The best week of the year is finally here! This is the time when we ponder the impact of McDonald’s All-Americans, the importance of having a veteran coach, and exactly how many different “Wildcats” can make the Final 4. For those of you who need some last-minute bracket advice grounded in historical facts/trends, please see below for our Sweetest 16 Suggestions. For the rest of you, enjoy the Madness!!
TIP #1: No team that lost its opening game in its conference tournament has ever gone on to win the NCAA title that same year.
STRATEGY: The extra few days of rest have not proven helpful in the past so take a long hard look at Baylor (lost to Oklahoma in the Big 12 tourney quarterfinals) before penciling them in as your champ.
TIP #2: Since 1979 only 3 national champions did not have a McDonald’s All-American on their roster (2002 Maryland/2014 UConn/2021 Baylor).
STRATEGY: A coach who cannot recruit the best high school players usually fails to win it all so beware of picking Arizona to go all the way.
TIP #3: The last coach to win a title in his very 1st year as coach at a school was Tubby Smith at Kentucky in 1998.
STRATEGY: History is not on the side of Texas Tech coach Mark Adams.
TIP #4: Since UNLV from the Big West won it all in 1990, 29 of the past 30 champs have come from a power-conference (except for UConn from the AAC in 2014): ACC (11), SEC (6), Big East (7), Pac-12 (2), Big 12 (2), Big 10 (1).
STRATEGY: You might want to think twice before picking anyone from the MWC/WCC to win it all.
TIP #5: Only 3 coaches with 4 or fewer prior tournament appearances have won the title since 1985 (Steve Fisher/Tom Izzo/Kevin Ollie).
STRATEGY: Teams like Arkansas (Eric Musselman has 4 prior tourney appearances)/Connecticut (Dan Hurley has 3 prior tourney appearances) might need a little more seasoning before they can win it all.
TIP #6: Each champ since 2002 had a strength of schedule that was among the top-75 in the nation.
STRATEGY: You have to play the best to learn how to beat the best you might want to stay away from Boise State (SOS of 82)/Colorado State (SOS of 85).
TIP #7: There are 5 active coaches who have won at least 70% of their NCAA tournament games (minimum 5 wins).
STRATEGY: Do not expect Chris Beard of Texas (71.4%)/Tom Izzo of Michigan State (70.3%) to be catching an early flight home.
TIP #8: There are 5 schools who have won at least 90% of their games in the round of 64 (minimum 5 games).
STRATEGY: Auburn (9-1)/Duke (30-4) are near-automatic in their opening games.
TIP #9: There are 9 schools who have won at least 75% of their games in the round of 32 (minimum 5 games).
STRATEGY: Arizona (18-4) is looking good vs. the Seton Hall-TCU winner if they can win their 1st round game, and if not then Kentucky (28-7) is not a bad alternative.
TIP #10: There are 7 schools who have won at least 75% of their Sweet 16 games (minimum 5 games).
STRATEGY: Michigan (14-3) Providence (4-1) have played great in their Sweet 16 games so Tennessee/Iowa should beware.
TIP #11: There are 10 schools who have won at least 70% of their Elite 8 games (minimum 5 games).
STRATEGY: Keep an eye out for some upsets in case either Houston (6-0)/Ohio State (11-4) can make it to the 2nd Sunday.
TIP #12: There are 5 schools who have won at least 70% of their Final 4 games (minimum 5 games).
STRATEGY: Kentucky is 12-5 in the Final 4 so if you pick them to survive the East Region then you might want to pick them to get all the way to the title game.
TIP #13: There are 13 schools who are undefeated in their NCAA tournament games in a specific state (minimum 5 games).
STRATEGY: Wisconsin must be thrilled with their trip to Milwaukee because they are 5-1 all-time in the state of Wisconsin.
TIP #14: There are 7 schools who have won at least 70% of their NCAA tournament games as an at-large team (minimum 5 games).
STRATEGY: Do not sleep on San Francisco because even though they did not win the WCC tourney they still have a terrific track record when they do not get an automatic bid (5-1).
TIP #15: Only 3 teams have won an NCAA title after not being in the tournament the previous year it was held (1986 Louisville/2003 Syracuse/2014 UConn).
STRATEGY: Arizona (no postseason in 2021)/Duke (no postseason in 2021) are certainly ready for primetime…but might not be ready to go all the way.
TIP #16: Murray State has played in the most NCAA tournaments (17) without ever making the Sweet 16.
STRATEGY: The Racers have also not been a single-digit seed in a decade so maybe this is the year they break the streak?