of it is better than Memphis’ 2-7!!!
— Teams that should be in that David left out include Notre Dame (they beat Kentucky, a 1 seed according to Griggs!), Wake Forest, North Carolina (both teams have not done anything good, but really have no bad either at least), San Diego State (the Aztecs’ losses are all Tier 1, which is better than Kansas State can say) and Oregon (won 3 of 4 vs USC and UCLA).
— One last comment on Kansas State: if you want to go with another Big 12 team, I would rather see Oklahoma in the field right now. The Sooners are 1 game over .500, have 4 wins against the field and only 3 losses to teams not in it (better than K State!). Oh yeah, they also beat K State head-to-head!
— I do agree with the decision to put North Texas on the 11 line as well as David’s choice of UC-Irvine as the auto-bid team out of the Big West. At least he did something right!!!
From John:
First, a public service announcement to the Puppet:
– That said, I agree with Chad in that Auburn is more 2-seedish right now and that at least one Big 12 team should be on the top line. However, I also agree with the Puppet that Kentucky has a huge ace in the hole with a road win not only against a protected seed, but one that could easily be on the 1-line. However, I’d give Baylor a slight nod over Kansas with 11 Quad 1 wins over KU’s 10, especially with a win against Nova thrown in. I also give Baylor huge credit for staying on a winning track despite an injury to a key player.
– Putting Texas Tech on the 2 line is also a good call – sweeping Baylor en route to a 4-3 record against protected seeds does give the Red Raiders a road win against an aforementioned protected seed. Hence, I’d agree with them up here versus, say, Providence.
– Michigan State and Saint Mary’s really helped themselves this weekend – the Spartans got a much-needed win at home against Purdue to slow down their current slide, and the Gaels cemented their bid with a home win against Gonzaga. That said, is Houston really a 7-seed right now? The wheels haven’t fallen off completely just yet.
– I’m thinking Indiana-Rutgers could potentially be a play-in game this week if a bid thief surfaces during Championship week.
– And get over your anti-ACC bias. You can hold your nose by putting teams like Notre Dame, Wake and North Carolina in the field, but I wouldn’t be putting teams like Xavier, VCU and K-State above them. Xavier has completely fallen apart in the absence of Nate Johnson, VCU is very meh despite piling up road wins in a mediocre A-10 and K-State is dead on arrival with a .500 overall record right now.