It is Chad’s turn this week to take a shot at the Staff Bracket — a projection of what he feels the NCAA Tournament should look like if it was selected after all games of Sunday, February 5 were complete. Please note that this is simply his projection, and not an attempt to guess where the actual committee will be on Selection Sunday — rather it is where they SHOULD be if today was Selection Sunday! Also note that Chad presumes that his personal pick for “best team in the conference” for each league is its auto-bid winner, which may not necessarily be the current first place team.
Below is the Bracket followed by Chad’s notes. After those are comments and reactions from other HoopsHD panelists.
CHAD’s NOTES:
– Despite the loss at Indiana, I still have Purdue ranked #1 overall. Their body of work is simply still the best, although the gap has certainly closed a bit. Alabama, Houston and Texas round out the 1 seeds, with Texas moving to the top line after a huge win this weekend at Kansas State.
– Baylor is now up to the 2 line, even though they split their two games this week. The first of those games was a close loss at Texas (1 seed), which they cannot be faulted for. In addition, having Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua back this weekend is huge for this team, and they should now be considered a serious national championship contender.
– I ended up with St. Mary’s and Gonzaga back-to-back at 16 and 17 on my seed list. Given that the Gaels just beat Gonzaga Saturday night, the choice was simple. St. Mary’s is now a protected seed, just barely cracking the 4 line!
– Arkansas somehow found a way to finally get a road win, albeit against the worst team in the SEC (South Carolina) and only by 2 points. That is enough to keep the Razorbacks in the field — for now.
– My last two teams in were West Virginia and Mississippi State. I get that there are 4 teams above Mississippi State in the SEC standings that did not get in, that the Bulldogs are only 3-7 in conference, and that I left out a team (Texas A&M) that is 8-2 in that same league. The fact is that Miss State has no bad losses and has two huge non-conference wins over teams that are protected seeds (Marquette and TCU). I just like that better than anyone that I left out — although honestly I am seriously holding my nose when I look at their profile.
– My top four teams out, in order, were Wisconsin (I love the wins, but they have too many losses), Seton Hall (this team is rising fast and may make my field by next week), Texas A&M (plenty of chances ahead to jump into the field) and North Carolina (I hate to admit that David Griggs was correct, but I just think their profile…well…sucks; however, 6 of their last 8 regular season games are against top 100 teams and that can quickly change with some wins). Also considered were Virginia Tech, Penn State, Arizona State, Florida, Oregon, Utah State, Wake Forest, Michigan, Loyola Marymount, Utah, Tulane and Kent State.
– Among the “Under the Radar” leagues, Florida Atlantic remained inside the bubble, on the 10 line, despite the loss at UAB. VCU and College of Charleston have profiles that are not too far behind the last teams in, despite CofC losing another game this past week. I also greatly appreciate a complete lack of Tier 4 losses for Maryland-Eastern Shore — a fact that has a real good chance to get them above the First Four and out of Dayton.
– Finally, if you look at the matchups, you will see a few possible conference games in the second round with Virginia-Duke and Alabama-Kentucky. These teams only play once in the regular season. Therefore, unless they meet in their conference tournament, this is perfectly acceptable and the committee would not move either team to a different region to avoid this rematch.
COMMENTS FROM JOHN:
– While I must congratulate Saint Mary’s on taking a commanding lead in the WCC, one home win does not make them a protected seed by itself. Their only other win against a solid NCAA Tournament was against San Diego State on a neutral court, but they are a #7 seed per Chad. Gonzaga still has neutral court wins against Alabama (1), Xavier (4) and Michigan State (9) along with a “neutral” home win against Kentucky.
– We are really in a parallel universe this year when it comes to Northwestern. They have a resume that includes wins at Michigan State, at Indiana and at Wisconsin. And yet they have three losses combined against Ohio State and Michigan that are not sniffing an NCAA bid unless they get the auto bid on Selection Sunday. Yet they are 6-3 away from home, so this is one of the more difficult teams to place.
– If we’re talking about two teams that seem to load up on Tier 2-type wins, Boise State and North Carolina seem to lead that list. Yet Chad has Boise State on his 9-line and apparently has allowed the Puppet to compromise his bracket to the point where North Carolina is not included. I would really be curious to hear what Joby says about Carolina, yet I’m not seeing any wins by the Heels against NCAA teams outside of NC State and Charleston at home.
– Virginia Tech is another compelling team to look at when it comes to injuries; 4 of the Hokies’ losses came when Hunter Cattoor was injured. When healthy, they have a win against bubble buddy Penn State on a neutral court. I should also add that North Carolina, Duke and Virginia failed to storm the Cassell this season. And I should also add that their record right now is very similar to last season when they ended up getting the auto bid out of the ACC.
– We all owe a debt of gratitude to Richmond for their win yesterday; I am convinced that Chad would have found a way to get Fordham in his field had the Rams won yesterday.
COMMENTS FROM DAVID GRIGGS:
-It seems like every year there are one or two teams that in the preseason the consensus of the people is that they will be good. Then the team isn’t good, but the people just can’t let go of them. One of those teams this year is North Carolina, who Chad did not select (THANK GOD!!). The other is Arkansas. Arkansas has done a few things, and I suppose if this were debate class and my assignment was to make a case for Arkansas it wouldn’t be a complete impossibility. In addition to having a flimsy profile (at best), they just aren’t that good on the court. They did look good in their game at Baylor. That may be the most impressed I’ve been with them all season despite the loss. But they did not look good AT ALL against South Carolina, and barely beat a team that is so far from the bubble that they couldn’t see it with a high powered telescope. I think by the end of the year, teams like Florida (who wasn’t selected but was apparently looked at) will clearly be ahead of the Razorbacks in most seedlists.
-I don’t know about Texas on the #1 line, but they Horns are definitely in the debate. They have a very strong case. If they win at Kansas tonight it is no longer a debate. In fact they should probably be the close to the #1 overall seed if they can pull that off.
-Saint Mary’s vs Gonzaga is also interesting. In looking at the WCC, SMC is clearly better. They are two games ahead of the Zags in the standings, they’ve won their games more convincingly, and..oh yeah…they won the first head to head game. But Gonzaga’s overall resume tops out way ahead of SMC’s. I personally still have Gonzaga ahead of them, but I understand the case that Saint Mary’s is better.
-But, I still have A LOT of problems with this bracket!! Mostly because CHAD IS WHO MADE IT!!!