This bracket was complete on Monday, January 16th, at 12pm, est. No games that were played after that time were considered.
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READ BEFORE VIEWING: I want to make sure everyone knows what it is they are looking at. This is my own personal bracket, and it is based on what I think the field SHOULD look like if the season ended TODAY. I am NOT trying to guess the future, nor am I trying to speculate as to what the actual committee would do if today were Selection Sunday. If that is the kind of bracket you want to look at, then what is below isn’t for you at all. Check out Jon Teitel’s bracket by CLICKING HERE. He is one of the best people on the planet at guessing what the actual selection committee will do.
Below the bracket are some comments from me, and below that are some comments from the staff. I do not know why the staff is allowed to comment on my work!! It is PERFECT!! And NOTHING I do should be allowed to be disputed!!!
OTHERS CONSIDERED: Nevada, Maryland, Saint John’s, UCF, Memphis, Arizona State, Texas A&M, Utah, USC, Mississippi State, UNLV, Utah State, Sam Houston State, Virginia Tech, North Texas, Oklahoma State
COMMENTS FROM DAVID:
-Alabama is my overall #1 seed. They’ve won at Houston, and at Arkansas. Of all the teams on the #1 and #2 lines, they are the only one that’s actually beaten another #1 seed on the road.
-Gonzaga puzzles me. When I watch them play, they don’t scream #1 or #2 seed, yet I have them on my #2 line. The reason is because when I looked at their profile, it simply looks amazing with so many high caliber wins, including wins against other protected seeds, away from home. And when you look at their losses, none of them really make you hold your nose. So, there they are.
-You may notice Duke and North Carolina are squarely on the bubble. Allow me to explain. North Carolina’s only true road win was at Louisville, and Duke’s only true road win was at Boston College. Beating a non-protected seed at home, even if that team is ranked in the top 25, is something that NIT caliber teams can routinely do. It’s arguably as hard or harder to beat an NIT team on the road than it is to beat a non-protected seeded team at home, even if that team is solidly in the field. North Carolina and Duke have beaten no one in true road games.
To build on that, if a team’s key wins are at home against teams that can’t win on the road, I don’t think they particularly deserve a lot of credit for that. Beating Duke and North Carolina at home is not that hard to do. All but one team that they’ve played have done it! So that’s why you see some of the teams that have beaten them a little lower in the seedlist.
COMMENTS FROM STAFF:
FROM CHAD:
- One marquee win is not enough to be the #1 overall team. Alabama won at Houston, a team whose own profile is lacking in key wins, won at an Arkansas team that I feel David has way overseeded, and beat some bubble teams. Plus they have twice as many losses as the true #1 team — Kansas. The Jayhawks have 11 wins against the top two tiers, 6 if those coming away from home. They are 5-0 in the best conference in the country. Alabama is a very good team and a 1 seed (albeit with a current significant off-court distraction), but is not #1 overall right now. I would probably have Purdue over the Tide as well.
- I was one of the first to call Kansas State a 2 seed. But they did not look good at all in their loss at TCU this week. Griggs may still have them on the 2 line, but I think they are closer to the 4.
- I also still cannot figure out why everyone loves this Tennessee team this much. I would have them down on the 4 line also. Yes, they beat my #1 overall team (Kansas on a neutral court). After that they have not beaten anyone that is solidly in the field. And they have a loss to a Colorado team that is not even close to being in. Plus, they only have 2 true road wins, neither of which is of any note (Ole Miss and South Carolina). Given how much David values road wins, I am shocked to see the Vols on his 2 line.
- As for the teams that should be on the 2 line — UCLA is 4-0 on the road and has won 13 games in a row. Xavier is 4-0 on the road and has won 11 in a row. Both these teams are criminally low on the 4 line.
- I mentioned it earlier, but Arkansas seems to be in freefall and is probably a 7 seed at best right now. The Hogs have ZERO road wins and only one win of any note (neutral court vs San Diego State). They have now lost 3 of 4 games, including against a pair of teams not very close to the field (Vandy and LSU). I don’t understand their seeding one bit.
- Ohio State is not deserving of a 7 seed. This team is now 10-7 overall with a Tier 4 home loss to Minnesota. Their only wins against teams in or near the field are home vs Rutgers and at Northwestern. Like it or not, the Buckeyes belong on the bubble.
- West Virginia not only does not belong on the 10 line, they do not even belong in the field. The Mountaineers are 10-7 overall and their only win against the field is at Pitt. In fact, that is one of only three wins they have against the top three tiers combined. I get that their SOS is #4 in the nation — but you do have to beat teams to make the field. They simply have not done so yet. I don’t even have them in my top 12 teams out.
- I can at least understand the reason was North Carolina is so low, even if I do not agree with it. The Tar Heels have a resume that blow many of David’s higher choices out of the water with their wins over Charleston and Ohio State, and all of their losses being in Tier 1 (and the #11 SOS). Duke’s position on the #11 line is just flat out stupid. The Blue Devils have wins over 4 teams in the field, and all of their losses were to teams that David included. Maybe they belong in a 6/11 game, but as the 6 seed! (Actually, I would have them on the 5 line!)
- Not even a consideration for Michigan? The Wolverines seem to be turning things around and have 4 wins against the field while only one bad loss (albeit a horrible home one to Central Michigan). But David ignores bad home losses anyhow (see Ohio State).
- All in all, I would give David a solid F+ grade for this bracket. I was going to give him a D-, but Longwood and Youngstown State belong on the 15 line, not the 16, so he lost the final half grade. Better luck next time, Griggs.
FROM JOHN:
- I’m going to try not to repeat what Chad said about the teams he mentioned earlier, but UConn is another team that has gotten off to a fast start but is slowly regressing to the mean in conference play. I understand that trying to win at Xavier, Providence and Marquette are very difficult to do. Losing at home to St. John’s (who is maybe NIT at best) is not what protected seeds do. (Now, if Griggs used the workbook like Chad does, we could at least see if UConn is #13 overall or #16 overall)
- I know I’m the outlier on our committee when it comes to Michigan State, but if you did a blind resume involving both Michigan State and Baylor, could you really tell me one team is a 4 and the other a 7? If we’re valuing Kentucky as an NCAA Tournament-caliber team again, keep in mind that I would value wins away from home against Kentucky (neutral court), Penn State and Wisconsin. Losing at Notre Dame should carry a bit of a penalty, but not 3 seedlines.
- I also look at profiles like Saint Mary’s and Boise State and would agree that they could end up as a 7 seed and 10 seed, respectively IF we are doing projected finishes and not the checkpoint that Griggs mentioned at the top of the article. The real meat is not there yet.
- Creighton could end up like Georgia in 2001 and Vanderbilt in 2017 in that they could have a cra pton of losses but still get in the field because their schedule has been insanely tough. It was frontloaded with road games at Marquette, Xavier and UConn, so there are chances for the Bluejays to get more wins at home later in the season. They better not slip up against the Seton Halls and the Johnnies in the league, though.
- And what about the Johnnies all of a sudden? They embody everything weird about this season. They’re 13-6 and suddenly have a win at UConn that gives their resume a much-needed boost. Losing against Iowa State, Xavier, Providence and Marquette are forgivable. But losing to Seton Hall and even Villanova are dragging down their profile where, if they just win 1 of those 2 road games, I could even make a case that they should be IN the field.